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Sridhar V

@sritara

May 2

Here I go with another THREAD on #LICIPO – updating my earlier figures, indicating an even bigger scam than I had revealed, published BEFORE the Red Herring Prospectus was revealed on April 27. Read that story here newsclick.in/lics-ipo-scam-…

1.THIS is the mother of all scams – the Balco privatisation scam of 2001 (during the Vajpayee days) pales in comparison. Let’s dive right into the pricing of the IPO because that is where the scam is.

2.The IPO is priced at Rs. 904-949/share. Lets forget the lower bound, its inconsequential. Retail investors & LIC employees get to pay a max of Rs. 904/share and Policyholders pay Rs. 889. Remember the Embedded Value estimate (Rs 853/share) made by Govt’s agent Milliman?

Read 17 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

Apr 26

THREAD
1.As the #LICIPO looms with the NaMo Govt in a headlong rush, here is a thread on why I consider the IPO to be India’s biggest-ever privation scam - based on an article that will appear later today.

2. The revised offer is for 3.5 % of the Govt stake in LIC - amounting to 22.1375 crore shares - instead of the 5% planned earlier - amounting to offer of 31.625 crore shares. As a result, the size of the offer falls from about Rs 70-75,000 crores to about Rs. 21000 crores.

3. The “quantity effect” in the revised offer arises from the shares on offer being 30 per cent lower than previously planned. But the price effect is at play here, which is why this is a scam, the biggest in annals of Indian privatisation

Read 16 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

Feb 14

Thread on #LICIPO and valuation

1 Brief assessment from my hospital bed on LIC valuation based on DHRP filed with SEBI on Feb 13. The Govt plans to offload 5% of its stake, no fresh issue of shares. This means 31.625 crore shares will be offered for sale.

2. The real meat of the DHRP, which is relevant for the valuation of #LICIPO, is the section on the calculation of the Indian Embedded Value (IEV).

3. Most strikingly, the IEV at the end of Sept 2021 was Rs. 5.397 lakh crores, an increase of a whopping 465 % over the IEV computed for March 2021, just 6 months earlier!

Read 10 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

Feb 9

@newsclickin

Thread on #LICIPO

Based on forthcoming series on #LIC in @newsclickin
Part 1 - on valuation

1 India’s biggest-ever IPO will rest on what is determined to be #LIC’s Embedded value (EV). It promises to be the mother of all privatisation scams.

2 The notion that the EV of an insurance company captures its true worth is being cited as gospel. Nothing could be farther from the truth, for 2 reasons: a) as a measure the EV suffers from serious problems, because of the kind of assumptions/ methodologies it adopts

3 b) the EV ignores the specific characteristics of #LIC as a financial institution, sui generis in the world of finance. Nothing like it exists anywhere in the world. In my forthcoming article I examine how on both counts the valuation exercise would undervalue its real worth.

Read 20 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

Oct 29, 2021

Journalists challenging The Hindu's arbitrary computation of dearness allowance win as the Madras High Court rules in their favour. The management's stonewalling hasn't - it now has pay arrears to journalists running into lakhs. Let them figure out the moral of the story😂

Hasn't helped

Some who challenged the management's wanton disregard for norms were even sacked during the pandemic. This is a great victory for those souls who resisted this brazen assault, against a management which simply refused to listen to pleas for reason by its employees.

Read 8 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

Jun 27, 2021

A thread on the Centre’s projected supplies of Covid vaccines.
1. This is based on the Govt’s latest affidavit. We are told that 1350 m doses are coming between Aug and Dec. The chart depicts the pipe dream

2. The only possible credible number in that chart pertains to project supplies of Covishield, by SII. It is to supply 500 m doses out if a total of 1350 doses b/w Aug and Dec 2021 - @ of 3.33 m doses/day.

3. This is feasible at a stretch because we k ow SII has supplied @ 3.04 m doses/day in June (1-22) that I have tracked. For the sake of India’s horribly jinxed vaccine story so far, I hope this materialises.

Read 15 tweets

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