Little thread on why teams without a big need at QB may want to draft a QB like Malik Willis or Sam Howell at this point in the #NFLDraft
A fair probability of a current era QB becoming a Pro Bowl player in this range of the draft is 8.8%. However the average win share for a Pro Bowl QB is 5.34
Meaning a QB has an expected win share of 0.47 (8.8% * 5.34 win share)
Meaning a QB has an expected win share of 0.47 (8.8% * 5.34 win share)
Take that number compared to drafting a Pro Bowl LB (not edge rusher), which has a 23.4% probability at this point in the draft.
Win Share for a Pro Bowl LB is 1.14, giving that pick an expected win share value of 0.27 (23.4% * 1.14 win share).
Win Share for a Pro Bowl LB is 1.14, giving that pick an expected win share value of 0.27 (23.4% * 1.14 win share).
All this is to say, teams without a top-tier QB should be thinking of drafting one as even thought they’re less likely to hit, the upside is massive if they do. #NFLDraft
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