Thread by @RhysLindmark

1/ Saw this comment on @SamuelHBlack's stream the other day.

Is UWx really that much better in #MTGCapenna draft?

Yes! Let's use @17Lands data to show why.

2/ First, we can get an instinct on this by showing color pair win rates.

WU, GW, and WUG have by far the best WRs. All above 60% while next best is 57%.

Also note that you should draft two-color if you can. h/t @Sierkovitz

https://twitter.com/Sierkovitz/status/1520013985617223686

3/ Let's go deeper! Why is UWx so much better?

Because you can get good cards late before the meta adjusts.

We can represent this with a GIH WR vs. ATA graph.

Lots of W and U cards above the line.

UWx is a one-way ticket to Value Town.

4/ We can quantify the amount above the line with Value Above Replacement Pick (VORP).

Here are the aggregated VORPs for each color.

Draft UW! Don't draft R!

5/ Here's blue.

Total VORP = 2.44

6/ Two great uncommons.

When will people learn that uncommon blue bounce + draw a card is always one of the best uncommons in the set? Out of the Way's ATA is 5.22!

Two great commons going late.

Run Out of Town and Majestic Metamorphosis's ATA is 9.5.

MM is the new Suit Up.

7/ Here's white.

Total VORP = 2.26

8/ Everyone's talking about Inspiring Overseer as the mythic common of the set (true), but Raffine's Informant actually has slightly higher VORP. It's taken 6th!

Citizen's Crowbar and Mage's Attendant are the best uncommon two and three drops for aggressive white decks.

9/ Here's green.

Total VORP = 0.62

10/ Green is weird.

- It has an amazing bomb in Workshop Warchief.
- For the Family and Warm Welcome are taken 11th and 9th, but play really well.
- Jewel Thief is power creep on steroids.

11/ Here's black.

Total VORP = -0.15

12/ Most of black's VORP comes from Fake Your Own Death, Girder Goods, and Night Clubber being underdrafted.

But it's hurt by people highly drafting duds like Shadow of Mortality.

13/ Here's red.

Total VORP = -2.19

14/ Stay away!

Involuntary Employment and Antagonize are underdrafted, but the rest are overdrafted.

Goldhound is taken 8th, but has a GIH WR of 0.50, so has a VORP of -0.14. Eep!

Call In a Professional is a good card ofc, but is taken 3rd. Too highly given red is weak.

15/ We can also look at aggregated two-color VORP.

Stay away from BR and RG gold cards!

16/ Although two-color decks are good, everyone should take the two-color gold cards lower.

Pick the lands, stay away from the rares.

17/ Pick these workhorse commons:

Snooping Newsie
Civil Servant
Celestial Regulator

And ofc, Exotic Pets 🙂

18/ Finally, we can look at aggregated family VORP.

19/ Brokers:

Total VORP = 0.96

20/ Strong uncommons, Disciplined Duelist and Lagrella.

A good common creature fixer, Spara's Adjudicators.

And a strong Ascendancy.

21/ Interestingly: The most underrated card for many families is their lands.

ATA around 7, but super crucial to make a 3-color deck work.

Take them in the 5-7 range until the meta adjusts!

22/ Maestros:

Total VORP = 0.40

23/ Maestros have two super strong rares: Hostile Takeover and Maestros Diabolist.

Corpse Appraiser is a beastly uncommon.

The rest of the cards are pretty meh, like their Ascendancy.

Only draft UBR if you see the top three cards.

24/ Obscura:

Total VORP = -0.20

25/ This is surprising because:

- W and U is good
- WU is good
- WUG is good

Why not WUB?

Only two good uncommons (Nimble Larcenist and Queza) while the rest is meh.

Draft WUG for 3-color cards and WUB for good black commons.

26/ Cabaretti:

Total VORP = -0.96

27/ Fleetfoot Dancer is an obvious beast. If you find your way into GW, splash this.

Cabaretti Ascendancy is bad, don't play it.

28/ Riveteers:

Total VORP = -1.57

29/ Not even the Riveteer tri-color land has a positive VORP!

Don't play this color rn.

R is bad. RBG is bad.

Ziatora's Envoy is taken 1st or 2nd pick. Don't be tempted.

Its GIH WR is only 0.57 and has a VORP of -0.14!

30/ Finally, artifacts look like this.

31/ Yes, Quick-Draw Dagger is the truth.

h/t @Deathsie

https://twitter.com/Deathsie/status/1520523344885391361

@Deathsie 32/ Hope this thread is helpful for you drafters out there!

In summary:

Until the meta adjusts,

a) Draft UWx.
Brokers (WUG) or Obscura (WUB).

b) Stay away from red.

c) Expect lots of UWx on the mythic ladder.

@Deathsie 33/ Thank you to @twoduckcubed for the initial inspiration:

https://twitter.com/twoduckcubed/status/1371700124460716032

@Deathsie @twoduckcubed 34/ Here's my other thread on VORP for Crimson Vow:

https://twitter.com/RhysLindmark/status/1466927925593133056

@Deathsie @twoduckcubed 35/ Here's a google sheet with all of the data.

(I forgot to mention that I removed mythics because they don't have much data yet + skew the results a bit. As if you didn't have enough reason to draft white...)

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@Deathsie @twoduckcubed 36/ If you analyses like these, please support @17Lands on Patreon here! patreon.com/17lands

@Deathsie @twoduckcubed @17Lands 37/ cc'ing some magic data nerds who might be interested:

@lordtupperware @Chord_O_Calls @lsv @marshall_lr @rcsaxe