Thread by @AnalyticsQpr

QPR’s 10-match rolling xG & xGA since Mark Warburton arrived in 2019. The blue shaded areas show the periods where the xG was above the xGA, i.e when #QPR were good. It’s hard to overstate how volatile last season was, and it’s no surprise that we went into this season with…

…elevated expectations. ‘Playoffs’ was a word used by many prior to a ball being kicked last summer. In that sense it’s not massive a shock that, having fallen short this year (and badly so), a change has been made. #QPR currently sit in 17th based on xG Difference (xG - xGA)

Whenever I’ve talked about #QPR ‘overachieving’ this season it’s always been based on these xG numbers. It’s not based on whether this squad is good enough (or capitalised enough) to achieve a top 6 place. I, like many others, believed that was a realistic aim this season

The whole saga over the last couple of days, and even weeks, is the ultimate consequence of not having the money to be flexible. I imagine that for the club there’s too much risk in giving MW another deal only to have to pay him off (and get a new bloke in) if it goes south…

…between now and say November/December. If #QPR had the money, then giving MW another few months wouldn’t carry (in their minds) that great a risk. Of course I have no idea, but that’s probably not an unreasonable assumption. Goes without saying that any new manger also…

…carries its own risk, although no more so than when MW was brought in. The club was in a worse state at that time. It’s a cliche but ultimately time will tell as to whether this was right or wrong. Fwiw, I shall be giving MW a hearty 👏👏👏 tonight #QPR #QPRSHU

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