Will provide an update on the Battle of the Donbas later, but reading between the lines of the Ukrainian military communique this morning, does really seem that Russian forward movement is bogging down and the Russians are almost scared to advance. kmu.gov.ua/en/news/operat…
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1520313940688912384
Struck by this paragraph near the end. Ukrainians seem mostly to be hitting Russian artillery, not many tanks at all. Plus shall we say a little confidence about repelling the Russian assaults. Remember, the Battle supposedly started 2 weeks ago. 
If the Ukrainians destroyed 17 artillery systems (very large amount) and only 2
Tanks (seems very small), it could indicate that the fight was mostly ranged engagements with few Russian advances where tanks have been exposed.
Tanks (seems very small), it could indicate that the fight was mostly ranged engagements with few Russian advances where tanks have been exposed.
OK, we have today's Ukrainian claims of Russian equipment losses. Ive updated the chart (2-day intervals) to show how these have progressed. Tanks still considerably down from the peak of the first phase of the Battle of the Donbas, APCs on the rise again.
Confirms that starting a few days ago the combat intensity in the region levelled off or started decreasing (this figure covers all of Ukraine btw, though Russian offensive action is mostly focussed on the Donbas). This is confirms the pessimistic assumptions of Russian tactics.
On April 17, before the battle started. I wondered if what we would see, in Putin's deluded haste to declare a victory on May 9th, was some drip feeding of Russian formations into action when they were ready. If anything, this analysis was too kind.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1515589420145160194?s=20&t=IOMSFFZ1kHe4VEUSv6K4ug
What we see is lots of little attacks up and down the line--little effective coordination, no sense of an overall priority. The map of the Donbas is basically little eruptions of Russian efforts, with only fractional gains.
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1520916380404617216?s=20&t=IOMSFFZ1kHe4VEUSv6K4ug
The next drip-feed Russian attack might come from the south of the Donbas, BTGs sent from Mariupol. Doubt they will be terribly effective having experienced that campaign for weeks. Seems the Russians are again moving troops around like its a war game.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1520052205956571136?s=20&t=IOMSFFZ1kHe4VEUSv6K4ug
So we have a levelling off or decreasing of combat intensity. Russians still making lots of little attacks, but with little gains, still suffering significant losses and the Ukrainians showing increasing proficiency with ranged weapons (and attacks in Russia itself)
Reality seems to be dawning on Russian leadership that the Battle of Donbas is shaping up as an wasting effort by their army.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1520983467307188225?s=20&t=IOMSFFZ1kHe4VEUSv6K4ug
Info for the Battle of the Donbas. Pentagon saying that either Russian troops or Russian commanders are basically unwilling to act aggressively because of fear of casualties. Russian troops have been in theatre for 2 months. Many Russian forces should be close to breaking
https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1521159513042259975
Yep, sounds like Russian forces are getting a little tired of dying for Putin.
https://twitter.com/danlamothe/status/1521181746158612481
And sounds like no new Russian forces coming in. If this is true and the cupboard is basically bare (few new Russian reinforcements coming ) than the Battle of the Donbas really is just another operation to wreck the Russian army. Battle of Kyiv mark 2.
https://twitter.com/danlamothe/status/1521182956236296194
How anyone could have considered this Russian armed forces the second strongest in the world beggars belief. They wouldn’t make the top 10.
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