Thread by @Peoples_Pundit

The Establishment wants Matt Dolan to win tomorrow win Ohio. He would probably be the least representative of the entire pack, but that could happen if they succeed in fracturing the America First vote.

That being said, because of the lack of vote history in a closed primary, it is entirely possible that some pollsters are over representing the educated, reliable GOP primary vote in the Buckeye State, and underrepresenting the new pro-Trump converts with no primary vote history.

That also being said, America First can't take anything for granted in Ohio given how much $ the Establishment dumped into Matt Dolan on top of his own fortune.

It's a remarkable dynamic considering it's a state that Republicans can squander by returning to the Establishment.

Now, with all that out of the way, the general election strength of a candidate in Ohio is not at all connected to primary performance.

If you missed that on #WhatAreTheOdds earlier, the short version is that @JDVance1 is almost assuredly the strongest GE candidate.

Glad you asked, B/C this is where I'm going with this entire thread.

Short answer: Yes, Dolan (@dolan4ohio) is without a doubt the weakest general election candidate.

In Trumbull and other Obama/Trump counties, he will be weak. Cleveland will be bloody.

https://twitter.com/FrontRunnerPol/status/1521296043702431744?s=20&t=Ze_ggSFhfWrfJpVe0JmTwQ

If the @dolan4ohio surge is real and he were to eke it out, Republicans will likely have to learn a painful lesson about looking backward and not forward.

G.W. Bush's suburbs in Franklin County are gone. Karl Rove had a meltdown in 2012 over (Mi)it.

Where are the votes? Nowhere