Thread by @CoppetainPU

Some thoughts on the Jun 12-15 slimline WTO Ministerial Conference #DietMC12

The biggest challenge: persuading ministers it’s worth travelling to Geneva in the first place

What does “slimline” entail?

• Most decisions taken before the meeting—ministers just endorse them

1/10

https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/1521888799705518081

• Those decisions will be more technical (eg extending duty-free e-commerce) than political.

• Big political decisions are unlikely before or during the conference anyway (agriculture, even fisheries subsidies, reforming dispute settlement)

2/10 wto.org/english/thewto…

• Ministers would not negotiate anything, except maybe final touches to almost-agreed non-binding packages: responses to the pandemic, food security.

• Or a decision to exempt the World Food Programme from export restrictions (only India and Tanzania holding out)

3/10

• Plenary speeches (which no one listens to anyway) will be pre-recorded videos. The by-product is one more meeting room freed up

• The meeting will not be “hybrid”. No online participation, although passive online observation might be arranged.

4/10

https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/1521888805745303557?s=20&t=_Cf6Ozg6-EfdviGTOt7khQ

What are the implications of this #DietMC12? What are the incentives for ministers from all/most of the 164 members to attend?

In past conferences, large numbers of ministers sat around waiting for a handful of them to settle major differences.

5/10 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…

So, ironically, if ministers are not asked to negotiate, that might encourage them to attend the #MC12 conference.

But if they are just there to rubber-stamp what their ambassadors have agreed, that might not be an incentive either.

There are two related possibilities:

6/10

• The Ministerial Conference is the WTO’s top decision-making body. It’s supposed to meet every two years. It last met almost five years ago (2017). That alone might be an incentive to attend, particularly when the WTO faces so many problems.

7/10 wto.org/english/thewto…

• This conference could be an opportunity for ministers to meet and exchange views.

One idea that’s been suggested: include discussion sessions. It’s been done before. But if over 100 ministers want to speak, we end up with informal plenaries, each given 3-minute slots

8/10

So, some smaller sessions in parallel—in break-out groups on specific topics (unblocking supply chains, dispute settlement, improving transparency, other aspects of WTO reform) or more generally—might allow proper interactions without forcing delegations to hang around idly

9/10

This Ministerial Conference should be an opportunity for political leaders in trade to familiarise themselves with the issues and other countries’ concerns.

Besides, when major players want to ostracise one member (Russia) consensus decisions become even less feasible.

10/10