I don't like predicting anything in the Russo-Ukrainian war, but I feel like Ukraine may recapture Snake Island, or at the very least, force a Russian retreat.
Up until her sinking, Moskva was used as a mobile A2/AD asset, enforcing air and sea space wherever she sailed.
1/11
Up until her sinking, Moskva was used as a mobile A2/AD asset, enforcing air and sea space wherever she sailed.
1/11
She was especially active around Snake Island. I suspect she escorted supplies to and from the island, after its capture, and provided regional quasi-air supremacy. Her inherent lack of LACM's, and far reaching SAM made her attractive for this role.
2/11
navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
2/11
navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
The island in question isn't particularly accessible to the Russians. Looking at Snake Island from Google maps, this inaccessibility is quite noticeable. The island can only be reached by helicopters (e.g. from warships) or ships, for it lacks any airstrips.
3/11
3/11
The Russians, of course, did reinforce this island. Specifically with C2, GBAD, and EW-assets. However, the sinking of Moskva came with ramifications.
In her absence, Ukraine used its TB2 UCAVs to conduct strikes on the island.
4/11
In her absence, Ukraine used its TB2 UCAVs to conduct strikes on the island.
4/11
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1519141282618220545
I have reasons to believe Ukraine indeed struck a Strela-10 SAM system on Snake Island, alongside other Russians assets, sometime after the sinking of Moskva.
Similarly, Ukrainian Air Force aircraft are spotted flying over Odessa more frequently.
5/11
Similarly, Ukrainian Air Force aircraft are spotted flying over Odessa more frequently.
5/11
https://twitter.com/MEPOSINT/status/1520437606508544004
To creep up against and target short-range air defense systems with TB2 is something the Azeri's mastered in the 2020 Karabkh war. Over two dozen Armenian Osa and Strela-10 were destroyed this way.
TB2 is difficult to detect for these platforms, due to its small RCS.
6/11
TB2 is difficult to detect for these platforms, due to its small RCS.
6/11
My guess is that Ukraine destroyed whatever critical GBAD systems the Russians had on Snake Island by means of TB2 strikes.
As of today, they've reached the point where they can target Russian supply vessels that approach Snake Island.
7/11
As of today, they've reached the point where they can target Russian supply vessels that approach Snake Island.
7/11
https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status/1521022750084763648
It is not cost-effective for Russia to try and occupy, and reinforce the island when Ukraine can preform airstrikes by means of near-disposable TB2's.
An option would be to deploy heavier and more capable GBAD, but those would be susceptible to other attacks.
8/11
An option would be to deploy heavier and more capable GBAD, but those would be susceptible to other attacks.
8/11
Another option would be to assign one of two Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates in the BS to doing what Moskva did and act as an escort around the coast and Snake Island.
These frigates are valuable assets in preforming land attacks, making it suboptimal for dedicated AAW.
9/11
These frigates are valuable assets in preforming land attacks, making it suboptimal for dedicated AAW.
9/11
Supposedly, the S-400 SAM site in Crimea is to cover Snake Island, but I think its not within its radar horizon/LOS.
Unless third party assets provide search and tracking, that SAM site cannot engage that far, I think, I haven't looked into with much details, yet.
10/11
Unless third party assets provide search and tracking, that SAM site cannot engage that far, I think, I haven't looked into with much details, yet.
10/11
All of this combined is why and how I think Ukraine has a chance of recapturing, or at the least denying Russia entry to Snake Island.
Russia would want to control this island if it wants a land-locked Ukraine, supposedly a goal of the Kremlin.
11/11
Russia would want to control this island if it wants a land-locked Ukraine, supposedly a goal of the Kremlin.
11/11
Footage of a TB2 UCAV strike targeting a ZU-23-2 installation on Snake Island on April 30th.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521228670878298114?t=wjyQvuulSHWLcj9otIYfcw&s=19
Footage of the TB2 UCAV strike that destroyed a Stela-10 system, as aforementioned in this thread, on April 30th.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521264087174426632?t=wjyQvuulSHWLcj9otIYfcw&s=19
A Tor GBAD system was also hit and destroyed on Snake Island, it seems.
Whatever A2/AD environment the Russians had set up got completely and utterly annihilated on the island.
Whatever A2/AD environment the Russians had set up got completely and utterly annihilated on the island.
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1522522998888087552?t=pd12qfParl85C9xFA-9CfA&s=19
Another Tor SAM system and a Serna-class landing craft were destroyed around Snake Island.
Once again, hit and destroyed by a Bayraktar TB2 UCAV.
Once again, hit and destroyed by a Bayraktar TB2 UCAV.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522853902101667842?t=1iAUykF39bCZbvXqKKp-nw&s=19
This tweet suits this thread well.
https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status/1522942018581897216
Ukrainian Air Force Su-27's bombarding Snake Island after GBAD were mopped up by TB2. I love the synergy!
This was very likely sometime between May 6 and 7, because that's when almost all facilities on the island were destroyed.
Image via: @obretix
This was very likely sometime between May 6 and 7, because that's when almost all facilities on the island were destroyed.
Image via: @obretix
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1523027490230444035?t=Bl7EslyuCu6zVXpfup_7uA&s=19
Wow!
Reportedly last night, Ukrainian TB2 UCAV successfully hit and destroyed, what appears to be a Russian military Mi-8 helicopter. Insane! Ukraine is targeting Russian sea and air reinforcements with TB2!
Reportedly last night, Ukrainian TB2 UCAV successfully hit and destroyed, what appears to be a Russian military Mi-8 helicopter. Insane! Ukraine is targeting Russian sea and air reinforcements with TB2!
Yesterday evening, on May 7th, ANOTHER Raptor-class patrol boat was hit multiple times and destroyed by Ukrainian TB2 UCAVs around Snake Island.
This one took multiple hits and is seen burning toward the end.
This one took multiple hits and is seen burning toward the end.
Important to note, the Ukrainian Navy says two(2) Raptor-class patrol boats were hit, not one.
The editing makes it difficult to discern.
The editing makes it difficult to discern.
https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status/1523206892298063874?t=UpP79DiuALKTbSlSVqLZaA&s=19
Besides confirming the helicopter is Russian, an Mi-8AMTSh, Wagner is also reporting the island has been abandoned by Russian forces.
The Russians have reportedly retreated from Snake Island!
The Russians have reportedly retreated from Snake Island!
https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status/1523269828324343808?t=FbxrFEfyKSSK9GR3G26FwQ&s=19
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