Footage from Mariinka in eastern Ukraine shows an incendiary attack today by Russia against this town of 10,000 people. Although it's being described as a phosphorus attack, it's actually something a lot worse and yet another war crime. A 🧵 to explain. /1
This is not phosphorus; it's thermite, a pyrotechnic composition of metal powder and metal oxide. It burns at up to 3,500°C. It can't be smothered and can't easily be extinguished by water - it can even be used for underwater welding. It can ignite in any environment. /2
It's been used in incendiary bombs since WW2. The Germans pioneered its use against British cities such as Coventry, while the Allies used thermite bombs to raze cities in Germany and Japan (Braunschweig pictured here), killing hundreds of thousands. /3
This was hugely controversial even at the time, and the use of napalm by the US in Vietnam caused further controversy. In 1980 an international protocol was agreed to prohibit the use of air-dropped incendiaries against civilian targets. It entered force in 1983. /4
There is a loophole though - ground-delivered incendiary weapons are permitted if a military target is "is clearly separated from the concentration of civilians and all feasible precautions are taken" to avoid harming civilians and civilian objects. /5
This is what Russia uses to deliver incendiaries: the 9M22S rocket, launched from BM-21 Grad truck-mounted multiple rocket launcher systems. Up to 40 can be fired in a salvo to a range of 20 km (12 miles). It's a notoriously inaccurate and indiscriminate weapon. /6
Each rocket contains 180 hexagonal incendiary elements made of magnesium, packed with thermite and arranged in a matrix within the rocket. Each element is 40 mm long and 25 mm wide. A linear charge ejects them from the rocket and ignites them, to burn for about 2 minutes. /7
This weapon was developed in Russia in 1971 with the objective of igniting fires in areas such as fuel depots, ammunition storage sites, and other flammable military targets. It was also intended to be used against enemy troop concentrations. /8
Russia has used them repeatedly in Syria and Ukraine. In many cases, as apparently today in Mariinka, they've been used indiscrimately against populated places - a clear war crime. This is what it looks like on the receiving end. /9
The effect on the target can be devastating. Thermite burns hot enough to melt steel. It destroys structures and causes "excruciating burns, sometimes to the bone, ... respiratory damage, infection, shock, and organ failure" (Human Rights Watch). /10
Human Rights Watch and other campaign groups have been pressing for years for such weapons to be banned outright. Unfortunately and unsurprisingly, Russia has opposed this, and has continued to use incendiary weapons ruthlessly in its wars. /end
Used against Mariupol's Azovstal plant, reportedly on 14 May - this is the clearest view I've seen of 9M22S thermite submunitions being deployed.
It's worth noting that despite their horrific effect, this is currently allowed by the laws of war as long as it's against a purely military target (as Azovstal appears to be now that civilians have been evacuated).
Read more about Human Rights Watch's campaign to ban these weapons here: hrw.org/topic/arms/inc…
Video from the Russian side of a thermite incendiary attack being carried out against a Ukrainian position:
1/ Russia's anti-drone defences are said to be severely hampered by bureaucracy, such as bans on interceptor drones with explosive warheads, and legal liability, which makes mobile fire teams liable for damage caused by shot-down enemy drones. ⬇️
2/ Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev looks for answers to the eternal question of "where air defence?". He highlights legal and bureaucratic obstacles that he says are major obstacles to the effective protection of facilities that are being targeted by Ukrainian drones:
3/ "A few thoughts on counter-drone defence of rear-area facilities.
1. The very fact that we have legally limited the ability to use explosives to combat drones in the rear leads to an increase, not a decrease, in collateral losses.
1/ The Poseidon intercontinental nuclear torpedo is a very stupid idea, says Russian writer and blogger Maxim Kalashnikov. He lambasts it as a huge waste of Russia's resources which is likely to be highly vulnerable to interception and wholly ineffective in practice. ⬇️
2/ Recent reports that the much-hyped Poseidon will soon be undergoing sea trials on a purpose-built carrier submarine have attracted a scathing response from Kalashnikov. He bluntly dismisses it as a very expensive and militarily pointless propaganda exercise:
3/ "I look upon the cult of the “Poseidon” torpedo with disdain. Is it aimed at complete idiots whose minds have been shaped by Hollywood and who’ve forgotten their high school physics? Or at impressionable retirees?
1/ Russia's shrunken Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9th May has been a TV ratings flop, reflecting a lack of public interest and its exceptionally short duration. Russian broadcasters report 25% fewer people tuning in this year. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet 'We can explain' reports that the combined rating for the Victory Day Parade broadcast across the three main broadcasters (Channel One, Rossiya 1, and NTV) this year was only 16%. This is a near-25% drop from the 20.5% rating recorded in 2025.
3/ The parade was overtaken in the ratings by the wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. 'We can explain' suggests that this "may be due to the show's shortening and watering down."
1/ Russian warbloggers are mystified and angry at a recruitment advert for the Russian army posted on the Facebook-like social network VK. Unlike the usual ads, which show Russian soldiers as muscular supermen, it's attracting attention for being a lot more realistic. ⬇️
2/ Sergei Moskalkov, who spotted the advert, declares angrily:
"This isn't a fake, not a disinformation-like collage, but a genuine advertisement for contract service in the Russian Armed Forces.
This is a VK ad.
#fifthcolumn
#lawlessness"
3/ Lev Vershinin suggests a return to the classics:
"Since Sergei Moskalkov never lies and isn't particularly prone to jokes, I'll take it on faith."
1/ Russian propagandists see their anti-Ukrainian conspiracy theories about secret bioweapons being vindicated by the news that the Trump Administration is to probe previous US Administrations' funding of biological research laboratories worldwide. ⬇️
2/ Since 2022, the Russians have promoted claims that the US was operating dozens of secret laboratories in Ukraine to research bioweapons, including novel diseases and so-called "combat mosquitos". Propagandists claimed that Ukraine was under US "military biological occupation".
3/ These claims build on older Russian/Soviet-era disinformation patterns, extending back decades, about US bioweapons programmes. As long ago as the 1950s, the Soviets falsely claimed US germ warfare in Korea, and more recently claimed that the US created AIDS.
1/ Ukraine is reportedly using large 'drone carrier' unmanned surface vessels (USVs), each carrying between six to eight FPV drones as well as themobaric rockets, to attack multiple targets on the strategic Kinburn Peninsula in Crimea. ⬇️
2/ The Russian Telegram channel 'Archangel of Special Forces' posts footage apparently taken by a Russian UAV of what it says is a Ukrainian USV off Kinburn. According to the channel, the Ukrainians have been launching an increasing number of attacks against Russian positions:
3/ "The footage shows one of two unmanned Ukrainian Armed Forces boats launched today from the Southern Bug River basin. The port of Mykolaiv was likely the launch site, given the size of the USV. The waters of the Southern Bug have not been used for a long time.