The U.S. President, Donald Trump, had another conversation with Russia’s president today. The two-hour conversation focused primarily on Ukraine peace negotiations but also covered other topics related to the America-Russia relationship. 1/5 2/ The discussion between Trump and Putin indicates that we are at the start of a new phase in the Ukraine War, and in negotiations over war termination. America has cast off any pretentions of being a central player in peace negotiations moving forward. In essence, Trump has done what many feared in the lead up to the November 2024 presidential elections. He has thrown Ukraine under the bus in the hope that he can make money in Russia.

Western governments and military institutions face an array of contemporary warfighting challenges which require rapid solutions. It comprises an intellectual deficit in our military institutions. What are they, and how might they be addressed? 1/7 (Image: @DefenceU) 2/ The ground war remains largely static. Where advances have been made, they are achieved at very large costs. The drone & missile war has more dynamism. However, it is still yet to prove politically or strategically decisive.

I have just published my latest weekly update on the war in #Ukraine, and the competition/confrontation with China in the Pacific. This week: Xi and Putin's are 'Friends of Steel', the back and forth of Ukraine peace negotiations, Russia's declining returns on its massive casualties. 1/6 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU) 2/ Peace negotiations continue, without much progress. European leaders visited Ukraine this week and endorsed along with @ZelenskyyUa a 30 day ceasefire in the war. Trump has also called for a 30 day ceasefire.

It is the night before Russia's Victory Day parade, and all through Moscow, air defenders are stirring. There has been a lot of discussion about the potential for a Ukrainian attack during the parade, so I thought I would explore this issue in more detail. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 2/ The head of Ukrainian military intelligence General Budanov intimated in his own way that the Russians should “bring ear plugs”. But what might be the strategic rationale for a Ukrainian attack against the 9 May Victory Day parade in Moscow?

There has been a lot of coverage about the Ukrainian uncrewed vessel shooting down at least one, possibly two Russian fighter bombers recently. It is a significant moment in 21st century war. But military institutions have much to do to exploit such capabilities. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦
(Image: Naval News) 2/ Over the last year, there have been multiple events where uncrewed systems have launched other uncrewed systems and weapons to attack Russian forces. This has occured at sea and on land. It represents next generation robotic warfare.

I have just published my latest weekly update on the war in Ukraine, and the competition/confrontation with China in the Pacific. This week I explore Russia's '3-day peace' proposal, Russian casualties, the minerals deal, and the North Koreans learn and adapt. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU) 2/ The minerals deal is interesting. In 2017 Trump agreed with the President of Afghanistan that the US would help Afghanistan with its minerals. Trump then went behind Ghani’s back to negotiate an exit from Afghanistan with the Taliban. We should not expect too much from the U.S.-Ukraine agreement.

An Easter truce has been declared by Putin. Not only is this a cynical act of someone who has sustained his aim to subjugate #Ukraine, it has huge practical challenges. So why has Putin done this and what does it mean for the war? 1/10 🧵
politico.eu/article/putin-… 2/ The truce is a short one - about a day. It is a truce that Putin has called unilaterally, so it is not binding on the Ukrainians in any way. That Putin has done this shows that he still believes that he has the upper hand in the war, and can dictate its tempo.

Over the past three years, both sides in the #Ukraine war have learned and adapted. Battlefield, strategic and international collaboration and adaptation are accelerating and intensifying, resulting in a global Adaptation War. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦 2/ In my latest piece, I examine how Ukraine and Russia have both 'learned to learn better' since the Russian full-scale invasion in 2022. I also look at their key battlefield and strategic adaptations.

In short, the ‘leader of the free world’ is considering siding fully with a brutal authoritarian, endorsing its invasion of a democracy, and agreeing with forced territorial expansion. 1/7 🧵 🇺🇦
reuters.com/world/trump-en… 2/ This will legitimise and encourage the same behaviour elsewhere in Europe by Putin, who is already conducting subversion and sabotage across the continent, and preparing his military for future aggression against other nations in Eastern Europe. The current posture and signalling from the Trump administration makes future war elsewhere in Europe almost certain.

China admits its latest aggression around #Taiwan is a rehearsal for a blockade. This latest exercise is described as "stern warning and forceful deterrence" by an Eastern Theater Commander spokesman. A quick examination of the exercise and its purpose. 1/9 🧵
channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/chin… 2/ The spokesman also described the latest exercise as focusing on "sea-air combat-readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, assault on maritime and ground targets, and blockade on key areas and sea lanes." Besides the obvious messaging and the application of military power to bully and coerce Taiwan, as well as other regional countries, into accepting Chinese pre-eminence over the Western Pacific region, why is China doing this now?

From the nation that brought us the Marshall Plan, we now have this proposal for the “Trump Plan” for #Ukraine. Where the Marshall Plan embraced enlightened self-interest by America, the Trump plan is predatory, and basically an extortion bid against the people of Ukraine. 1/7

https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1905297287221272735

2/ Where the Marshall Plan was extended in scope to push back on Communism and Soviet influence and Europe, the Trump Plan basically employs Russian & Chinese economic coercion measures, and will negatively impact U.S. reputation in Europe.

“This is going to be great television…I will say that.” This is how the American president summed up the conclusion of the most fractious meeting to have occurred in front of journalists between an American president and his foreign counterpart in the modern era. An assessment of the Oval Office ambush of President Zelenskyy. 1/10🧵(Image: C-Span) 2/ The signs earlier in the week had pointed to a more productive meeting. President Trump had rolled back his narrative about Zelenskyy being a dictator, and the minerals agreement may have seen America having an enduring interest in the security of Ukraine. All that disintegrated in an explosive, unseemly exchange between Zelenskyy, Trump and Vance.

Three years ago today, the military forces of Russia launched an attack across the borders of #Ukraine on the ground and from the air. As Russian troops drove down roads in the hope of a short war and a victory parade in Kyiv, they received a mighty surprise. 1/16 🧵🇺🇦 2/ The response from the people of #Ukraine, to unite and fight whether they were soldier or civilian, inspired us all. In the Battle of #Kyiv and many other battles on the ground, at sea, in the air and in the hearts of minds of people around the world since, the innovation, resilience, courage and essential goodness of the Ukrainian people has stood out.

A good graphic from @detresfa_ showing where the totally unnecessary and unprofessional Chinese live fire off Sydney was planned. Why has China done this? A short thread. 1/9 🧵

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1892894717597405397

2/ The most obvious reason is to point out that if Australia conducts freedom of navigation exercises off the Chinese coast, it can reciprocate. But unlike China, Australia doesn’t have a nine dot line beyond the 12m limit where it seeks to deny international maritime traffic.

The formation of corps for Ukrainian land forces and national guard formations (subject to official confirmation) will be interesting to watch. There will be a few challenges however, and how Ukraine addresses these will indicate just how effective these new corps might be. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦 2/ First, good Corps have Corps level units and formations that shape the battlespace, weight main efforts, reinforce success, and enable the various elements of the current fight. In the current environment, this includes EW, engineers, fires, info ops, logistics, ISR and drones. Will the new Corps have these?

In my latest piece, I conduct a quick assessment of the potential military implications of the release of DeepSeek-R1. There are a few. 1/7 🧵 2/ Implication 1: Every Military Will Want It. I expect that there will be a rush by military and intelligence agencies across the western world to download and testing it extensively.

This is a useful assessment of the situation on the ground in eastern #Ukraine, from the Ukrainian perspective, by @pravda_eng. A number of issues, some specified & some implied, are apparent. 1/8 🧵🇺🇦
pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2… 2/ First, the issues specified in the article. Shortfalls in infantry numbers and training, deficiencies in brigade C2, ammunition quality issues, and false reporting about the situation. None of these are particularly new issues. Any one would be concerning. The combination is alarming.

This week, I published a two-part article that reviewed the seven key elements of the war in #Ukraine that are likely to have the most influence on the trajectory of the war in 2025. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU) 2/ The 7 key endeavours are:
- The Ground War.
- The Strategic Strike and Air Defence War.
- The Mobilization War.
- The Economic War.
- The Robot and Algorithm War.
- The War of Narratives.
- The Learning and Adaptation War.

A useful update from @IAPonomarenko. In 2025, the West must not rush to force #Ukraine into an unjust peace with a brutal regime that began an unnecessary war, fought it poorly, used its military to rape, loot, torture and murder its way across a neighbour, and is unlikely to abide by any ceasefire agreement. 1/7 🧵 2/ 20th century politicians (eventually) came to understand that the rise of fascist, aggressive regimes like contemporary Russia (and Nazi Germany) had only one solution: defeat of their physical and ideological means of aggression against their neighbours.

In the past 48 hours, reports have emerged of a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions near the village of Lyptsi in the Kharkiv region. The attack utilised dozens of uncrewed ground combat vehicles (UGV). 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 2/ The UGVs were apparently supported throughout the activity by FPV drones. While this doesn’t make the attack fully autonomous – the vehicles need human operators – it is one of the more significant examples of drone combat in this war.

This week, I provided the latest assessment on the relevance of Ukraine lessons to the Pacific at a seminar in Jakarta. I have expanded on this for a new article. 1/5 🧵 2/ First, I explored the key lessons from the war in #Ukraine since the Russian large-scale invasion in 2022. I proposed 7 major lessons, although time & more analysis will produce others. These include meshed civ-mil intelligence collection / analysis, drone warfare, leadership and the adaptation battle.