@zerohedge does not understand what's going on in Turkey. The last thing Turkey wants is foreign capital returning.

Offering a 4% two year bond is just a stop-gap for those that paying higher rates than that, to offset some cap. outflow.


I've explained this before. Erdogan is de-dollarizing. And he Keynesian assumption of a linear response of inflation to interest rates is a very poor one. 2/

Now, let's turn to the issue of the day. Russia's gas for rubles trade it is forcing on the world. Gazprombank builds up euros/dollars/etc. foists the FX costs off on the buyer. Ruble demand rises. 3/ Image
Gazprombank has no interest in holding USD/EUR/GBP so they set up a swap with Turkey to pass them through and stabilize FX reserves at 4%
/4 Image
Those Lira can then be offset, hedged, a carry created, etc. With all of them in a bear market dynamic vs. the RUB, Russia is now going to double dip on the returns as the TRY stabilizes.

Those USD/EUR/GBP will pay for Turkey's stabilization. 5/
Using depreciating EUR to buy oil/gas to sell to Turkey at 4% which accelerates the payoff rate of foreign currency debt in Turkey, which feeds the doom loop of FX weakness vs. Russian exports to 'unfriendly' countries. 6/

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More from @TFL1728

Oct 10
After this weekend's upside results for @AfD in Hesse and Bavaria I want to remind everyone that this time is different for them as compared to 2018.

They have transformed into the "solutions for Germany" Party, like I said they needed to become then. /1
Because they didn't rebrand themselves in 2018-19 they were easy pickings during COVID which saw their support drop to a low of 10%. They failed to cross the 16% chasm and fell back.

But, they were on the right side of the issues, German voters needed to catch up to them. /2
They would do so because once Merkel was gone, the rebrand under Alice Weidel could finally take root. They went from the "Anti-Merkel" party on immigration to the "Pro-Germany" party on immigration, war, and the economy.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 25
So, the YC is steepening this morning thanks to @SecYellen panicking on Friday, announcing Yield Curve Control.

Note the 5yr/7yr spread is about to turn positive!

This is killing the euro and the Eurobond markets.
/1 Image
Euro below the 1-bar Quarterly Reversal level of 1.0633 and falling fast. /2 Image
German 10-year at 2.79% and rising (up 5 bps today). /3 Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 5
Niger’s former “independent government”was allowing France to take Uranium out of the country for $0.80/kg. Current price is $150.

The junta just raised the price to France to €200 or $185.

But France isn’t dependent on Nigerien Yellowcake, or so the bots kept scolding me last week

France’s budget is a complete nightmare, and unlike other members of the EU it can violate budget rules b/c some PIGS are more equal than others /2

Go back and reread what I wrote about Niger and France in July


Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
Once you see how multi-vector the attacks on the auto industry are you can't unsee them.

EVs are a cancer eating away at private transportation. EV fires are the next stage of this.

As ICEs are being legislated out of the market, unsafe EVs will come with higher insurance costs all through their lifecycle.

Your True Cost of Ownership will rise as the depreciation curve steepens and initial cost rises thanks to complexity.
Simple, straightforward trucks are leaving the market.

RIP the Nissan Titan whose footprint is too small to stay in the market, like the Ram 1500 Classic. All full-sized trucks shorter than 146" wheelbase can't be sold at scale without huge CAFE fines.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 25
So, let's talk Yellen wanting Blackrock to be regulated as a SIFI. Moving Non-banks into this pile, which now gives them access they didn't have before.

BLK doesn't want to be a SIFI. But, now that they are in trouble, thanks to Powell they do? /1

From this 2019 Article on BLK in Europe. /2 Image
So, what's changed? Clearly that BLK didn't 'use leverage' but invested everyone's pension funds in stocks and Sovereign Debt at insane prices... 10 year German bunds at -0.8%... mmmmm... tasty!

Now? /3 Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 4
Here's a follow up thread to my article on the #TrumpIndicment from last week. Covering the #DeSantis and #NYBoys angles

For those who thought the article was too dark, chew on these ideas.

Some light schizo-posting for a random Tuesday.

Ready? Go.

If DeSantis is a @WEF stooge as the Ultra-Trumpers at CTH and others assert, why indict Trump?

@Georgesoros gave you the plan - pit Ron & Don against each other....profit from their war.

Indicting Trump doesn't serve that strategy at all. /2
Who told you Ron was running for President?

The Soros/DNC/Davos media... that's who. /3

Read 19 tweets

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