Thread by @WarintheFuture

It is 64 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today, an examination of the implications of Gerasimov ‘taking charge’ of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 1/20

2/20 There are unconfirmed reports that General Gerasimov has moved to Ukraine and may be taking overall command of the Russian campaign. This is still in the realm of speculation. Therefore lets use this thread as a bit of a thought experiment.

3/20 General Gerasimov is the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. He was appointed to this position by President Putin in November 2012.

4/20 Why is the chief Russian military commander taking over what is essentially a theatre command? If confirmed, this would be a significant intervention, probably directed by Putin, and may see a change in how Russian operations are planned and executed.

5/20 It is very unusual for the most senior military leader of a nation to ‘step down’ and assume an operational command. It is an indicator that Putin is running out of options for his Ukraine special operation. There are also some interesting strategic and operational impacts.

6/20 Strategic impacts. Who replaces him? Gerasimov has led the Russian military in their reforms for the past decade. He also commands the day to day running of the entire military, including strategic forces. It is not a position that should be left unfilled for long.

7/20 If Gerasimov goes to Ukraine, and no-one replaces him, who will oversee overall Russian military operations and development in short term, as well as any mobilisation?

8/20 Does it mean Russian military strategy will improve, or get even worse? Despite the mythic status of Gerasimov before the war, the performance of the Russian military he oversees – strategic to tactical – has been quite sub-par. realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/…

9/20 And not only has it been ineffective on the battlefield, but the atrocities also it has committed – city destruction, deliberate targeting of civilians, torture and murder – are indicative of a corrupt professional ethos. Gerasimov is ultimately responsible for this.

10/20 Finally, what does this mean about Putin’s mindset? Has he lost faith in Gerasimov?

11/20 In WW2, General MacArthur appointed UA Army General Robert Eichelberger to command US forces at Buna. Before departing, Eichelberger was told "Bob, I want you to take Buna, or not come back alive." Has Gerasimov been given a similar directive by Putin?

12/20 Or has both Putin and Defence Minister Shoigu set up Gerasimov as the fall guy for any Russian failure in the war?

13/20 Operational impacts. It appears, if Gerasimov’s appointment is confirmed, to place General Dvornikov’s appointment in a new light. Perhaps Gerasimov might be the overall joint commander, with Dvornikov assuming the function of land component commander.

14/20 Perhaps General Dvornikov has not proved the competent joint commander the Russian hoped for, or has not met strategic timelines for success.

15/20 Gerasimov is renowned as a military theorist. Despite the fact that his ideas are yet to be proven on the battlefield in Ukraine, perhaps Gerasimov might bring an improved level of joint planning and execution to Russian operations. Its a big maybe.

16/20 To do this, Gerasimov would need a joint planning staff. He will need more than a couple of command vehicles, an aide-de-camp and a secure satellite phone if he is to exert real command authority over Russian operations in Ukraine.

17/20 Good generals can generally be found in only a couple of places on the battlefield: at the location of most danger and the location of most opportunity. They do this so they can best marshal resources to support the commander on the ground, and to provide leadership.

18/20 Gerasimov would be going to the Russian Army’s place of most danger & opportunity. Most dangerous because a loss in the east would probably see a long pause in operations for the Russians to regenerate forces & rethink strategy. And would have a political impact for Putin.

19/20 And it is the place of most opportunity because it is probably the only location where Russia has any chance of an operational breakthrough that could allow them to tell their citizens (and their international friends) that the Russian military was successful in Ukraine.

20/20 Gerasimov, until recently, was seen as one of the better Russian theorists of the modern era. However, his reforms have not resulted in battlefield success. It is unlikely his presence on the battlefield, in charge of a tactically mediocre Russian force, will change things.