Fascinating 🧵👇:

The narrative that NATO training is the main cause for Ukraine's mil. performance says perhaps more about our own perceptions of the (inflated) military value of special operations forces (where a lot of training efforts went into) than broader mil. reality.
US/NATO training certainly is playing an important role in many ways. E.g., I do think mission command executed by more junior officers the first couple of days of the war played a very important role at the tactical level in coordinating tactical retreats/overall defense.
One reason why some analysts (including myself) underestimated the combat effectiveness of the UAF is what @Jack_Watling points out re. NCO corps: the UAF were in the middle of substantial & incomplete mil. reforms usually...
...not a good position to be in when fighting a major military power even when your force has substantial combat experience.
*Our inflated perceptions of the military value of special operations forces relative to regular forces.

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More from @HoansSolo

May 3
Taiwan faces delays in U.S. arms deliveries due to Ukraine war asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter…
"Taiwan is supposed to receive 250 Stinger surface-to-air missiles in phased shipments by March 2026. But 'there is certainly a risk of a delay in this year's deliveries due to changes in the international situation,' a 🇹🇼Ministry of National Defense official told reporters."
The ministry reported a similar holdup...for M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers. The island was to receive 40 of the artillery units between 2023 & 2025, but 🇺🇸 informed 🇹🇼 that delivery will be postponed to 2026 at the earliest due to "tight" production in the US.
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Stimme Mike zu. Ohne Mobilisierung der Reserven wird dies die letzte russische Offensive sein. Ich habe darauf selbst schon mehrmals hingewiesen.🧵👇
Z.b. “With current casualty and major equipment loss rates continuing, my guess is that Russia will not have the ability to take this fight into June,” habe ich @joshuakeating letzte Woche erklärt.
grid.news/story/global/2…
“If the war goes on with casualty rates similar to the first weeks of the war, Russia will need a longer operational pause in June and July, while reserves are being mobilized and additional reservists called up."

Diese Gefechtspause kann/muss die Ukraine militärisch nutzen.
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Apr 22
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map: @War_Mapper
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map: @Militarylandnet
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- no major changes otherwise AFAIK.

map: @War_Mapper
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Zur militärischen Sinnhaftigkeit von der Lieferung schwerer Waffen an die Ukraine:

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Apr 21
Quick update on the military situation in Ukraine (Donbas) on April 21:

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Apr 20
Quick update on the military situation in Ukraine (Donbas) on April 20:

- 🇷🇺 long-range fires & probing attacks continue
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map: @War_Mapper
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Note:
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map: @Militarylandnet
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