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May 6 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
A reminder that Matt Isbell argued in 2015 that #FL5 was an illegal gerrymander that would not aid the interests of Black voters. Now, of course, he's arguing exactly the opposite because the district would help his party instead of hurting it.

He's hoping you won't notice that.
Matt's arguments back then were designed to save a white Democrat, Gwen Graham, who held a version of #FL2 roughly identical to what Florida R's just enacted.

Because Dems can no longer win that #FL2, Matt has forgotten all of the concerns he raised in 2015.
Of course, when we forecasted back in January everything that has since happened in FL redistricting, Matt brushed off our analysis as hackery.

This is where we remind you we're volunteers, and Matt is supposed to understand FL politics for a living.

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More from @RRHElections

RRH Elections Profile picture
May 3
Neither #NYGov Kathy Hochul (D-Buffalo) nor her potential Lt Governor running mate Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) are from New York City. The last time New York elected a Governor and Lt Governor entirely from Upstate New York was 1910.
*This assumes that Thomas Dewey is more associated with Manhattan, where he was District Attorney, than Pawling, NY, where he lived later in life.

The elected 1911-12 Gov/LG combo was Gov John Alden Dix of Glens Falls and LG Thomas Conway of Plattsburgh.
The last time NY had an Upstate Gov & LG was in the month of December 1942, when Gov Charles Poletti from Elizabethtown ascended to the office when then-Gov Herbert Lehman took a post in the wartime federal government. His acting LG, Joe Hanley, was from Perry, NY.
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
May 1
Lots to unpack here: Joe Manchin (D) cuts an ad for David McKinley (R), defending McKinley against allegations that he supported the BBB bill that Manchin killed. McKinley/Manchin supported the smaller infrastructure bill, which Alex Mooney (R) opposed. thehill.com/news/campaign/…
McKinley and Mooney are facing off in a member-v-member primary in #WV2. WV is perhaps the only state where an R would ever tout support from a Dem--even a popular one like Manchin--in a semi-closed primary.
And separate from #WV2, we can't imagine many Dems are thrilled to see Manchin taking a victory lap in a GOP ad, boasting about killing Biden's signature legislation as their window to pass anything resembling progressive legislation continues to slam shut!
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Apr 27
The New York State Court of Appeals has thrown out New York's Congressional and State Senate maps for 2022. Both maps will be drawn by a special master, not the legislature. The decision was likely 4-3.
RIP Hochulmander! We hardly knew ya.
Also: major props to @Redistrict for forecasting the key battles of April back in January. Hochul loses in court, and DeSantis won in his legislature and is a solid favorite in court. Assuming his map holds, the GOP has won the 20’s redistricting cycle.
Read 6 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Apr 25
Quick thread on Kansas ruling and what may come next:

1. Trial judge found that the map was both a political and racial gerrymander. The judge is an elected D in one of the state’s two liberal counties, so this was reasonably expected.
2. The racial gerrymandering claim is absurd under modern federal law and won’t get anywhere. But the majority-Dem Kansas Supreme Court may decide to throw out the map on the political gerrymandering claim alone.
3. Unlike in other states where a court has tossed out a map, there’s a serious procedural question about whether Kansas courts even have jurisdiction to hear redistricting challenges. Expect R’s to press that on appeal.
Read 5 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Apr 13
Without even getting into legal arguments, this is factually wrong on at least three counts.

First, the new #FL10 and the old #FL10 are both 28% Black. There is no change to Black voting strength in Orlando's seat, as anyone who bothered to check DRA before tweeting would notice
Second, the new #FL14 in Tampa/St. Pete has a higher Black % than either the old #FL13 or the old #FL14. The old seats were likely to elect one white D and one white D or R. The new #FL14 offers a better chance for a Black rep to be elected from TB, at the expense of white D's.
Third, the split of the Black vote in St. Pete was likely done for compactness, and actually hurts R's! DeSantis's #FL14 (left) leaves out some AA precincts in St. Pete. Adding them (right) in makes the seat less compact, but more AA, and also makes #FL13 and #FL15 each redder.
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Mar 3
A judge has ordered that the challenge to NY’s maps will go forward. Per @cinyc9, who attended today’s hearing, NY is likely to use its leg.-drawn map this year. The judge may order new elections if he strikes down the map, or changes could wait for ‘24. Decision next month.
Judge Patrick McAllister, who is presiding over the case, ordered discovery and denied Democrats’ motions to dismiss. Experts will testify on March 14.
Judge McAllister denied #NYGov Kathy Hochul's motion to be removed from the case and said she is a necessary party to the lawsuit.
Read 4 tweets

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