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Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | Profile picture
@ChuckPfarrer
Apr 30, 2022 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
TEN: RU Major General Andrei Simonov was killed today in the vicinity of Izium. He was targeted, in part, by UKR signals intelligence units. The 10th Russian general to die in combat in Ukraine, ironically, Simonov was a senior commander in RU's electronic warfare units. Image

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More from @ChuckPfarrer

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | Profile picture
Dec 2, 2025
RUSSIAN LOSSES: If you like this kind of 'deep dive’ reports into the war,, consider becoming an Indications and Warnings subscriber. Here’s a sample of today's bonus content... a deep dive into Russian casualties in Pokrovsk. Image
Russian Forces Culminating?

Russian forces in the Pokrovsk AO are now showing signs of reaching a culminating point—the operational limit where offensive momentum stalls due to exhaustion, logistics strain, and unsustainable losses—defined by Clausewitz as the point where attackers can no longer sustain pressure without risking collapse. Evidence includes:
• Slowed Tempo: Advances stalled 5 km short of encirclement; reliance on reserves (e.g., 76th VDV) indicates depletion of initial assault echelons.
• Resource Strain: 150,000-170,000 troops committed, but daily losses (1,000-1,600 theater-wide) outpace reconstitution (training overwhelmed at 423,000 YTD). Infantry attrition up 30% Sep vs. Aug.
• Tactical Shifts: Russian losses have compelled Ru commanders to abandon mechanized assaults in favor of 3-man infiltration. These tactics face casualty ratios of 50-80% per group to gain meters—inefficient for operational breakthroughs, and contributes to daily loss rates equivalent to two battalions per 24 hour cycle.
• Counterpressure: Ukrainian SOF raids and drone interdictions have reclaimed 11.5 km², forcing Russian "appetite cooling" (per Ukrainian Air Assault commander). Russian troops are not able to exploit opportunities following Ru airstrikes. It is noted that since late July Ru has been continuously unable to rapidly exploit post Battlefield Aerial Interdictions; the failure to follow up on airstrikes contributes only to rendering urban battle spaces more complex, and thereby strengthening UKR defensive arrangements.
• If unaddressed, this Russian trend to culmination could force Moscow into a defensive posture by Q1 2026, especially with winter exacerbating Ru logistical failures.

The lack of food, ammunition and materiel, will almost certainly immobilize Russian forces. Moreover, Russia's mass-mobilization model (1M+ casualties total) allows only short-term sustainment, though at escalating political/economic cost. Russia’s continuing failure to deliver trained forces to the Zero Line does nothing to arrest the downward spiral in Russian combat efficiency.
Attrition and Percent Losses of Russian Units

Verified data confirms manpower/equipment attrition from combat, as logistics are interdicted by UKR drones. Russian logistics face up to 90% losses from UKR artillery, drones, mines and ambushes. Key units in Pokrovsk (51st/2nd/41st Combined Arms Armies, Central Grouping) have suffered heavily:

Overall, Central Grouping (Pokrovsk lead) lost 96,574 personnel Jan-Aug 2025 (34% of frontline total), with urban tactics amplifying infantry bleed (up to 2:1 KIA per fireteam).

NATO Standard Losses as a Measure of Defeat

NATO doctrine (e.g., STANAG 2116/APP-06) views defeat not as total annihilation but operational failure. By these metrics a NATO unit is considered ‘defeated’ if it sustains 20-30% losses; such a unit is judged to be no longer combat effective and will be withdrawn to reconstitute. Losses of 50%+ are equated to brigade-level defeat; such a unit will be withdrawn, often have its commanders relived and face a ‘ground up’ reorganization.

Attrition ratios >3:1 against the attacker are judged to be a defeat. For example the Somme: Offensive in WW I, where 50% losses forced the eveolutions to be suspended.

It is noteworthy that Russia's Pokrovsk effort applied 170,000 troops and sustained losses of 5 attacking Russians for every 1 Ukrainian casualty exceeds even the debacle of the Somme. Russia routinely sustains 30-50% unit casualties in offensive operations, a level of degradation sufficient for "defeat" thresholds. Russian casualties in Pokrovsk alone exceeded total casualties of the Russian army in the entire Soviet Afghan War: ~15,000 KIA over 10 years vs. Pokrovsk's 15,000 casualties per month.

SACEUR assessed that Russia's 15% force recruitment and growth only masks an unsustainable loss rate; culmination of Russian front line forces in the Ukraine war risks broader collapse if Ukraine is empowered to peruse large scale ground maneuver warfare.
Read 6 tweets
Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | Profile picture
Dec 13, 2022
@TrentTelenko 1/5 Trent-- epic thread! The bridge hit was definitely a ‘fast’ job. It is possible to severely damage the piers with an amount of C-4 (or equivalent) that can be ‘carried’ to the site. Using shaped charges and a little pre-op charge calculation, it could pulled off...
@TrentTelenko 2/5 .. with a dozen guys and a couple of vehicles in about 20 minutes. Earlier in the war I saw a vid of UKR SOF do exactly this... several civilian vehicles converged under a road bridge, unloaded haversacks and spread out to the bridge piers. Rehearsed. Quick. Professional.
@TrentTelenko 3/5 I won’t go into the amount of demo required, but it is doable. Again, reconnaissance, charge calculation, operational planning and rehearsal. Taking out just one row of piers would drop (and/or bed) the deck. The damage is sufficient to block tanks. Good enough.
Read 6 tweets
Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | Profile picture
Aug 9, 2022
CRIMEA: The RU Naval Air Station at Saki continues to be rocked by explosions. It's increasingly likely that Ukraine hit the facility with a long range precision strike. A US provided MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) would have the needed range and accuracy.
COMMENT: As a causal factor, accident, or local sabotage cannot be ruled out. But the fact that multiple ammo storage areas have detonated (on different areas of the base) would suggest the likelihood of a UKR long range strike.
COMMENT: It is additionally noted that Russian air defenses appear not to have engaged prior to the explosions. Though well placed missiles from Bayraktar TB2s might possibly have carried out the attack, they would be unlikely to have succeeded in a daylight mission.
Read 5 tweets
Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | Profile picture
Aug 7, 2022
KHERSON / 2130 UTC 7 AUG / Ukrainian Partisans and and Special Operations Forces continue to identify lucrative targets for HIMARS and precision artillery. Reports indicate a strikes in the vicinity of the Kherson airfield and the M-14 HWY bridge.
COMMENT: As a causal factor, accident, or local sabotage cannot be ruled out. But the fact that multiple ammo storage areas have detonated (on different areas of the base) would suggest the likelihood of a UKR long range strike.
COMMENT: It is additionally noted that Russian air defenses appear not to have engaged prior to the explosions. Though well placed missiles from Bayraktar TB2s might possibly have carried out the attack, they would be unlikely to have succeeded in a daylight mission.
Read 4 tweets

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