Thread by @paulwaugh

Tory MPs think the 'Rishi rehabiliation' is now underway.
😇 Geidt clears him re conflicts of interest
🎂 Partygate fine seen as unfair
🛢️@MumsnetTowers warning of windfall tax shows new political nous
📈Firm line against spending that wd fuel inflation
inews.co.uk/opinion/dont-c…

.@RishiSunak was missing from #PMQs cos he was chairing Treasury’s new 'Efficiencies and Value for Money Committee', which overran.

Tho he dropped to bottom of the @ConHome league table after the non-dom row, that wasn't as big a fall as after the Spring Statement after tax hikes.

“The only way is up now, isn’t it?” one MP joked to me.

Crucially, Sunak – who was accused of wooing 2019 intake MPs as part of his leadership ambitions – is starting to reach out to and listen to older MPs.
“He could be a great Chancellor if he focuses on the day job,” one said.
Which is exactly what his allies say he's doing

Many MPs think his chances of becoming PM are remote. Irony is the only way he can keep that dream alive is if he stops actively preparing for it.
😍
“It’s like dating isn’t it? The less desperate you look, the more likely you are to have success,” said one MP.

Another backbencher said Sunak had a chance at political redemption if he “stops all the naff Instagram stuff”

One former minister: “Few Chancellors make it to PM. And he just looks too awkward to be a leader..But Rishi could be remembered as the guy who kept the country going in the pandemic and then got us back in the black, with an income tax cut on top. Not a bad legacy.”

As for a Tory windfall tax, so far it just looks like a warning to oil firms to invest their enormous profits instead of doing share buybacks or dividends.
Labour source: “He’s basically realised we’re winning the argument and that it’s cutting through on the doorstep."

I've done some number crunching and Labour's windfall tax would raise even more money given the spike in profits of the back of the Ukraine war.
@RachelReevesMP plan was based on Oct OBR, but March OBR means her plan would raise £2.5bn (not just £1.2bn) to slash bills even more

The OBR March update said NSea tax receipts for 2022/23 wd be £5.3bn higher than its Oct estimate, suggesting profits of £13.2bn.
🇺🇦Some argue that's Ukraine 'blood money' the Treasury can target - without raising its own spending.

All this + more here:

inews.co.uk/opinion/dont-c…

But the 'Rishi rehab' faces opposition. One minister points out to me MPs this wk pushed hard for him to be moved in a reshuffle.
A new story about him spending £13k a year to heat his swimming poll 'struck a chord' with MPs who seem him as a 'liability'

mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…