Thread by @panyiszabolcs

Worrying rumours circulate as Viktor Orbán is assembling his next government, which could be his most pro-Kremlin ever with multiple ministers having close Russian ties. Hungary's foreign policy, military, national security & cyber defense apparatus could all be affected. Thread.

2/ First, I want to emphasize that these are rumours and information originating from sources not in the PM's inner circle, but from the apparatus itself that could be affected. Some of these information are pretty new, others are floating around for quite some time now.

3/ Orbán himself confirmed that MFA Péter Szijjártó will stay in his cabinet. However, there are longtime rumours that he'd get a promotion/extra responsibilities either as deputy prime minister or by overseeing a bigger portfolio. He's also regarded as the PM's prospective heir.

4/ Szijjártó received the Order of Friendship, the highest 🇷🇺state award a foreigner can get from Putin, just 3 months before the invasion of Ukraine. Even though his ministry has been hacked inside-out by Russian intelligence, he never confronted Moscow. direkt36.hu/en/putyin-hekk…

5/ Antal Rogán has been PM Orbán's propaganda minister in charge of gov't advertisement campaigns and controlling the vast right-wing media empire.

Not a joke: he could soon oversee Hungarian counterintelligence, signals intelligence & cyber defense, according to some rumours.

6/ Rogán not only copypasted Kremlin-style propaganda into Hungarian pro-Orbán media, he actually imported Kremlin narratives that are still circulating both in state-run public media and seemingly privately owned but gov't controlled right-wing outlets. politico.eu/article/russia…

7/ Sources from Hungary's security apparatus have been talking for months about Rogán seizing control over security agencies as head of a possible new IT & cyber defense ministry. In this scenario, the ministry of interior would only oversee law enforcement (plus health care).

8/ Why is this important? Rogán's confidants have invented Hungary's golden visa scheme, which granted Hungarian residency permits and Schengen visas to Russian spy chief Sergey Naryshkin's family and to other Kremlin-connected politicians & businessmen. direkt36.hu/en/putyin-gepe…

9/ If Antal Rogán would get this new portfolio, he'd oversee the Constitution Protection Office (the Hungarian member of the Club de Berne intelligence sharing forum) as well as the Special Service for National Security (Hungary's NSA) in charge of surveillance & cyber defense.

10/ The latest and probably most explosive rumour is about businessman & former ambassador to London Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky getting some important role in Hungary's Ministry of Defense. Well, the guy has a joint venture with Russia's Transmashholding.
direkt36.hu/en/habony-kore…

11/ Transmashholding is a Russian state-owned company producing locomotives and rail cars, but it also has ties to the military. For example, the chassis of the Buk-M2 missile system was designed and produced by their subsidiary, Metrowagonmash. militaryleak.com/2019/12/27/rus…

12/ Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky made news recently when his company bought Aero Vodochody, a Czech manufacturer of light combat and training aircraft. His promotion to any MoD position would be also problematic because 🇭🇺 military contracted this company. budapesttimes.hu/corporate/hung…

13/ Despite the pro-Kremlin policies of Orbán's government, Hungary's military & Ministry of Defense have been seen as the last bastion of pro-NATO and anti-Russian groups. Letting a businessman with direct Russian ties like Szalay-Bobrovniczky run the show would be a huge deal.

14/ Again, I'd like to repeat that these are just rumours and scenarios. Nothing is final yet. Viktor Orbán alone decides about his ministries & cabinet members. The tendency, however, is pretty clear. It would be wishful thinking to expect any pro-Western shift from PM Orbán.

15/ It's also important to add that there's a lot of internal power struggle going on right now, especially between Minister of Interior Sándor Pintér and Antal Rogán.

I will update this thread as we get official news about Orbán's picks, promotions and final cabinet structure.

16/ Not an official confirmation yet, but @hvg_hu reports that Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky is a likely contender to become Hungary's next Minister of Defense.

Orbán also wants to get rid of all soldiers from the senior leadership of the MoD, HVG claims. hvg.hu/360/20220505_h…

17/ Official photos posted by Viktor Orbán confirm that Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky will be in his new cabinet. Current MoD Tibor Benkő is absent from these photos of Orbán's next cabinet, another strong hint that KSz-B gets the top job overseeing the army 444.hu/2022/05/11/orb…

18/ Meanwhile, a government source tells meg that current minister for propaganda Antal Rogán will not only oversee the counterintelligence and signal intelligence/cyber defense agencies, but also the powerful internal crime protection agency, the National Protective Service.