1/ FASCINATING new theory on DREAMING from observing a deep neural net
but 1st––some of the most cutting-edge + interesting research on how 🧠🧠 work –– are inspired by observation of modern 💻💻 + algorithms
every era there's a theory of brains running parallel to era's tech
2/ Go back to Descartes who thought the 🧠 worked like hydraulic pumps ⛽️––the available new tech or his era
3/ Freud looked to the tech of his time to describe the mechanics of the brain––the steam engine
4/ More recent analogies have been to the brain as a computer––which notably inspired lots of AI research, specifically the early work on neural nets which lost and regained favor over the decades
5/ Then we have had the analogy of the brain as an internet––with islands of functional groups interconnected
6/ All models are wrong––some of them are useful.
Insights from trying to understand our internal human SENSES, PERCEPTION, SPEECH, VISION, HEARING, MEMORY have all led to embodied technologies
9/ Like "memory––prediction" framework and the computational layer between them
that ingests reality, makes models + predictions of patterns it later expects to see, then updates models based on 'reality' (just as robots/machine vision do)
what if the REASON we DREAM––was similar to
the REASON programmers add noise to deep neural nets
to prevent narrow training from experience
+ generalize, allowing for anticipation of weird new stuff––and be evolutionarily adaptive...
11/ Hoel calls it the Overfitting Brain Hypothesis
the problem of OVERFITTING in machine learning is best visualized by this
12/ The way researchers solve the "overfitting" problem for Deep Neural Nets––is by introducing "noise injections" in the form of corrupt inputs
Why? So the algorithms don't treat everything so narrowly SPECIFIC and precise––but instead can better GENERALIZE
13/ Now IF our brain processes + stores information from stimulus it receives all day long––and learns from experiences in a narrow way––THEN it too can "overfit" a model
& be less fit to encounter wider variations from it
(like the real world)...
So the PROVOCATIVE theory...
14/...Is that the evolutionary PURPOSE of DREAMING is to purposely corrupt data (memory or predictions) by inject noise into the system
And prevent learning from just rote routine memorization
-Over 50% of small VCs will involuntarily exit as ~5 VCs are planning to voluntarily exit (IPO)
-Lux team has invested over half a billion dollars across 82 companies (new + existing) in the past few months…
2/
-Zuck’s “ Poachapalooza 2025”
-L&A (License + Acquihire) is the new M&A
-the AI capex surge (5% of GDP) ~ fiber-optic + router binge of 2000 tech boom (5.2%) and short step below sheet-rock bonanza of 2005 housing bubble (6.7%).
-Open source vs Closed…
3/great irony in frenzy for ARTIFICIAL intelligence––what’s acquired isnt hardware but HUMAN intelligence
-frontier of agentic Al not defined by model size-but what we can verify
-99% reliable agent degrades to 60.5% after 50 sequential decision tasks––each error cascading like cracks in glass
NVDA = 19% of that––and 42% of NVDA revenue comes from just 5 Big Tech co's buying GPUs:
Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Tesla
2/At recent lunch with LP who put Lux in business I talked about shift from consensus cloud inference (GPUs + datacenters + power) to on-device inference (memory + batteries)...
3/ This valued LP talked about CAPEX:
Meta, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG TLSA spending $560B by EOY 2025
-@anduriltech founder Palmer Luckey on @60Minutes
“The Future of Warfare”
-@eGenesisBio on @CNN with Sanjay Gupta
“Animal Pharm”
-new Lux Q1 2025 Quarterly Letter
2/ This is one of my favorite letters we’ve ever written
The theme is PARTNERSHIPS
-between man and machine
-between present and future selves, decision, companies
-between us and our founders of Lux companies
-between Lux partners ourselves
3/ word processor > spellcheck >grammar‑check > LLM “style‑check” if paragraph was birthed by human mind or statistical echo. We detect plagiarism but also something subtler—call it prompterism, prose coaxed from silicon’s
latent space rather than summoned from lived experience.
2/ The 🇨🇳CCP “2035 Science & Technology Vision” states unapologetically “original innovation is the sharpest blade.” coupling that declaration w/ vast subsidies, talent visas + procurement guarantees which have helped them take lead in 37 of 44 critical and emerging technologies!
3/ Upending American science seemed an impossible order.
Regularly copied and always envied, but never rivaled.
Constructed by visionaries like Vannevar Bush in the ashes of WWII + propelled by brilliant legislation like Bayh-Dole Act––we did the impossible: an open scientific enterprise that could simultaneously probe into the furthest frontiers while translating the most original insights uncovered into the most prosperous companies in the world.