Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

The state of the war in two stories today. Keep your eyes on reinforcements, because that will determine the course of the next few months. Russia is taking old equipment out of storage to send to Ukraine. news.yahoo.com/russia-redeplo…

Ukraine is getting completely new systems, better than anything it had in the war. Ukraine now has 90 percent of the howitzers that were promised by the USA, some of which are already in action.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1521881555005812736?s=20&t=ZIlnPg4t8tcpnRqZ8vfeSA

If we step back and look at the trajectory of military power deployed in Ukraine there is one constant change. Ukraine is getting stronger in vital areas, getting more and in some cases much better equipment. Russia is getting weaker, and deploying weaker, less good equipment

Heavy artillery is maybe the best example. Ukraine had some at the start of the war, but it was considered to be significantly inferior to Russian artillery and lacking in some of the best types and without adequate counter battery radar. rusi.org/explore-our-re…

Even with losses, they will soon be much stronger than on February 24. As the above tweet shows they are already starting to deploy and will soon receive support from the US, Australia, France, Czechia, Holland, Estonia and Poland. For example see from this report

These descriptions come from this report. As it lays out, not only is Ukraine numerically getting stronger, they are getting some excellent systems such as the French Caesar and the Dutch Panzerhaubitze 2000 newlinesinstitute.org/ukraine/what-h…:

The Ukrainians are also getting some upgraded counter battery radar, including from the British. Summary, Ukraine will soon be fielding much more powerful, longer range, and more numerous artillery systems than it did on Feb 24.

Russia is getting weaker. We have excellent photographic confirmation of Russia having lost 59 towed artillery systems and 104 self-propelled systems. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

Real losses are much higher. Ukrainian claims to have destroyed 491 Russian artillery systems. Even if that is high, Russian artillery losses should can safely be calculated at well over 300 (halfway between Ukrainian claims and confirmed losses).

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1521754844725452800?s=20&t=ZIlnPg4t8tcpnRqZ8vfeSA

IOW, Russia has lost at least as many modern systems as Ukraine is going to receive from its allies. What is Russia reinforcing with--less good equipment from its own stocks. Its weaker in artillery and Ukraine is stronger

Situation in tanks is probably more extreme. Ukraine is almost certainly stronger now than at the start. Theyre in the process of receiving about 300 tanks from their allies, including approx 240 from Poland.

Theyve also captured so many workable Russian tanks, that estimates started to be made a few weeks ago that they now have more than Russia.

https://twitter.com/edwardstrngr/status/1520062153092259841?s=20&t=NBl_U_CoULJEyW860Buo2g

Russian tank losses, including some of their best, newest models, have been extreme, ranges between the 603 for which photographic proof exists and the 1077 Ukraine has claimed to destroyed. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

Splitting the difference between these two would be 840 Russian tanks destroyed. That is a catastrophic rate, equivalent to the component of 84 full strengh BTGs (remember Russia invaded with about 130 BTGs). What are the Russians making up these losses with--old stuff in storage

This kind of wastage difference, Ukraine becoming stronger and Russia weaker, stretches to other areas--UAVs (Ukraine getting switchblades, etc) Anti-Ship missiles, hand-held missiles, etc.

It could even be the case in soldiers. Ukraine has been reinforced by a few tens of thousands of foreign volunteers. Ive seen estimates of 20k-30k. cepa.org/too-late-for-r…

These include some special force veterans from some of the best trained militaries in the world. Such as these Israeli SF soldiers that arrived the other day.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1520489414006165504?s=20&t=NBl_U_CoULJEyW860Buo2g

We dont have a great estimate of Ukrainian casualties--but somewhere around 15-20k is probably not a bad estimate. Ukrainian government is saying 13k killed and wounded, so add 50% if you want. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie…

Russian forces in Ukraine--definitely smaller than Feb 24. Number of BTGs down from 130 to 93. thats a 30% reduction in BTG numbers--but active soldiers are probably even higher than this. So Ukraine might have more soldiers or the same as Feb 24, Russia much weaker.

Thats why Russia will have to act soon to start changing this trajectory. Across the board they are weaker than Feb 24 and Ukraine is getting stronger.

Ukrainian Foreign Secretary @DmytroKuleba acknowledging tonight the value of getting all the new equipment from outside.

https://twitter.com/dmytrokuleba/status/1521960277092278272