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Oliver Alexander Profile picture
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Apr 29 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
As with the plan for the May 9th "Victory Day" parade flyover there is also a plan for the actual parade.

It also features some interesting details and differences, if compared to the parade from 2020 and 2021, that I will go through in this thread. 1/

redstar.ru/poryadok-proez… Image
Firstly, if compared to 2020 and 2021, you will notice this years parade is a lot smaller. It features 131 vehicles, compared to 234 in 2020 and 197 in 2021. 2/ ImageImage
A large portion of the combat ready vehicles are missing from this years parade, including TOS-1s, Pantsir-S1s, T-80BVMs and BM-30 Smerchs. 3/ ImageImageImageImage
The Rosgvardia (National Guard) armored vehicles that are usually part of the parade are also missing this year. They are being used extensively in the invasion of Ukraine and have suffered heavy losses. 4/ Image
The parades usually impressive display of MLRS systems appears to have been demoted to 9 Tornado-G upgraded Grad systems. 5/ Image
The large part of their parade consists of their "next generation" systems that exist in too few numbers to have been fielded in combat in Ukraine. Systems such as the T-14 Armata, Kurganets-25, VPK-7829 Bumerang and Uran-9. 6/ ImageImageImageImage
Thread analysing the parade's flyover

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More from @OAlexanderDK

Oliver Alexander Profile picture
May 1
There were reports of Russia air defense activating, then several explosions and now smoke from a large fire near Tomarovka in the Belgorod Oblast of Russia.

Seems like an ammunition depot might have been hit.
Somewhere between 6-10 explosions were heard before the smoke started rising according to reports.
Closer look at the fire
Read 5 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Apr 29
The flight plan for the May 9th "Victory Day" parade flyover has been released.

It features some interesting details and differences, if compared to the flyover from 2020 and 2021, that I will go through in this thread. 1/

redstar.ru/poryadok-proly…
Firstly, there are a less Ka-52 and Mi-28 helicopters taking part in the flyover this year. 3 of each down from 5 of each. Especially the Ka-52 is being used heavily in Ukraine and has suffered significant loses. Russia has lost 10% of it's Ka-52 fleet. 2/
This year's flyover features a Ilyushin Il-80, which has was not part of the parade in the previous 2 years. The Il-80 is a Russian airborne command and control aircraft, commonly referred to as a "Doomsday aircraft", designed to command in the event of a nuclear war. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Apr 28
Reports of 2 large explosions heard in the Belgorod region of Russia.
The explosions reported could be air defense interceptions. No information on anything having been hit yet.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Apr 26
This is going to be one of my more unpopular threads, but I still do not believe the Il-76 shootdown ever happened.

It is now exactly two months since the reports of two Il-76s having been shot down near Bila Tserkva on the 26th February.

nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
Bila Tserkva is located around 50km south of Kyiv in an area that was never occupied by Russian forces. While the helicopter air assault on Hostomel was foolish, an airborne paradrop this far behind Ukrainian lines would have been suicidal. Image
After 2 months, we still have no evidence of any Il-76s being shot down in the area. Il-76 are very large aircraft and as such the debris field from a shoot down would be huge.

This is not a fighter, it is larger than many commercial airliners. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Apr 26
40 countries were invited to the US hosted Ukraine defense conference at Ramstein air base. All the countries invited have not been named, but we can assume all 30 NATO countries were. Add Ukraine and that leaves 10 non-NATO countries in attendance. Image
Finland is there, I would assume that means Sweden is also present.

Israel is also present, as well as Qatar.

I am not sure if the EU representative counts.

That leaves 6 (or 5) currently unknown attendees. ImageImageImage
Kenya is also present

Looks like Tunisia is also there ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Apr 17
Seems like we have our first images of the Moskva. From the location of the smoke and fire it does not look like there was any ammunition explosion. Looks line the Neptune missiles hit just by the exhausts.
The P-500/P-1000 launchers seem relatively intact. Had the one of 1000kg warheads exploded, the front of the ship would have practically destroyed.

The S-300F and Osa magazines at the rear of the ship also appear intact in the image.
Photo from a different angle showing the same damage as the first image. A slight list to port is visible in both images.
Read 10 tweets

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