RUSSIAN LOSSES: If you like this kind of 'deep dive’ reports into the war,, consider becoming an Indications and Warnings subscriber. Here’s a sample of today's bonus content... a deep dive into Russian casualties in Pokrovsk. Russian Forces Culminating?

Russian forces in the Pokrovsk AO are now showing signs of reaching a culminating point—the operational limit where offensive momentum stalls due to exhaustion, logistics strain, and unsustainable losses—defined by Clausewitz as the point where attackers can no longer sustain pressure without risking collapse. Evidence includes:
• Slowed Tempo: Advances stalled 5 km short of encirclement; reliance on reserves (e.g., 76th VDV) indicates depletion of initial assault echelons.
• Resource Strain: 150,000-170,000 troops committed, but daily losses (1,000-1,600 theater-wide) outpace reconstitution (training overwhelmed at 423,000 YTD). Infantry attrition up 30% Sep vs. Aug.
• Tactical Shifts: Russian losses have compelled Ru commanders to abandon mechanized assaults in favor of 3-man infiltration. These tactics face casualty ratios of 50-80% per group to gain meters—inefficient for operational breakthroughs, and contributes to daily loss rates equivalent to two battalions per 24 hour cycle.
• Counterpressure: Ukrainian SOF raids and drone interdictions have reclaimed 11.5 km², forcing Russian "appetite cooling" (per Ukrainian Air Assault commander). Russian troops are not able to exploit opportunities following Ru airstrikes. It is noted that since late July Ru has been continuously unable to rapidly exploit post Battlefield Aerial Interdictions; the failure to follow up on airstrikes contributes only to rendering urban battle spaces more complex, and thereby strengthening UKR defensive arrangements.
• If unaddressed, this Russian trend to culmination could force Moscow into a defensive posture by Q1 2026, especially with winter exacerbating Ru logistical failures.

The lack of food, ammunition and materiel, will almost certainly immobilize Russian forces. Moreover, Russia's mass-mobilization model (1M+ casualties total) allows only short-term sustainment, though at escalating political/economic cost. Russia’s continuing failure to deliver trained forces to the Zero Line does nothing to arrest the downward spiral in Russian combat efficiency.

@TrentTelenko 1/5 Trent-- epic thread! The bridge hit was definitely a ‘fast’ job. It is possible to severely damage the piers with an amount of C-4 (or equivalent) that can be ‘carried’ to the site. Using shaped charges and a little pre-op charge calculation, it could pulled off... @TrentTelenko 2/5 .. with a dozen guys and a couple of vehicles in about 20 minutes. Earlier in the war I saw a vid of UKR SOF do exactly this... several civilian vehicles converged under a road bridge, unloaded haversacks and spread out to the bridge piers. Rehearsed. Quick. Professional.

CRIMEA: The RU Naval Air Station at Saki continues to be rocked by explosions. It's increasingly likely that Ukraine hit the facility with a long range precision strike. A US provided MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) would have the needed range and accuracy.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1556997753523380224

COMMENT: As a causal factor, accident, or local sabotage cannot be ruled out. But the fact that multiple ammo storage areas have detonated (on different areas of the base) would suggest the likelihood of a UKR long range strike.

KHERSON / 2130 UTC 7 AUG / Ukrainian Partisans and and Special Operations Forces continue to identify lucrative targets for HIMARS and precision artillery. Reports indicate a strikes in the vicinity of the Kherson airfield and the M-14 HWY bridge. COMMENT: As a causal factor, accident, or local sabotage cannot be ruled out. But the fact that multiple ammo storage areas have detonated (on different areas of the base) would suggest the likelihood of a UKR long range strike.