1 Thought for the day, on a THREAD: Why are we apparently so hopelessly & viciously divided on NaMo’s DeMo? Read my piece where I explain thewire.in/economy/rs-200… But there’s more 2 I reckon it is perhaps the Indian elite’s inability to comprehend the lives/livelihoods of ordinary folk and their ties to currency (money). Money in currency form is NOT just about making payments for buying/selling stuff. The elite just don’t get this.

1 The data on #GST revenues arrives on the first of every month. And, every month, the Indian media - financial as well as general - hypes the numbers, nodding in agreement with the sarkar that it has touched a new "record". Here is a Thread based on April GST collections 2 There is neither context that anchors the latest numbers to some reference point, which could be either in terms of comparison to the previous year or in relation to the size of the economy (GDP at current prices, for instance).

1Thread illustrating the lackadaisical use of “data” showing an ongoing “surge” in investment in India, notably by the private sector, an issue on which NaMo and FinMin Nirmala Sitharaman have been repeatedly pleading with industry thehindu.com/business/Econo… 2 This news report relies entirely on “announcements” made by companies about their investment in projects, gathered by Projects Today, a pvt priced publication. As we know very well announcements, more often than not, DO NOT translate into inv on the ground

1 THREAD on the SC’s order today constituting an expert committee to enquire into the #Hindenburg allegations. The supreme irony is that #SEBI gets away scot-free. Crucially, invoking the holy grail of “investor protection” is how #SEBI escapes court criticism/scrutiny 2 It is important to reiterate that crux of the Hindenburg allegations rest on the claim that the ownership of the #Adani Group Cos is concentrated above SEBI-set levels through entities not at arms length from the promoters. The rest of the allegations stem from this central one

1 THREAD on national income estimates announced today for Q3 of 2022-23. The abiding message is that the statistical illusion created by the collapse of economy since pandemic is still very much in play. Beware of smoke and mirrors! 2 GDP in 2022-23 is expected to grow by 7% in real terms, GVA by 6.6%. This is a slowdown of 2.1 %age points and 2.2 %age points, respectively.

1 THREAD on LIC and its investments in the Adani Group - why #LIC has been imprudent, reckless and irresponsible in squandering money belonging to its policyholders. Why even now, it may not be too late for it to cut its losses and run from the fire. indianexpress.com/article/busine… 2 LIC has stakes in 5 Adani Group companies of which its earliest substantive acquisition was in Adani Ports in Sept 2000. LIC management has defended itself by saying that the acquisitions in Group cos were made “over a period”. <3 years does not suggest long term!

1THREAD on the investigation conducted by @MSCI_Inc on the “true” extent of “free float” of #Adani Group companies confirms prima facie the core allegation of the #Hindenburg report that the “public” shareholding is in violation of SEBI’s regulations.SEBI napping for >18 months? 2 MSCI reveals that several constituents of the Adani Group can no longer be eligible for its indices is damning indication that SEBI has been in gross dereliction of its key duties as a regulator.
economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks…

1.A THREAD on the Adani Enterprises FPO that closed today. The FPO sails through but this is unlikely to settle the share's volatility in the days ahead. Most significant facet of FPO was that non-institutional investors (NII) bid for 3.19 of the 5.08 crore shares bid for - 63% 2. But even more strikingly, even within the category of NII, those with bids of ABOVE Rs.10 lakhs accounted for 99.75 % of this category.

1. As more questions continue to mount about the fate of the #Adani FPO, here is a THREAD on the LIC’s participation in it. 2. By its own admission the LIC management today made an unprecedented announcement “clarifying” its investment role in the controversial and sagging FPO.

THREAD
On latest GDP estimates
1.The statistical illusion cast by the use of percentages in the midst of volatility is a common malaise in the media. I explore this in this thread and ask how credible is the claim (yet again) that a recovery is just round the corner. 2.First the facts: GDP increased 8.7% in 2021-22; Q4 GDP rose 4.1%, compared to 2.5% in Q$ of 2020-21. Hints at a clear sign of a recovery? No, not so fast.

THREAD on #LICIPO

1 As the LIC share lists today, I ask a simple question: will the omniscient “market” reveal the true worth of India’s biggest life insurance company? I argue that it is pointless to argue over this. This thread explains. 2 If the share “pops” on debut day will it soothe the sagging fortunes of the stock markets? Or, if it slips close to the issue price of Rs 949, would it justify the gross undervaluation of the share in India’s biggest-ever privatisation scandal?

THREAD 👇🏼

1As the #LICIPO opens today for retail investors here is a short thread of my pieces since 2020 revealing the anatomy of India’s biggest-ever privatisation scandal 2 I start with this piece, written in Feb 2020, after FinMin first announced intent to “sell” LIC. I asked: how can you sell something you do not even own? frontline.thehindu.com/economy/articl…

Here I go with another THREAD on #LICIPO – updating my earlier figures, indicating an even bigger scam than I had revealed, published BEFORE the Red Herring Prospectus was revealed on April 27. Read that story here newsclick.in/lics-ipo-scam-… 1.THIS is the mother of all scams – the Balco privatisation scam of 2001 (during the Vajpayee days) pales in comparison. Let’s dive right into the pricing of the IPO because that is where the scam is.

THREAD
1.As the #LICIPO looms with the NaMo Govt in a headlong rush, here is a thread on why I consider the IPO to be India’s biggest-ever privation scam - based on an article that will appear later today. 2. The revised offer is for 3.5 % of the Govt stake in LIC - amounting to 22.1375 crore shares - instead of the 5% planned earlier - amounting to offer of 31.625 crore shares. As a result, the size of the offer falls from about Rs 70-75,000 crores to about Rs. 21000 crores.

Thread on #LICIPO and valuation

1 Brief assessment from my hospital bed on LIC valuation based on DHRP filed with SEBI on Feb 13. The Govt plans to offload 5% of its stake, no fresh issue of shares. This means 31.625 crore shares will be offered for sale. 2. The real meat of the DHRP, which is relevant for the valuation of #LICIPO, is the section on the calculation of the Indian Embedded Value (IEV).

Thread on #LICIPO

Based on forthcoming series on #LIC in @newsclickin
Part 1 - on valuation

1 India’s biggest-ever IPO will rest on what is determined to be #LIC’s Embedded value (EV). It promises to be the mother of all privatisation scams. 2 The notion that the EV of an insurance company captures its true worth is being cited as gospel. Nothing could be farther from the truth, for 2 reasons: a) as a measure the EV suffers from serious problems, because of the kind of assumptions/ methodologies it adopts

Journalists challenging The Hindu's arbitrary computation of dearness allowance win as the Madras High Court rules in their favour. The management's stonewalling hasn't - it now has pay arrears to journalists running into lakhs. Let them figure out the moral of the story😂 Hasn't helped

A thread on the Centre’s projected supplies of Covid vaccines.
1. This is based on the Govt’s latest affidavit. We are told that 1350 m doses are coming between Aug and Dec. The chart depicts the pipe dream 2. The only possible credible number in that chart pertains to project supplies of Covishield, by SII. It is to supply 500 m doses out if a total of 1350 doses b/w Aug and Dec 2021 - @ of 3.33 m doses/day.

Thread on vaccination in states on June 22
1. Now for how the champion states of June 21 fared y’day. The six champions of MP, Karnataka, UP, Bihar, Gujarat and Haryana - in that order - accounted for 58% of vaccinations on July 21. How did the fare the day after? 2. Strikingly, all of them slid sharply as shown in the attached chart. The two prime champions of 21st slid by 96 % (MP) and 64 % (K'taka), respectively. UP was the only one among these states that increased vaccination-by 14 %. Who dares to say vaccines are not about politics?

A short thread on vaccination on June 22, 2021. An inevitable fall from the peak?
6.07 m vaccines were delivered y’day, a fall of 32 % from a day earlier, clearly demonstrating that the spike is unsustainable. 2. Covaxin dose deliveries, the weak link in the chain, fell by 23 %. Covishield, the mainstay, which accounted for >95% of vaccinations y’day, fell by >32 % and Sputnik, of which only 4125 doses were delivered y’day increased marginally.

THREAD on the spectacular single-day spike on June 21 - a whopping 8.87 million doses administered in India.
1. The questions to ask are: How may this have happened? Is this sustainable over a longer time frame? 2. First, the context. Vaccine doses delivered yesterday was 42 % higher than the previous highest single-day number registered on March 16 (6.25 m doses). Indeed, apart from the March instance, dose delivery crossed 5 m/day only once - on April 7. So, this is indeed a big deal.