Thread by @TheShipYard2

🇷🇺Analysis🇷🇺
This morning it was claimed that the Russian Frigate #AdmiralMakarov was hit by some form of weaponry.

Looking at the Satellite imagery and pictures form the base, One #GrigorovichFFGH is at sea, however, based off SAR imagery off Snake Island (Claimed Loc)..

only MERCHANT VESSELS at anchor, in addition to the Rigs that are to the East and North East of the island are visible in the SAR imagery.
This image (Image 1) was taken at 0405Z, and throughout the whole coverage recorded this morning, No frigate sized unit is visible..

There is a possibility she was operating off Sevastopol and made a transit over to snake island for a LACM strike, which at 14knots, would take 10 hours.

If she was operating off the South Coast of Snake Island, she would be well within range of Neptune..

Imagery from Ukrainian reports from the last couple of hours have been showing imagery of large plumes of smoke off the coast. These were assessed to be the oil rigs discharging. Most likely trigger happy on lookers mis understanding the situation...

My overall assessment.

At this time, I believe it is highly unlikely that the Admiral Makarov was hit off the coast of Snake island. As she is missing from IMINT alongside, and the dense cloud cover from yesterday restricts visual identification of vessels at sea off Crimea...

I believe she is operating off the coast of Sevastopol and up to Donzulav Lake.

Positioning a high value unit like a Grigorovich within the Kill line of Neptune without a second unit capable of air defence, like her Essen, does not make strategic sense. ...

Submarines firing Kalibr is fine to act alone due to not being able to be hit by Kalibr as they can fire submerged. And they have been doing this in the wake of the Moskva Incident.

Putting a frigate, in the open, is not a tactical move, it is a move where you loose a vessel...

and I assess the Black Sea Fleet isn't going to risk it after Moskva.

End of Analysis and Assessment

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Sorry that should be “not be able to be hit by AShM”