Footage from Mariinka in eastern Ukraine shows an incendiary attack today by Russia against this town of 10,000 people. Although it's being described as a phosphorus attack, it's actually something a lot worse and yet another war crime. A 🧵 to explain. /1
This is not phosphorus; it's thermite, a pyrotechnic composition of metal powder and metal oxide. It burns at up to 3,500°C. It can't be smothered and can't easily be extinguished by water - it can even be used for underwater welding. It can ignite in any environment. /2
It's been used in incendiary bombs since WW2. The Germans pioneered its use against British cities such as Coventry, while the Allies used thermite bombs to raze cities in Germany and Japan (Braunschweig pictured here), killing hundreds of thousands. /3
This was hugely controversial even at the time, and the use of napalm by the US in Vietnam caused further controversy. In 1980 an international protocol was agreed to prohibit the use of air-dropped incendiaries against civilian targets. It entered force in 1983. /4
There is a loophole though - ground-delivered incendiary weapons are permitted if a military target is "is clearly separated from the concentration of civilians and all feasible precautions are taken" to avoid harming civilians and civilian objects. /5
This is what Russia uses to deliver incendiaries: the 9M22S rocket, launched from BM-21 Grad truck-mounted multiple rocket launcher systems. Up to 40 can be fired in a salvo to a range of 20 km (12 miles). It's a notoriously inaccurate and indiscriminate weapon. /6
Each rocket contains 180 hexagonal incendiary elements made of magnesium, packed with thermite and arranged in a matrix within the rocket. Each element is 40 mm long and 25 mm wide. A linear charge ejects them from the rocket and ignites them, to burn for about 2 minutes. /7
This weapon was developed in Russia in 1971 with the objective of igniting fires in areas such as fuel depots, ammunition storage sites, and other flammable military targets. It was also intended to be used against enemy troop concentrations. /8
Russia has used them repeatedly in Syria and Ukraine. In many cases, as apparently today in Mariinka, they've been used indiscrimately against populated places - a clear war crime. This is what it looks like on the receiving end. /9
The effect on the target can be devastating. Thermite burns hot enough to melt steel. It destroys structures and causes "excruciating burns, sometimes to the bone, ... respiratory damage, infection, shock, and organ failure" (Human Rights Watch). /10
Human Rights Watch and other campaign groups have been pressing for years for such weapons to be banned outright. Unfortunately and unsurprisingly, Russia has opposed this, and has continued to use incendiary weapons ruthlessly in its wars. /end
Used against Mariupol's Azovstal plant, reportedly on 14 May - this is the clearest view I've seen of 9M22S thermite submunitions being deployed.
It's worth noting that despite their horrific effect, this is currently allowed by the laws of war as long as it's against a purely military target (as Azovstal appears to be now that civilians have been evacuated).
Read more about Human Rights Watch's campaign to ban these weapons here: hrw.org/topic/arms/inc…
Video from the Russian side of a thermite incendiary attack being carried out against a Ukrainian position:
1/ Russia has "shot itself in the dick" with its block on Telegram, according to a scathing commentary. A Russian warblogger notes that pro-Kremlin propagandists have seen huge falls in views of their Telegram channels, but not dissident and pro-Ukraine channels. ⬇️
2/ Komsomolskaya Pravda journalist Dmitry Steshin calls it "a day of celebration for foreign agents, as the audience for pro-Russian channels on Telegram has plummeted."
3/ "Margarita Simonyan saw a 52.3% drop, while propagandist Alexander Sladkov saw a 49.4% drop. Views for ‘RT in Russian’ fell by 42%, whilst those for propagandists Vladimir Solovyov and Pavel Zarubin fell by 47.2% and 42.7% respectively.
1/ In a further sign of an economic slump in Russia, the giant vehicle manufacturer AvtoVAZ will shut down production entirely for 17 days due to falling demand and overcrowded warehouses. Its vehicles aren't selling and storage facilities are overflowing. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet Mash reports that AvtoVAZ will shut down its assembly lines for almost the entire period from 27 April to 17 May, with the workforce sent on mandatory leave.
3/ Workers will be sent to do maintenance work between 27-30 April, 12-13 May will be covered by a postponement of vacation days from December, and staff will be paid at two-thirds their normal salary on 14-15 May.
1/ Brutally murdering women in front of their children has effectively been legalised in Russia, due to the Russian government's policy of allowing pre-trial detainees to go to Ukraine to fight rather than facing justice. A horrific case from Voronezh highlights the problem. ⬇️
2/ Madina Nikolaevna Mironenko, a 42-year-old soldier's widow and mother of four children, was dragged out of her house by her hair and stabbed to death by a masked neighbour, in front of her nine-year-old daughter. Another neighbour witnessed the attack and recognised the man.
3/ A group of soldiers' relatives in Voronezh has written an open letter to the authorities:
"There are 220 of us (each of us can write to you personally if necessary), we are relatives of those who, at the call and behest of their hearts,…
1/ The late governor of Russia's Kursk region, Roman Starovoit, is said to have received huge cash bribes in grocery bags of food and alcohol, and stole 100 million rubles ($1.2 million) from the budget assigned to build fortifications along the border with Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Starovoit, who shot himself on 7 July 2025 shortly before he was due to be charged for fraud, has been the subject of testimony given by Alexey Smirnov, his also-indicted deputy and successor. Smirnov says that he and his own deputy also took bribes.
3/ The fortifications were swept aside with ease by Ukrainian forces when they invaded the Kursk region in August 2024. Subsequent Russian investigations found that much of the money allocated to the defences had been stolen.
1/ Austria has become the latest European country to ban US military overflights related to the Iran war. The country's Defence Ministry has announced that it has refused "several" requests from the US government, citing Austria's Neutrality Law.
2/ A statement issued by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence says that it will not let the US use its airspace for military operations against Iran. Individual requests for overflights are being reviewed in consultation with the Austrian Foreign Ministry.
3/ According to Colonel Michael Bauer, "There have indeed been requests and they were refused from the outset". He adds that every time a similar request "involves a country at war, it is refused."
1/ Global oil and gas shortages are likely to persist for months, industry insiders are warning. This is due to shut-in, or idled, wells suffering progressive damage that is becoming increasingly severe as the Iran war drags on, leading to long delays in restarting production. ⬇️
2/ Wells manage the release of oil and gas that is under great pressure from underground reservoirs. While they are designed to throttle flow up and down as required and can be shut in for short periods for maintenance, they are not designed for indefinite shut-ins.
3/ Shut-ins put stress on the well structure, the machinery, and the reservoir itself. The effects include:
♦️ Casing and cement degradation: Wells are designed for active production, where fluid movement helps maintain pressure equilibrium.