Thread by @Nrg8000

Putin's War - The Ukraine Briefing on May 5th
THREAD
Today Ukraine announced that it was launching the 2nd, offensive phase of its war with Russia, after claiming Russian forces have 'stalled' in their own offensive moves.
Let's look at both parts of this statement.

First, we need to look at the area surrounding Kharkiv. In recent days, Russian forces have withdrawn from large areas to the West of the Donets River, blowing up bridges behind their retreat.
The main road bridge across the Donets was blown up around May 3rd, east of Rubizhne.

Russian troops also appear to have withdrawn from Ruski Tyshky, although this is not fully confirmed.

There have also reportedly been Ukrainian offensives around Izyum and Kherson in recent days, although no details can be confirmed. In Izyum, satellite imagery shows that Ukrainian forces crossed the Donets River, with offensive actions continuing despite strikes, by all reports.

In Kherson, a small number of villages have also reportedly been recaptured by Ukrainian troops in the past few days. The villages have not been named, and therefore cannot be mapped, but official statements claimed fighting was occurring in the vicinity of Tomyna Balka.

In recent days, Russian forces have also been able to take limited territory from Ukrainian troops as well. Although I would suggest these settlements are far more minor. Namely, Russian troops have advanced near Niu York and near Nyzhnie, also through the forest near Studenok.

More broadly we can look at the situation around Karhkiv and Izyum over the past fortnight (since April 21st). These are the most active frontlines, where a solid plurality of effort is being focused. Russia has advanced to varying degrees along 4 axis:

- From Kreminna Russia has advanced to the outskirts of Lyman and partially captured Yampil over the past 2 weeks and captured Zarichne (around 30km).
- From Borova Russia has advanced around 25km capturing Lozove and a number of other smaller towns.

Along this Borova axis, Russia has also occupied a large number (15-20) villages that were previously in no-man's land.

These are not insignificant gains. Zarichne is a relatively large town and more importantly, it seems that Russia has been able to cut the main rail access to Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk between Lyman and Yampil.

But crucially, these two axes seem to be mostly irrelevant to Ukrainian strategic decision-making. They are both on the Northern side of the Donets River - a clear and strategic natural defensive line that Ukrainian strategy has been falling back to slowly for weeks.

Russian advances along these two axes have been opposed, but not seriously contested, with most Ukrainian forces falling back under pressure while trying to inflict heavy damage on the attacking forces through artillery and ambushes.
This is a stark contrast to other areas.

The two axes of attack south of the Donets river follow a very different path, with Russian troops only capturing three small villages in two weeks, and advancing 6-7km along the axes:
1) Towards Barvinkove;
2) Towards Velyka Komyshuvakha.

Russian forces around Izyum are by far the most concentrated in Ukraine, with approximately 22 BTGs occupying the area, nominally around 19,000 troops (though actual numbers could be significantly less).

https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1521529499296350209

Despite this, there is almost no progress here.

Additionally, in the last week, there has been zero progress of Russian troops along these two axes.

There have also been very few advances by Russian troops in other areas of Ukraine. Nothing remotely strategic beyond the storming of unoccupied pockets in Mariupol. Kherson has seen a regular back-and-forth of control. Other frontlines around the southern steppe are static.

This is why, I believe, the Ukrainian high command is referring to 'stalled' offensive action by Russian troops. This is what @KofmanMichael and others have been predicting would occur for several weeks since the heavy losses Russian forces were taking became apparent.

This, coupled with the delivery of several significant weapons systems to Ukrainian troops, also might be why Ukraine feels confident shifting to an offensive posture across the country. It has already seen significant success in the vicinity of Kharkiv.

Whether the same will happen in other theatres across the country remains to be seen. The biggest question mark is the extent of losses among Ukraine's more elite units that have been fighting for 70 days now.

My predictions of the future aren't particularly insightful, there are many other specialists of the Russian military who can speak to this with far more authority. What I can say now is that the strategic victories attainable to Russia at this point appear VERY limited.

And that I would much rather be in the room with the Ukrainian high command than with the Russian high command.

Oh, and a full map of Ukraine for all the people in the back.