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Éric Grenier Profile picture
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May 2 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Conservative leadership Q1 fundraising (up to Mar. 31):

$545,298 - Poilievre
$490,088 - Charest
$225,571 - Lewis
$115,775 - Brown
$90,945 - Aitchison
$53,987 - Baber

#cpcldr
Each candidate got their fundraising up and running at different points near the end of March. Per day it breaks down this way:

$54.5K/day - Poilievre
$37.7K/day - Charest
$16.5K/day - Brown
$15.1K/day - Lewis
$8.3K/day - Aitchison
$6.7K/day - Baber
It's hard to judge Poilievre's fundraising, since he declared so early but only started registering donations as of around Mar. 22.
Average donation size:

$1,586 - Brown
$1,299 - Aitchison
$815 - Charest
$163 - Poilievre
$155 - Lewis
$114 - Baber

Brown, Aitchison securing the big donors in the early days (both had ~70 contributors). Poilievre, Lewis, Baber more of a grassroots thing. Charest in between.

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More from @EricGrenierTW

Éric Grenier Profile picture
Sep 7, 2021
First sizable day-to-day drop for the Conservatives in the Poll Tracker this morning. In the first few weeks, they were getting these kinds of increases in the day-to-day changes. newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll… Image
Reminder that the new polls added this morning were in the field from Sept. 3-6, so it isn't just one day of polling.
To delve into this a little more, since their last independent samples the shifts in the three daily tracking polls this morning are:

CON -1.7, LIB -1.6 (EKOS)
CON -3.7, LIB +3.4 (Nanos)
CON -0.8, LIB -1.0 (Mainstreet)
Read 4 tweets
Éric Grenier Profile picture
Jun 14, 2021
So, I have, as they say, some personal news. After nearly seven years working with the CBC in the parliamentary bureau as the CBC's polls analyst, I've decided it is time to move on and do something different.
It's been an incredible honour and privilege to work in the Ottawa bureau these past few years. My former colleagues there are the best in the business, and they constantly kept me in awe of their professionalism, dedication and limitless curiosity.
I have a new project that I am working on that I'm really excited about, and I can't wait to share more about it soon. Watch this space for more.
Read 5 tweets
Éric Grenier Profile picture
May 25, 2020
Here are two more examples of how the response to the pandemic is helping some governing parties. In Nova Scotia, a new Narrative Research poll has the McNeil Liberals at 57%, up 14 points from February. Government satisfaction at 77%, a "record high". narrativeresearch.ca/mcneil-liberal…
In Prince Edward Island, Dennis King's minority PCs now have 54% support, up nine points since February. Government satisfaction is at 92% (!), another record. narrativeresearch.ca/pei-government…
In Ontario, Doug Ford's own ratings have skyrocketed and the PCs are up, too, but not enough to supplant the Ontario Liberals.
Read 4 tweets
Éric Grenier Profile picture
Apr 17, 2019
Some thoughts on the election results in Alberta, with the caveat that we are still waiting on the "vote anywhere" ballots to be counted. Could flip a handful of seats and change the popular vote a tad, but nothing that would overturn the big picture. Let's dive in.
Obviously, a big win for the UCP, who stand at 63 seats and 55% of the vote. That's better than in 2015, when the PCs and Wildrose combined for 52%. The NDP dropped from 41% to 32%, which still stands as their second-best performance ever.
The Alberta Party did pretty well at 9%, but without a concentration of support anywhere they did not win a seat. Only finished 2nd in one riding, that being Calgary-Elbow where Greg Clark was the incumbent. Liberals tanked to 1%, leader David Khan managed just 6% in his seat.
Read 12 tweets
Éric Grenier Profile picture
Jan 28, 2019
Interesting Mainstreet poll on the B.C. provincial byelection in Nanaimo that could decide the fate of the minority NDP government. Shows an 8.5-pt Liberal lead, with 43.5% for Tony Harris (LIB) to 35% for Sheila Malcolmson (NDP). Some thoughts... mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-liberals-le…
The poll had weak numbers for the Greens at 12.2%, which is surprising considering the low numbers for the NDP as well. The results in 2017 were 46.5% NDP, 32.5% LIB, 19.9% GRN. So suggests a big drop in support for both the NDP and Greens, with Liberals and CON/OTH benefiting.
Note that the poll has two sets of numbers, those testing support with the party leaders and those testing support with the candidates in the actual byelection. I'm focusing only on the latter results. One thing stood out to me in the crosstabs.
Read 10 tweets

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