Thread by @crypto_klay

1/ If you watched #FantomUnchained, the $FTM man (@FTMAlerts), discussed an interesting indicator in Dollar Currency Index: DXY.

I'm no macro economist. But, I can read 🙃 so I did some digging 🧵

Here is a historical chart of US GPD vs. DXY ending in 2020 = moving correlation!

2/ In 2021, when this chart was released GPD fell YoY:

2020 = -3.4% GDP (red decline)

2020 was the worst year for economic growth since WWII, coronavirus ravaged factories, businesses & households.

The chart maker expected 2021 to continue GPD decline (I.E. DXY headwinds)...

3/ BUT, thats not how it went.

2021 saw real GDP grow 5.5 percent, the fastest pace for any year since 1984, fueled by increased inventory investment and increased service spending.

2021 GPD = +5.5% (factoring in inflation)

With GPD growth, DXY rocketed 🚀 (bottom yellow box)

4/ 2017 & 2020 was the last time DXY was at its current level. Rejected twice off resistance, triggering major bull runs in $BTC, as DXY was falling, top yellow boxes ☝️

Timing wise, those yellow box rejections align perfectly with the start of mega bull runs on $BTC, see below

5/ But wait, $BTC set a new ATH in 2021. True!

We saw institutional & worldwide adoption change the market forever, as billions poured in

BUT, we've also seen mass volatility through 2021 + a sideways crab market since; as the DXY climbed ever higher...a DXY volatility battle?

6/ Now present day - the top box below:

DXY is sitting at a strong resistance zone 103-104 previously established in 2017, 2020

We COULD expect a bearish reversal or at least any kind of rejection here. Unless the bulls take over by breaking above with a clean candle close...

7/ A break above would be no bueno for $BTC, and thus, all of us...stating it clearly, DXY strength has created BTC weakness & volatility.

While, a strong rejection off the 103-104 resistance zone could signal something major is ahead...

8/ Clay, WTF is your point man?!?

Well, if we remember first chart: GPD & DXY seem to have strong correlated movement (see tweet 1).

Interestingly, Q1 2022 GDP numbers are in & US GPD tanked -1.4%

If GDP & DXY move in tandem, then the poss. of DXY resistance rejection is real

9/ Permabulls and $BTC maxi's have called for "an extended cycle" for ages now. Cries for $130K, $150K BTC...

I'm not even going to go there. I've no idea!

But, a DXY rejection has triggered the last 2 major bull runs. What will happen this time?!?

That's what we will watch...

10/ Again, I'm no macro economist & there a ton of other factors at play. I'm sure some CT Econ majors could throw 40 stones at me here. Thats fine!

Also, the stats below are also very interesting...What do the whales know that I don't?

Probably a lot!

https://twitter.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1518430311801098242

11/ Like it or not, $FTM and it's alts go where $BTC goes...

I'll be paying very close attention to what happens next with the DXY. It's clearly been an important indicator...

If historically accurate, the current GPD decline could assist us in the rejection process 🤞

12/ Only time will tell...

But it's always cool to dig into some macro econ trends to learn from the past...

Inevitably, $FTM will have its day in the sun one way or another 🌞

But, let's see how this plays out $FTM fam! 🤜🤛

Post Script...

https://twitter.com/GertvanLagen/status/1519624963619233793