Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow for Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
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2/ The signs earlier in the week had pointed to a more productive meeting. President Trump had rolled back his narrative about Zelenskyy being a dictator, and the minerals agreement may have seen America having an enduring interest in the security of Ukraine. All that disintegrated in an explosive, unseemly exchange between Zelenskyy, Trump and Vance.
2/ The response from the people of #Ukraine, to unite and fight whether they were soldier or civilian, inspired us all. In the Battle of #Kyiv and many other battles on the ground, at sea, in the air and in the hearts of minds of people around the world since, the innovation, resilience, courage and essential goodness of the Ukrainian people has stood out.
2/ Implication 1: Every Military Will Want It. I expect that there will be a rush by military and intelligence agencies across the western world to download and testing it extensively.
2/ The 7 key endeavours are:
2/ The UGVs were apparently supported throughout the activity by FPV drones. While this doesn’t make the attack fully autonomous – the vehicles need human operators – it is one of the more significant examples of drone combat in this war.
2/ First, I explored the key lessons from the war in #Ukraine since the Russian large-scale invasion in 2022. I proposed 7 major lessons, although time & more analysis will produce others. These include meshed civ-mil intelligence collection / analysis, drone warfare, leadership and the adaptation battle.
2/ Putin used this missile as a direct response to recent U.S. administration decisions to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied ATACMs missiles against a wider range of targets inside Russia, particularly targets related to the Ukrainian campaign in Kursk. He notes this in his speech.
2/ Even though the situation for #Ukraine at the 1000-day mark is forbidding, the trajectory of this war is not cast in steel. To prevent continued Russian gains on the battlefield, and to stop any attempt at forcing Ukraine to the negotiate under unfavourable terms, what changes might be required?
2/ A report in The Telegraph describes an evolved plan that includes a buffer zone, freezing the conflict, Russia retaining currently held territory, ‘pumping Ukraine full of US weapons’ to deter Russia and deferring Ukraine’s NATO membership for years.
2/ On 13 October, President Zelenskyy announced the anticipated deployment of North Korea troops’ to Ukraine. In the past 48 hours, the head of NATO, Mark Rutte, described how “North Korea sending troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine would mark a significant escalation.”
2/ Apparently there are also three classified elements of the Victory Plan. These will be briefed separately to lawmakers. They were probably briefed to foreign leaders during Zelenskyy’s recent trip to the UK, France, Italy and Germany.
2/ Just last week, Taiwan celebrated its national day. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te gave an address on 10 October that included a statement that China "has no right to represent Taiwan" and that his mission as president would be to "resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty."
2/ Support in the Australian community for Ukraine remains very high. As the 2024 Lowy Poll found:
2/ To inform this exploration of lessons, we need to understand the components and functions of the Ukrainian strike complex.
2/ Currently, there is no published U.S. strategy specifically for the war in #Ukraine. After 31 months, the Biden administration is still using crisis management, speeches and slogans such as ‘for as long as it takes’ rather than developing and executed a clear, well resourced strategy for Ukraine.
2/ In Russia, Ukraine’s Kursk campaign continues although advances in the past week have been fewer than in the initial part of their post-break through exploitation operations. Russia’s response has gathered momentum.