1/ Moving to more equitable Championship:

Squad market values (as measured by @TMuk_news) are a useful proxy to measure the value of football squads, in the absence of reliable current wage bill data.

Looking at this data can provide insight into how ‘equal’ the division is… 2/ …is at any given point in time. Putting this data, for the past 8 @SkyBetChamp seasons, into a box & whisker plot (below) shows the distribution of ‘wealth’. This type of chart shows how wide that distribution has been (esp. 20/21) but that it’s slightly calmed down since…

Predicting outcomes for the upcoming @SkyBetChamp season: there are few better indicators, as to where a team will roughly finish in the table, than wage bills. With a correlation of 0.54 (between wages & points), no other variable (on its own) has a stronger relationship… …with points won in any given season. However, we obviously can’t model an upcoming season based on wages as we have no idea what these are. Instead, I use @Transfermarkt ‘market values’ as a proxy for wages. The correlation between these and points is 0.49, so not much…

QPR’s 10-match rolling xG & xGA since Mark Warburton arrived in 2019. The blue shaded areas show the periods where the xG was above the xGA, i.e when #QPR were good. It’s hard to overstate how volatile last season was, and it’s no surprise that we went into this season with… …elevated expectations. ‘Playoffs’ was a word used by many prior to a ball being kicked last summer. In that sense it’s not massive a shock that, having fallen short this year (and badly so), a change has been made. #QPR currently sit in 17th based on xG Difference (xG - xGA)

The value of possession (or otherwise). The chart below shows the rate of chances created vs average possession, so far in this season’s @SkyBetChamp. Top left corner is reserved for the true ‘wasters’ of possession. @QPR are nowhere near @SwansOfficial levels, but of the… #QPR …other high-possession teams, they are a little more pedestrian in terms of chances created. Chart below shows rates of chances created vs xG (there’s obviously a very strong correlation here). Another chart distorted by @FulhamFC, so let’s illustrate in another way… #QPR

1/ With the playoff teams confirmed for this season, I wanted to look at how many points @QPR need to be targeting in order to break into the top 6 next season... #EFL #QPR

https://twitter.com/skybetchamp/status/1387139147341746176

2/ Taking data from the last 5 @SkyBetChamp seasons (including this season, with points per game used to account for 46 matches), we can use logistic regression to determine the probability of finishing in the top 6, based on number of points won... #QPR #EFL

1/ Fancied illustrating how much @QPR have improved in the second half of the season, and in context to the rest of the @SkyBetChamp division. The chart below shows the difference in average goals scored per match between Matches 1-23 & Match 24 onwards... #EFL #QPR 2/ Goals scored per match increased from 0.96 to 1.31. Goals conceded per match (chart below) improved from 1.30 down to 1.00 between those periods. Both charts illustrate that @QPR are one of the most improved teams in the second half of the season... #EFL #QPR

Any reason to be nervous tonight? Shouldn’t be, given that @wwfcofficial are by some distance the worst team in the division. However there’s a sense that this is the sort of team we tend to struggle against... #QPR #QPRWYC

https://twitter.com/qpr/status/1369045261066985474

As of Week 35, @wwfcofficial have only scored 23 goals (and 4 of those were penalties). However, 35% of this meagre total were from set-pieces, significantly above the league average of 24%. So if there’s any threat, it’ll likely be from these #QPR #QPRWYC