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May 1, 2022 17 tweets 8 min read Read on X
By now, many will have seen the video of a Ukrainian drone dropping a small bomb through the sunscreen (!) of a car driven by Russian soldiers. Here's a short thread on how it was done (with thanks to @ian_matveev, on whose thread this is based). /1
For the attack, a modified VOG-17 grenade was used. A fin and a front part, created on a 3D printer, are added. The VOG-17 is a Soviet-era 30x120 mm fragmentation grenade with a claimed effective radius of 7m, covering an area of about 150 m². /2 ImageImageImage
It weighs about 350g (12.3oz) A hobbyist drone like a DJI Phantom 3 is easily capable of carrying one of these. As two grenades were used in this attack, it suggests that a bigger drone was used, two drones were used or the same drone was used to attack twice in succession. /3 Image
The modifications to the grenade are simple, but as the video shows, they enable good aerodynamic performance and high accuracy. /4
The VOG-17 grenade itself contains only 36g (1.2oz) of explosive and can't seriously damage equipment. But there is a lot of such ammunition in Ukraine. It's usually fired from an AG-17 automatic grenade launcher, a Soviet equivalent of the US Mk 19. /5
Low-cost hobbyist drones armed with small modified grenades provide a cheap and effective weapon against individual soldiers. Factions in Syria and Iraq used them to some extent, but they've really come into their own in Ukraine. /6
But how do you destroy an armoured vehicle with an off-the-shelf drone? Ukraine appears to have been using a few different approaches. One of the most effective has been to repurpose the RKG-3, an old Soviet-era type of anti-tank grenade dating to 1950. /7 Image
In 2020, Ukraine's PJSC Mayak Plant demonstrated a drone bomb conversion for the RKG-3 - attaching 3D-printed fins to convert it into the RKG-1600. It weighs about 1kg (2 lb), requiring the use of a larger drone. /8 Image
During testing, drone pilots were able to hit a target 1m (3ft) in size from an altitude of 300m (900 ft). At that altitude the drone would have been virtually invisible and inaudible. /9 Image
Another tactic appears to be the use of what are likely to be aerially-dropped mortar rounds - a very simple and cheap option, particularly against weakly armoured vehicles such as these Russian BMP-3s (with only about 10mm of top armour). /10 ImageImage
The effect of these can be seen in the video below. /11
The cost-effectiveness of these things is extraordinary. An octocopter drone costs maybe $10k, a Phantom 3 costs around $500. A mortar or RKG-1600 probably costs under $100. Each BMP-3 cost the Russians $796k. Add to that the potential cost of a lost crew. /12
You can bet that military strategists will be watching this with great interest. Drones are now able to effectively snipe soldiers and equipment with great precision, likely undetected, at any time of the day or night and in most weather conditions. /13
Even if you're camouflaged, bivouacked or behind the front lines, a drone armed with a small bomb could be overhead at any moment. Drone pilots are the new snipers of the 21st century, and are likely to be just as much feared by their targets. /end
An extra point about how effective those converted anti-tank grenades (RKG-1600) are: the most recent models of the base RKG-3 grenade can penetrate 220 mm of rolled homogeneous armour. That's more than enough to take out a tank, as this video shows:

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Apr 4
1/ Increasing numbers of Russian military policemen (VPs) are reportedly being deployed as assault troops, due to a shortage of manpower along the front lines in Ukraine. The news is being greeted with glee by Russian warbloggers, who detest the corrupt and often brutal VPs. ⬇️ Image
2/ The Russian Telegram channel 'Fox and Raven' reports:

"Across the entire front, there is a clear trend of gradually sending military police into assaults. There are fewer and fewer people in all directions."
3/ "Apparently, the flow of people wishing to sign a contract is not as large as we would like."

Russian warblogger Vladimir Romanov responds with undisguised satisfaction:

"I've never met more daring, charged fighters (and the closer to the rear – the more charged)."
Read 5 tweets
Apr 4
1/ Russia's push to capture Pokrovsk is still being seriously hampered by Ukrainian drones, which are causing major problems for Russian logistics and supplies. Vehicles are unable to reach within 10 km of the front line because of the constant threat of drone attacks. ⬇️ Image
2/ A Russian soldier on the ground writes to the 'Philologist in ambush' Telegram channel about the situation on the front line south of Pokrovsk:

"Everything hasn't changed much, we're still butting heads in the same places. Image
3/ "Novovasylivka is still behind us, there are head-on battles in Uspenivka, sometimes the faggots will take it, sometimes we'll recapture it, in principle, it's more behind us, but it's more of a gray area.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 3
1/ A paedophile who committed murder, theft, robbery and rape, and served four prison sentences before joining the Russian army to fight in Ukraine, has been arrested for raping and murdering a 13-year-old girl while on leave in Russia. ⬇️ Image
2/ 13-year-old Violetta Smirnova went missing on 21 March in the Tver region of Russia. After an intensive search, her body was found in a forest area eight days later, 11 km from her home village of Ryazanovo. She had been raped and strangled with a belt.
3/ Investigators soon afterwards arrested 34-year-old Aleksandr Sergeev from the nearby Firovsky District. He had given the girl a ride after she missed her bus to school, but instead took her into a forest and killed her.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 3
1/ Russian soldiers are deserting because of abusive commanders who enjoy impunity to rob them, beat them, and punish them by sending them to die in futile assaults. A Russian warblogger appeals for them to be treated mercifully by the Russian army. ⬇️ Image
2/ Anastasia Kashevarova writes of the problem of soldiers being "deprived of protection from illegal actions by the command", deserting, being recaptured and then being sent into assaults as punishment without any of the root causes being addressed:
3/ "There are cases, and there are many of them, when soldiers run away from the front, although they are ready to fight, but due to the actions of individual commanders (non-statutory relations) they are forced to desert.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 2
1/ Russian soldiers are complaining that their Mad Max-style modified vehicles, with camouflage and anti-drone protection, are attracting fines (and demands for bribes) from traffic cops because they are no longer compliant with traffic regulations. ⬇️ Image
2/ As previously reported, traffic police in Russia's border regions have reportedly been systematically fining Russian troops driving vehicles to the front lines. Russian warbloggers have been giving more details about the situation.
3/ The 'Readovka' Telegram channel reports:

"In Krasnodar Krai, traffic police officers demanded a bribe from men who were driving a "Loaf" [UAZ 452 van] to the Special Military Operation."
Read 18 tweets
Apr 2
1/ It's now only a few hours until Donald Trump makes his big tariff announcement, but nobody should think that there is any kind of plan behind it. It's all about Trump's desire for domination and long-held crank economic views.
2/ "He “likes the shock and awe,” a White House official said, and aims to capitalize on it. “Each country needs to panic and call. … Trump wants to hear you grovel and say you’ll cut a deal.”"
3/ As Paul Krugman says, "Since most of our trading partners aren’t in a groveling mood, trade war seems inevitable."

He's also right to say there's no secret agenda or 4D chess behind Trump's plan.
Read 5 tweets

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