Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | @CSIS Fellow | @LowyInstitute | #BannedInRussia
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Mar 24 7 tweets 2 min read
Ukraine reinforces that Crimea is still on the agenda, and that they retain an objective of making the presence of the Russian military there untenable. But this is part of a wider, adaptive strategic strike program. 1/7 🧵 2/ This is also another illustration of the sophisticated collection, analysis, planning and execution capabilities of Ukraine’s evolving strategic strike system, which uses both Western and indigenous missiles and drones.
Mar 19 22 tweets 4 min read
The Putin re-election campaign is now complete. What might this mean for Russian military #strategy as we shift into the northern spring and summer? 1/22 🧵🇺🇦
kyivindependent.com/western-leader… 2/ Clearly, the main effort will remain its campaign to subjugate Ukraine by degrading and destroying its tactical forces, conducting strike operations against operational, strategic and civilian targets, and its ongoing diplomatic and strategic influence operations.
Mar 6 11 tweets 2 min read
An interesting account of a recent Ukrainian attack against a Russian warship in the Black Sea. Like many elements of how technologies, strategies and tactics are constantly evolving in this war, there are some important strategic takeaways. 1/11 🧵
twz.com/sea/russian-sh… 2/ First, this adds to the evidentiary case for western navies to accelerate their investigation and investment in these systems. While many nations can build large warships, just about every nation can construct these smaller, low-signature attack drones.
Mar 2 25 tweets 6 min read
I recently shared this post from @visegrad24 but wanted to expand a little more on the implications of such ground-based uncrewed systems for contemporary and future land warfare. 1/25 🧵 🇺🇦 2/ Way back in 2018, I published this report with @CSBAdc about human machine teaming and the potential of uncrewed systems in warfare, and ground warfare in particular. So much has changed since then. csbaonline.org/research/publi…
Feb 17 25 tweets 5 min read
The Ukrainian city of #Avdiivka has apparently fallen. In a Telegram post, C-in-C General Syrskyi notes that “I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines.” What are the implications? 1/25 🧵🇺🇦
nytimes.com/2024/02/17/wor… 2/ There will be tactical, strategic and political implications of the fall of #Avdiivka. Tactically, Ukrainian ground troops will need to fall back on prepared defensive positions. This will be essential so Russia cannot follow up retreating troops and exploit beyond #Avdiivka.
Feb 8 8 tweets 2 min read
This reform agenda, laid out in President Zelenskyy's speech today about the dismissal of General Zaluzhnyi, is worth studying. There are some very interesting aspects. 1/8 🧵 Image 2/ First, a strategy for 2024. Clearly the President is unhappy with the current proposed military strategy for #Ukraine in the coming year. Getting this right, and balancing defensive and offensive operations as well as reconstituting the force, is a big task.
Feb 1 15 tweets 3 min read
General Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, has just published an opinion piece at @CNN. It doesn’t cover dismissal but does explore important strategic dimensions of the war going forward. There are several key themes. 1/15 🧵
edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/opi…
Image 2/ The first theme is “understand the war you are in”. Not only is this vital at the start of a war, but also throughout. As the character of a conflict evolves, as this one has, military organisations must adapt their tactics, organisations and strategies.
Jan 31 26 tweets 5 min read
The past 48 hours have seen much speculation about President Zelenskyy having decided to remove General Zaluzhnyi from his appointment as Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Of course, this is not a new story. But what might be the implications? 1/25 🧵 Image 2/ The tensions in this relationship have been apparent for some time. During my first 2023 visit to #Ukraine early last year, I was informed that Zaluzhnyi had been forbidden from speaking to the press without Presidential approval.
Jan 24 15 tweets 4 min read
Today’s downing of an IL-76 inside Russia is yet another indication of the maturing Ukrainian strike complex, which encompasses long range attacks against ground, maritime and aerial targets to degrade Russia’ strategic war-making capacity. 1/15 🧵 Image 2/ The downing of IL-76 is just the latest example of Ukraine ‘stretching’ its air defence capabilities by forward deploying longer range systems and ambushing high-value Russia air force assets.
wsj.com/world/ukraine-…
Jan 15 9 tweets 2 min read
This is becoming a growing scandal for the Australian government, which refuses to provide reasonable answers to questions about why these aircraft can’t be transferred to #Ukraine. 1/9 🧵 2/ For those who propose they are ‘too complex’ for Ukraine to operate, I present the evidence of M1 and Leopard 2 tanks, HiMARS, SCALP missiles and the Patriot air defence system. All of which Ukraine has mastered.
Jan 8 17 tweets 4 min read
Battlefield failure can be the harbinger of defeat, or the beginning of adaptation & intellectual renewal that leads to victory. This is the challenge that faces #Ukraine after President Zelensky accepted that the 2023 counteroffensive failed to meets its objectives. 1/17 🧵 Image 2/ This was accompanied by the late 2023 paper by General Zaluzhny on Positional Warfare. Unfortunately, too many have equated positional warfare with stalemate. That is unfortunate because they are certainly not the same.
Dec 29, 2023 18 tweets 4 min read
A shocking series of Russian massed missile and drone attacks across #Ukraine. What does Putin & Russia aim to achieve, and what do the attacks tell us about the coercive power of strategic air, missile and drone attacks? 1/18 🧵 2/ At its most simple, these attacks are a larger scale version of the type of attacks on civilian infrastructure that Russia has mastered during this war. They aim to terrorise, and degrade civilian morale.
Dec 28, 2023 15 tweets 4 min read
A short thread on the year ahead. At Duntroon officer training, we were told on morning parades to ‘ponder the day ahead’. It was wise advice. Currently, strategists will be pondering the year ahead for national security affairs. 1/15🧵 Image 2/ In #Ukraine, Russia seeks to project an air of inevitable victory with a range of offensive activities. This is important tactically, as they seek to reverse Ukrainian gains from 2023.
Dec 13, 2023 19 tweets 3 min read
This week, President Zelenskyy again travelled to Washington DC to discuss assistance for #Ukraine. What might we take away from his visit? 1/19 🧵

politico.com/news/2023/12/1… 2/ First, the adulation with which he was received last December has largely evaporated. With recent polls indicating growing U.S. disinterest in supporting Ukraine, some members of Congress see little interest in supporting this issue if it impacts their electoral prospects.
Nov 18, 2023 10 tweets 3 min read
Since the release of the Zaluzhnyy paper, there has been discussion about how to help #Ukraine break out of Positional Warfare. There is no big secret way to do this. It requires just one thing from the West: Commitment. 1/10 🧵
mickryan.substack.com/p/breaking-out…
Image 2/ Western nations must commit anew to their aid to #Ukraine. This commitment has four elements: strategic, industrial, innovation and informational.
Nov 14, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
An update on Russian force structure changes. In the short term, these focus on #Ukraine ops & the shift towards Brigade & Division size formations, as well as expansion in the VDV. 1/9 🧵 ’s-military-restructuring-and-expansion-hindered-ukraine-war understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image 2/ The VDV expansion probably recognises their capability and flexibility during operations in #Ukraine. Interesting to watch the future of the current commander.
Nov 1, 2023 7 tweets 1 min read
“The war is now moving to a new stage: what we in the military call “positional” warfare of static and attritional fighting, as in the first world war, in contrast to the “manoeuvre” warfare of movement and speed.” An interview with @CinC_AFU ($)m 1/7m economist.com/by-invitation/… 2/ “This will benefit Russia, allowing it to rebuild its military power, eventually threatening Ukraine’s armed forces and the state itself.”
Oct 31, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
The latest from @War_Mapper on Israel’s assault into #Gaza. The plan appears to be to isolate Gaza City and northern Gaza in the initial phase of the advance. What does this mean? 1/7 🧵 2/ While doing this, the IDF will also be seeking to find Hamas infrastructure in northern Gaza and to minimise Hamas fighters heading south. This will involve crewed and uncrewed aircraft as well as electronic recon, HUMINT and ground operations.
Oct 20, 2023 12 tweets 3 min read
An Israeli advance into #Gaza, which many have forecast since the 7 October #Hamas attacks, appears to be on the cusp of being launched. The coming weeks are likely to be bloody and full of surprises. Some thoughts on key challenges ahead. 1/12 🧵(Pic: @thewarzonewire) Image 2/ Challenge 1: Aligning political purpose and military objectives. The impending military operation in and around Gaza must have clear political objectives in mind. These objectives must then inform Israel's military strategy and operations.
Oct 17, 2023 19 tweets 5 min read
Today marks 600 days since the large-scale Russian invasion of #Ukraine in February 2022. But as @ChristopherJM rightly points out, it is actually 3525 days since the beginning of Russia’s invasion and attempts to subjugate Ukraine. 1/19 🧵 Image 2/ At various points in this war, we have noted the passing of days partly because it might drive Ukraine’s supporters to speed up and expand their military and economic aid in order to assist #Ukraine to win more quickly.
Oct 7, 2023 14 tweets 3 min read
Israel has been subject to a large-scale and multi domain surprise assault by Hamas. What do we know, what might be the aims of #Hamas, and what might happen in the hours ahead? 1/14 🧵
mickryan.substack.com/p/assault-on-i…
Image 2/ First, this is a multi-domain surprise attack. Air, sea and ground elements have all be employed and Hamas are certain to be using this for its domestic, regional and global influence operations.