Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow for Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
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2/ Theme 1. Most of the weapons and platforms were not brand new, but generally, every land, air and sea platform was more modern than that in the inventories of western military organisations. Newer does not always mean better however. While most western military equipment has been tested in Iraq, #Ukraine and elsewhere, none of China's new kit has.
2/ In my latest piece, I explore the concept of a Pacific drone wall built by China, and how tomorrow’s PLA parade might preview some of its new components. There has been much speculation about the new weaponry that might be unveiled during the 3 September parade. Two key systems that are likely to receive a lot of attention are missiles and drones.
2/ This week, Russia's General Gerasimov provided an update on the war in Ukraine. Among his insights, Russia won't stop until it achieves its objectives, and that Russia holds the strategic initiative. He also discussed Russia's attacks on 'industrial targets' in Ukraine. 
2/ The impact of Ukraine's long-range strike campaign shows that Russia can only be handed a victory through a political process, which is why Putin is so desperate to convince the Trump administration about land transfers, and deny the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine.
2/ First, Putin appeared to be more upbeat at the press conference than Trump did. While Trump did not appear downcast, there was a marked disparity in the overall posture of the two leaders. This indicates that no overall agreement has been reached but that some small points of common ground may have been agreed.
2/ The Russians appear to be in the final phases of their double envelopment of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. The Russian campaign for Pokrovsk, which has been a long series of large and small battles, has been underway for more than a year. Russia also continued its large scale bombardment of Ukraine’s cities this week, targeting infrastructure and civilian morale. The largest attack in the past week was on 21 July, when the Russians launched 450 missiles and drones against targets inside Ukraine.
2/ Despite Chinese protestations they are not a party to the war and that it seeks peace talks, Wang Yi has confirmed the strategic lens through which China actually views the war. Their calculus is this: China benefits from prolonging the war in Ukraine.
2/ For some time, it has been clear that the four major authoritarian regimes – Iran, North Korea, China and Russia – have a shared interest in degrading American influence and destroying the post-WW2 order. This has led to a range of different agreements, leader summits and collaborative relationships between these four nations. It may have begun years ago but has been accelerated since 2022 by the war in Ukraine.
2/ To attack Iran, Israel had to first work its way through proxies closer to Israel, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. At some cost, Israel was able to remove these two organisations as consequential threats, which then left Iran as Israel’s key adversary. But Iran, through its lack of learning from how Israel destroyed the Iranian proxy forces around Israel, left itself open to the kind of attack that it is now enduring.
2/ I think these are the ten key issues, and questions, at the 24 hour mark of the war. I will cover a couple briefly.
2/ The attacks, part of a longer campaign to place cumulative pressure on Russia’s economy, political leaders and war-making capacity, will probably not be a decisive turning point in the war. They will however have a military impact.
2/ What is Putin trying to do? Putin has, so far, successfully strung the American president along without any negative impacts. He will try to continue this while watching with glee the corrosive relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy.
2/ This weekend, we see Putin conform to his worst instincts & unleash large-scale missile & drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. Dozens of Ukrainians have been killed or wounded. His massive attacks on Ukraine over the weekend are indicative of Putin’s mindset now: “Trump has walked away so anything goes.”
2/ The discussion between Trump and Putin indicates that we are at the start of a new phase in the Ukraine War, and in negotiations over war termination. America has cast off any pretentions of being a central player in peace negotiations moving forward. In essence, Trump has done what many feared in the lead up to the November 2024 presidential elections. He has thrown Ukraine under the bus in the hope that he can make money in Russia.
2/ The ground war remains largely static. Where advances have been made, they are achieved at very large costs. The drone & missile war has more dynamism. However, it is still yet to prove politically or strategically decisive.
2/ Peace negotiations continue, without much progress. European leaders visited Ukraine this week and endorsed along with @ZelenskyyUa a 30 day ceasefire in the war. Trump has also called for a 30 day ceasefire.
2/ The head of Ukrainian military intelligence General Budanov intimated in his own way that the Russians should “bring ear plugs”. But what might be the strategic rationale for a Ukrainian attack against the 9 May Victory Day parade in Moscow?
2/ Over the last year, there have been multiple events where uncrewed systems have launched other uncrewed systems and weapons to attack Russian forces. This has occured at sea and on land. It represents next generation robotic warfare.
2/ The minerals deal is interesting. In 2017 Trump agreed with the President of Afghanistan that the US would help Afghanistan with its minerals. Trump then went behind Ghani’s back to negotiate an exit from Afghanistan with the Taliban. We should not expect too much from the U.S.-Ukraine agreement.
