Thread by @TrentTelenko

>>The qualities that make someone an effective and profitable thief preclude other skill sets.

The above statement is at the heart of Russia's shortcoming in Ukraine & possibly with Russia's nuclear arsenal.🧵

The idea that this situation goes from Russian Army platoon
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https://twitter.com/objectstory/status/1515696525430726658

...Lieutenant to Putin himself plus every level of procurement supporting the Russian military still hasn't sunk deeply into the minds of Western Defense Analysts.

Specifically, the USA spends $10 million a year supporting each and every active nuclear weapon in it's arsenal.
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That's $10 billion a year.

Russia's entire 2021 defense budget was estimated at $41.6 billion for EVERYTHING.

The levels of corruption demonstrated in Ukraine are such that the West needs to deeply consider the strategic implications of the Russian nuclear arsenal being

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...mostly unserviceable.

So, what do I mean by "unserviceable?"

Let's start with Oleg Bukharin statements in the Arms Control Association's newsletter. Back in 2002 he said that Soviet warheads had a design life of 10 years, with newer Russian ones lasting 15 years.

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The Soviet Union's deployment cycle was to put warheads onto systems for three years, before downloading them and sending them to the factory to be refurbished.

According to the old Cold War Era FEMA hands, this meant the best 1/3 of nukes were on missiles, subs & bombers.
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The next 1/3 of 'reduced reliability' were in 'reserves' for ICBM/SLBM/Bomber reloads. The last 1/3 were not trusted to work awaited their turn to be 'recooked'

The Soviets cold launched their liquid fueled missiles so they could reload silos with high fueling cycle missiles
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These missiles were filled with fuels & oxidizers like hydrazine and red fuming nitric acid that turned aerospace grade aluminium into hazardous waste.

They were fired regularly in the Soviet era to avoid the cost of disposal. Siberians would disagree about that. (Photo)
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That Soviet warhead cycle had grim implications for Russia. Seven years (1992-1999) is almost three cycles of warheads not being maintained because of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Additionally, the Tritium which is used for nuclear fusion, has a half-life of 12.3 years.
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Working back with that number to 1997, two generations of half-lives have occurred.

This means warheads produced in the closing years of the USSR and early days of the new Russian Federation now have only about 25% of their tritium left.
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And it gets worse when you look at the Russian Federation's move to modern ICBMs (154 out of 228) to road & rail mobility with an eye to corruption.

Given the complete Soviet/Russian collapse from 1992 to 1999. What do you think happened to all those heavy 3000 PSI
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...hardened silos built for ICBMs by the USSR following seven years of no maintenance budget to deal with Siberian cold affecting buildings?

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The idea that the Soviet Era "Dead Hand" system is working after that 1992-1999 no money interregnum plus Putin's 22 year "everything for sale" Gangster Kleptocracy rule, especially after 2012, is risible.

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That 2012 date is important for a reason. It is when Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was put in charge of the Russian military.

Given Oleg Bukharin statements on the 15 year lifetime of Russian Federation nukes & Shoigu's 'sell anything' stewardship of the Russian
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...military.

Only _SOME_ of the Russian nuclear which entered service in the last 5-years should be considered fully operational and few to none of those six years and older will be.

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I think we can place Russian Federation nukes into quarters.

o 1/4 Fully operational
o 1/4 primary detonations of 5-7 kt without fusion or secondary fission
o 1/4 'fizzles' that have incomplete fission
o 1/4 complete duds

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I could be completely wrong on both points...but Western Intelligence really ought to go six miles out of its way to make a big hairy deal.

1st, these conjectures of mine could be right.

2nd, it would undercut Russian public diplomacy if anytime nukes are brought up,

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...the world is seriously asking "But will Russian nukes work?"🤨🤔

3rd, and most important, it would inject huge uncertainty into the Oligarchs around Putin because their mega-thief skills set makes them the most vulnerable to "Nukes hollowed out by corruption" messaging.

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This would be a game of pushing the Russian "Reflexive Control Theory" infowar stratagem right back down the Oligarch's collective throats.

If no one in Russia is sure their nukes work.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1518683614644428801

The chances of Russian nuclear use drops to near nothing for fear of that fact being publicly demonstrated.

The idea that Putin so destroyed Russian nuclear stocks via corruption such that China can walk into Siberia unopposed would do that.

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The West has nothing to lose and everything to gain trying very publicly to find out if these "Two conjectures" of mine pan out.

Starting with a long public list of all the ways corrupt maintenance practices can disable a Russian thermonuclear device listing how much money
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...can be pocketed for each corrupt act.

The military failures by corruption in Ukraine certainly has Russian elites primed for such a Western "Reflexive Control" infowar campaign

20/End.