By now, many will have seen the video of a Ukrainian drone dropping a small bomb through the sunscreen (!) of a car driven by Russian soldiers. Here's a short thread on how it was done (with thanks to @ian_matveev, on whose thread this is based). /1
For the attack, a modified VOG-17 grenade was used. A fin and a front part, created on a 3D printer, are added. The VOG-17 is a Soviet-era 30x120 mm fragmentation grenade with a claimed effective radius of 7m, covering an area of about 150 m². /2
It weighs about 350g (12.3oz) A hobbyist drone like a DJI Phantom 3 is easily capable of carrying one of these. As two grenades were used in this attack, it suggests that a bigger drone was used, two drones were used or the same drone was used to attack twice in succession. /3
The modifications to the grenade are simple, but as the video shows, they enable good aerodynamic performance and high accuracy. /4
The VOG-17 grenade itself contains only 36g (1.2oz) of explosive and can't seriously damage equipment. But there is a lot of such ammunition in Ukraine. It's usually fired from an AG-17 automatic grenade launcher, a Soviet equivalent of the US Mk 19. /5
Low-cost hobbyist drones armed with small modified grenades provide a cheap and effective weapon against individual soldiers. Factions in Syria and Iraq used them to some extent, but they've really come into their own in Ukraine. /6
But how do you destroy an armoured vehicle with an off-the-shelf drone? Ukraine appears to have been using a few different approaches. One of the most effective has been to repurpose the RKG-3, an old Soviet-era type of anti-tank grenade dating to 1950. /7
In 2020, Ukraine's PJSC Mayak Plant demonstrated a drone bomb conversion for the RKG-3 - attaching 3D-printed fins to convert it into the RKG-1600. It weighs about 1kg (2 lb), requiring the use of a larger drone. /8
During testing, drone pilots were able to hit a target 1m (3ft) in size from an altitude of 300m (900 ft). At that altitude the drone would have been virtually invisible and inaudible. /9
Another tactic appears to be the use of what are likely to be aerially-dropped mortar rounds - a very simple and cheap option, particularly against weakly armoured vehicles such as these Russian BMP-3s (with only about 10mm of top armour). /10
The effect of these can be seen in the video below. /11
The cost-effectiveness of these things is extraordinary. An octocopter drone costs maybe $10k, a Phantom 3 costs around $500. A mortar or RKG-1600 probably costs under $100. Each BMP-3 cost the Russians $796k. Add to that the potential cost of a lost crew. /12
You can bet that military strategists will be watching this with great interest. Drones are now able to effectively snipe soldiers and equipment with great precision, likely undetected, at any time of the day or night and in most weather conditions. /13
Even if you're camouflaged, bivouacked or behind the front lines, a drone armed with a small bomb could be overhead at any moment. Drone pilots are the new snipers of the 21st century, and are likely to be just as much feared by their targets. /end
An extra point about how effective those converted anti-tank grenades (RKG-1600) are: the most recent models of the base RKG-3 grenade can penetrate 220 mm of rolled homogeneous armour. That's more than enough to take out a tank, as this video shows:
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1/ A Russian soldier fighting in Chasiv Yar says that new recruits sent to the front die almost immediately, with his own unit taking over 90% casualties. The fields are strewn with rotting corpses. To avoid having to pay compensation to relatives, collecting IDs is banned. ⬇️
2/ A soldier of the 88th Reconnaissance and Sabotage Brigade "Espanyola", called Ruslan, with the callsign "Rukha", has described conditions in the fighting for Chasiv Yar over the summer of 2025, in which thousands of Russians were killed and injured.
3/ "They recruit people who don't know anything—millions are spent on [recruiting] them. They arrive—and immediately, they are 200s [dead]...
They're sent to the training ground for two weeks with an rifle. Just hold it, shoot it, teach it, and that's it. That's all they do."
1/ The disgraced and jailed Russian general Timur Ivanov wants to go back to Ukraine to fight as a stormtrooper, according to his lawyer. The news has angered many Russian warbloggers, who suspect that he intends to bribe a unit to let him serve in safety in the rear. ⬇️
2/ Ivanov's lawyer Denis Baluev says that his client has been working out hard while in pre-trial detention to get himself combat-ready: "That's why he's healthy. A fighter like him certainly wouldn't be out of place in the Special Military Operation!"
3/ "Moreover, he's truly motivated to restore his good name. Not by sitting out somewhere in the rear, but by actually doing combat work."
Baluev says that Ivanov doesn't plan to appeal to Putin for clemency, which the jailed General Ivan Popov attempted without success.
69 years ago today, Hungary was convulsed by a nationwide revolution against the Communist Party's dictatorial rule. Burned-out Soviet tanks littered the streets of Budapest as efforts continued to find a political solution to the uprising.
2/ By the fifth day of the Hungarian Revolution, the Hungarian Communist Party is in a dire situation. Violent measures taken by Party hardliners, the ÁVH secret police, and Soviet troops have failed to quell the revolution, and have only hardened the resolve of the insurgents.
3/ Hungary's own security forces – other than the ÁVH – are largely on the sidelines or have gone over to the side of the revolutionaries, and much of the country has fallen into the hands of revolutionary workers' councils. This leaves the Party's leaders with a dilemma.
1/ The battle for Pokrovsk is very different to the infamously bloody battle for Bakhmut two years ago, due to the presence of swarms of kamikaze and cargo drones. A commentary by a Russian warblogger highlights how urban warfare has changed. ⬇️
2/ 'Military Informant' comments on how "the current phase of military operations has also led to a significant change in the nature of urban warfare", which is the case for both sides in the ongoing battle:
3/ "The ongoing assault on Pokrovsk is tactically strikingly different from the assault on Bakhmut two and a half years ago.
1/ A French-Russian man said to be of interest to French investigators has denied any involvement in the Louvre jewellery heist and in previous antiquities thefts. He says that the FSB has warned him that France wants to put him on the wanted list for the Louvre theft. ⬇️
2/ As previously reported, Pierre Malinowski is said to be a person of interest following the robbery on 18 October, in which eight pieces of the French Crown Jewels valued at €88 million were stolen from the Louvre's Galerie d'Apollon.
3/ The author of the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel says that he has spoken with Malinowski, a former French Foreign Legion soldier and aide to Jean-Marie Le Pen. Malinowski is said to be close to Vladimir Putin and has been photographed meeting him.
1/ Russian warbloggers are angrily denouncing General Valery Gerasimov for blatantly lying to President Vladimir Putin about Russia's military progress in Ukraine during a televised briefing. They note that the incident highlights the persistent problem of false reporting. ⬇️
2/ A few weeks ago, some observant commentators noticed that a map of the front lines seen in the background of a Russian Ministry of Defence video showed Russian positions kilometers further west than Russian or Ukrainian OSINT analysts had independently assessed them to be.
3/ Yesterday's Putin-Gerasimov briefing demonstrated that this was not just for show, but was being reported directly to 'the Supreme' himself. Gerasimov claimed that Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad were encircled, with 31 Ukrainian battalions surrounded by Russian forces.