Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 2 9 tweets 3 min read
It has been a little while since I've talked about truck tires, but I've been DM-ed a couple of photos what are worth a thread.🧵

This is a Russian Grad launch truck with really old tires.👇

1/
Let's take a closer look at a clip of the front tire in the photo after I've played with the light & color.

There are cracks in the sidewall consistent with a really old tire along with rubber peeling debris at the bottom in the tire fold.

2/
The photo clip of the rear tire played with the same way is simply too blurry to determine more about the tire other than its marking nearest the hub are artifacts from its vulcanization curing press.👇

Hold that thought!

3/
This second photo is an unblurred close up of one of those two tires, and oh boy, is there a story here for your eyes to tell.

Sun rotting cracks are all over the side wall.

Now look lower middle, right, at the tire manufacturing marks.

"MADE IN USSR" in English script!!
4/
The USSR officially ended on December 25, 1991. We, in 2022, are looking at tire on a Grad launcher in Ukraine that could be 31 years old!

Two things to consider here. The script means this tire was for an outside the USSR market.

At a guess, It was probably made for India.
5/
2nd, there would have been a time lapse between the end of the USSR & the replacement/modification of the vulcanization curing press making Russian Truck tires.

That is, that tire can be much younger than 31 years.

Or it could be older.

6/
It is more likely younger, but it would require a technical marking table to decode the manufacturer mark in the circle above the "MADE IN THE USSR" script.

The sun rot on the tire & marking strongly suggests the Russians are suffering a serious truck tire shortage.

7/
Somebody reached deeply into a storage depot somewhere in the Russian Federation to get those Cold War era tires because there was nothing else.

You don't put something that potentially dangerous on a major weapons system unless you are desperate. Even if you are Russian.

8/
This, BTW, is why technical intelligence units collect all the manufacturing information on captured equipment to build files on where/by whom/when enemy kit is made.

It gives you trends on the enemy economy you can find nowhere else.

Like Russia is short of truck tires.

9/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 3
Interesting. The Russian Navy is keeping its landing ships away from Crimea👇

There are implications in this.

A NATO naval policy thread🧵
I wonder of someone passed the Russians this RUSI Tweet on the UK trying to get the Blue Spear & the Norwegian Naval Strike Missile (NSM) to Ukraine.

The NSN would cut Russian sea lines of communication into Sevastopol

2/
...when launched from the Ukrainian Black Sea coast.

RUSI mentioned this article in the its post.

3/
thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2…
Read 9 tweets
May 3
This is a really nice photographic example of proper aerial mechanized logistics applied to moving 155mm shells complete with the US DoT & IATA safety markings.

And the shipment work is never done until the paperwork is filled out.😊

Air cargo thread🧵
1/
Acronym Decodes:

IATA - International Air Traffic Association
DoT - Dept of Transportation
DoD - Dept of Defense

Air cargo is a complicated business because of overlapping jurisdictions and international regulations via the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) &

2/
...the Chicago Convention, the international treaty that still governs the conduct of international air transport.

The link provides a nice overview.
carolana.com/NC/Transportat…
3/
Read 17 tweets
May 2
@QoqoBulos We have examples from our own nuclear history that make my speculation perfectly reasonable for public debate.

"A number of the Polaris warheads were replaced in the early 1960s, when corrosion of the pits was discovered during routine maintenance.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W47
@QoqoBulos ...Failures of the W45, W47, and W52 warheads are still an active part of the debate about the reliability of the US nuclear weapons force moving into the future, without ongoing nuclear testing.[6]

A one-point safety test performed on the W47 warhead just prior the 1958...

2/
@QoqoBulos ... moratorium (Hardtack/Neptune) failed, yielding a 100-ton explosion. Because the test ban prohibited the testing needed for inherently safe one-point safe designs, a makeshift solution was adopted: a boron-cadmium wire was folded inside the pit during manufacture, and...
3/
Read 7 tweets
May 1
This is something tweeted at me which needs to be addressed as it is a common assumption people make which isn't true, AKA Russian weapons are all trash.

It simply is not true.

I'm will explain why that is using the design history behind the M-1 Abrams vs. the T-90.🧵

1/
Let's take the S-300 surface to air missile system in Ukrainian & Russian hands.

In Ukrainian hands it has been shooting down the supersonic Kh-31 anti-radar missile and various Russian cruise missiles.

2/
A version of the S-300 on the Moskva, the S-300F, NATO reporting name SA-N-6, failed to stop a Ukrainian Neptun cruise missile.

The difference was the human capital behind the weapons system.

2/
Read 27 tweets
Apr 30
This is a insightful 15 tweet thread on the "Battle of Donbas' by @PhillipsPOBrien looking at Russian loss rates versus Ukrainian. You should read it all.👇

I'm going to highlight bits in this thread🧵to make a point about trucks
1/
This tweet in the thread talks about Russian Army units being tied to supply dumps closer & closer to the front lines.

This is consistent & expected with high levels of attrition, both combat & operational, in the Russian Army tactical truck fleet.

2/
As the Russian tactical truck fleet diminishes, the depth of Russian break-ins gets shallower & the chance of any sort of breakthrough followed by mobile operations disappears.

This is how a Pentagon spokesman phrased this problem👇
3/
Read 17 tweets
Apr 29
>>The qualities that make someone an effective and profitable thief preclude other skill sets.

The above statement is at the heart of Russia's shortcoming in Ukraine & possibly with Russia's nuclear arsenal.🧵

The idea that this situation goes from Russian Army platoon
1/
...Lieutenant to Putin himself plus every level of procurement supporting the Russian military still hasn't sunk deeply into the minds of Western Defense Analysts.

Specifically, the USA spends $10 million a year supporting each and every active nuclear weapon in it's arsenal.
2/
That's $10 billion a year.

Russia's entire 2021 defense budget was estimated at $41.6 billion for EVERYTHING.

The levels of corruption demonstrated in Ukraine are such that the West needs to deeply consider the strategic implications of the Russian nuclear arsenal being

3/
Read 21 tweets

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