By now, many will have seen the video of a Ukrainian drone dropping a small bomb through the sunscreen (!) of a car driven by Russian soldiers. Here's a short thread on how it was done (with thanks to @ian_matveev, on whose thread this is based). /1
For the attack, a modified VOG-17 grenade was used. A fin and a front part, created on a 3D printer, are added. The VOG-17 is a Soviet-era 30x120 mm fragmentation grenade with a claimed effective radius of 7m, covering an area of about 150 m². /2
It weighs about 350g (12.3oz) A hobbyist drone like a DJI Phantom 3 is easily capable of carrying one of these. As two grenades were used in this attack, it suggests that a bigger drone was used, two drones were used or the same drone was used to attack twice in succession. /3
The modifications to the grenade are simple, but as the video shows, they enable good aerodynamic performance and high accuracy. /4
The VOG-17 grenade itself contains only 36g (1.2oz) of explosive and can't seriously damage equipment. But there is a lot of such ammunition in Ukraine. It's usually fired from an AG-17 automatic grenade launcher, a Soviet equivalent of the US Mk 19. /5
Low-cost hobbyist drones armed with small modified grenades provide a cheap and effective weapon against individual soldiers. Factions in Syria and Iraq used them to some extent, but they've really come into their own in Ukraine. /6
But how do you destroy an armoured vehicle with an off-the-shelf drone? Ukraine appears to have been using a few different approaches. One of the most effective has been to repurpose the RKG-3, an old Soviet-era type of anti-tank grenade dating to 1950. /7
In 2020, Ukraine's PJSC Mayak Plant demonstrated a drone bomb conversion for the RKG-3 - attaching 3D-printed fins to convert it into the RKG-1600. It weighs about 1kg (2 lb), requiring the use of a larger drone. /8
During testing, drone pilots were able to hit a target 1m (3ft) in size from an altitude of 300m (900 ft). At that altitude the drone would have been virtually invisible and inaudible. /9
Another tactic appears to be the use of what are likely to be aerially-dropped mortar rounds - a very simple and cheap option, particularly against weakly armoured vehicles such as these Russian BMP-3s (with only about 10mm of top armour). /10
The effect of these can be seen in the video below. /11
The cost-effectiveness of these things is extraordinary. An octocopter drone costs maybe $10k, a Phantom 3 costs around $500. A mortar or RKG-1600 probably costs under $100. Each BMP-3 cost the Russians $796k. Add to that the potential cost of a lost crew. /12
You can bet that military strategists will be watching this with great interest. Drones are now able to effectively snipe soldiers and equipment with great precision, likely undetected, at any time of the day or night and in most weather conditions. /13
Even if you're camouflaged, bivouacked or behind the front lines, a drone armed with a small bomb could be overhead at any moment. Drone pilots are the new snipers of the 21st century, and are likely to be just as much feared by their targets. /end
An extra point about how effective those converted anti-tank grenades (RKG-1600) are: the most recent models of the base RKG-3 grenade can penetrate 220 mm of rolled homogeneous armour. That's more than enough to take out a tank, as this video shows:
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1/ A paedophile who committed murder, theft, robbery and rape, and served four prison sentences before joining the Russian army to fight in Ukraine, has been arrested for raping and murdering a 13-year-old girl while on leave in Russia. ⬇️
2/ 13-year-old Violetta Smirnova went missing on 21 March in the Tver region of Russia. After an intensive search, her body was found in a forest area eight days later, 11 km from her home village of Ryazanovo. She had been raped and strangled with a belt.
3/ Investigators soon afterwards arrested 34-year-old Aleksandr Sergeev from the nearby Firovsky District. He had given the girl a ride after she missed her bus to school, but instead took her into a forest and killed her.
1/ Russian soldiers are deserting because of abusive commanders who enjoy impunity to rob them, beat them, and punish them by sending them to die in futile assaults. A Russian warblogger appeals for them to be treated mercifully by the Russian army. ⬇️
2/ Anastasia Kashevarova writes of the problem of soldiers being "deprived of protection from illegal actions by the command", deserting, being recaptured and then being sent into assaults as punishment without any of the root causes being addressed:
3/ "There are cases, and there are many of them, when soldiers run away from the front, although they are ready to fight, but due to the actions of individual commanders (non-statutory relations) they are forced to desert.
1/ Russian soldiers are complaining that their Mad Max-style modified vehicles, with camouflage and anti-drone protection, are attracting fines (and demands for bribes) from traffic cops because they are no longer compliant with traffic regulations. ⬇️
2/ As previously reported, traffic police in Russia's border regions have reportedly been systematically fining Russian troops driving vehicles to the front lines. Russian warbloggers have been giving more details about the situation.
1/ It's now only a few hours until Donald Trump makes his big tariff announcement, but nobody should think that there is any kind of plan behind it. It's all about Trump's desire for domination and long-held crank economic views.
2/ "He “likes the shock and awe,” a White House official said, and aims to capitalize on it. “Each country needs to panic and call. … Trump wants to hear you grovel and say you’ll cut a deal.”"
3/ As Paul Krugman says, "Since most of our trading partners aren’t in a groveling mood, trade war seems inevitable."
He's also right to say there's no secret agenda or 4D chess behind Trump's plan.
1/ The Russian army is forcing mobilised men to sign contracts to become professional soldiers, or face death in suicidal assaults against Ukrainian positions. It likely aims to save money on salaries and ensure that the men can't go home if a ceasefire is declared. ⬇️
2/ The private Telegram channel 'ZOV Insider' has published a recording of the Chief of Staff of Engineers of the 82nd Motorised Rifle Regiment, Captain Yuri Mikhailovich Grechukhin, in which he threatens to send his men to a stormtrooper unit unless they sign contracts:
3/ "Mobilised servicemen, [if you] fucking don't sign the contract, fuck it. A fucking contract is being made. Tomorrow, all the fucking mobilised who stand here, fuck, I'm handing over to storm, fuck. All of them, for fuck's sake. No fucking exceptions. All of them.
1/ A real estate agent in Russia has aroused controversy for proposing a get-rich scheme: marry a Russian soldier and wait for him to get killed in order to claim his death benefits. Outraged Russian warbloggers say that such schemes are real and need to be stopped. ⬇️
2/ Marina Orlova, founder of the Tomsk agency "Real Estate Empire", has shared a "working plan" for Russian women over 30 to buy an apartment. "It's all easy and simple," she says, "You find a man who serves in the Special Military Operation. He dies, you get 8 million."
3/ Orlova says that "many people" use this scheme now. Not surprisingly, it has prompted outrage and has resulted in calls for her to be investigated. She says her statement was made as a "joke between girlfriends" in an interview and has apologised.