Thread by @ABarbashin

Can Putin just call THIS a victory and be done with it?
There is an ongoing discussion about it.
I don't think he can do a "full Syria" at this point any longer.
This war gone too far and there are no longer good options for the Kremlin.
Thread 1/11

Sure, Russians or at the very least half of the nation believe propaganda. They believe Russia is fighting NATO via Ukraine as proxy, there are all sort of horrors happening in Ukraine but Russia is on the right side of history, "victory will be ours" and all that.
2/11

So on May 9th or May 29th Putin can address the nation and declare A victory. "Russia has liberated Donbas. People that suffered there are safe".
But can he then pull out 90% of forces involved back to Russia and call it a day?
Doesn't look like it.
3/11

There has not been a major victory for Russian military nor Ukraine is depleted of resources.
Russians are slowly occupying Kherson and South East and showing no signs they would be ready to leave it.
So, can he minimize fighting at this point and avoid UA counterattack?
4/11

Can Putin actually stop fighting and even preserve what was already captured?
Even if we imagine Kremlin will be okay with being done with what was already taken, I doubt Kyiv will agree.
So, continued fighting is unavoidable.
5/11

So in a sense, Putin can declare a victory only to announce that now Russia will need to defend that victory - and seek yet new ways to get people excited about going to fight in Ukraine.
None of that would be enough to lift any of the sanctions
6/11

So Putin under no circumstance can declare any type of victory over the West.
By the end of the summer/in the fall - when Russia runs out of all the pre-war reserves and Russian manufactures go back to producing 1984 models of cars and equipment, some
7/11

additional explanation would be due.
Also, let's not forget that practically every single day there is a "fire" or clear cut attack on military and logistical objects in Russia.
People in Bryansk,Kursk and Belgorod will hardly get even the "victory over Donbas" at this point
8/11

Then of course, what do you do with Kadyrov, Volodin and every other Medvedev that demands taking the Phase 2 to the entire territory of Ukraine, taking Kyiv and all?
Sure, you can ask them to be quite - but once they figure out that Putin ends with a "victory over Donbas"
9/11

or in other words with political, military, diplomatic and economic defeat - how long do they stay the course and not look for "other options"?
Again, I'm speculating here a bit. But my point is that Putin got himself in a situation when he no longer has a plug.
10/11

He can't just say "we're done" and actually be done with it.
Again, he may proclaim Victory only to begin shooting back the very next day.
Syria was a universe away from Russia. This in not Syria
11/11