Thread by @DadBodFS

Let’s look at one of fantasy football’s age old questions: Should my first pick be a WR or a RB? We have dug into the data for the past 11 seasons (2011-2021) to see where the player ranks within their position vs. their ADP. #fantasyfootball #NFL #fantasydraft

In this data we are going to separate players by each round (combining round 5-6 and combining 7th round through undrafted) and we are going to break this up in 3 categories – Top 5, Top 12, and Top 24 at their respective position. #fantasyfootball #nfl #fantasydraft

Before I present this data, I want to make sure to cover a few things. Using round 1 as an example, we have seen 85 RBs go in the last 11 years. As you can see in the table below, 30 have gone in the top 5, 47 in the top 12 and 61 in the top 24.

This is obviously larger than 85 total RBs and that’s because top 24 encompasses top 12 and top 5 and Top 12 encompasses the top 5 guys.

This report is largely looking at RB/WR data. Outside of overcomplicating the data presented with multiple position groups: This data shows all the RBs and WRs drafted in each round vs. how many of them land in a top 5, top 12, or top 24 positional rank:

So, how should you draft, RB – RB, WR – WR, WR – RB, RB – WR? How you handle your first two picks is also typically a determining factor on what you do in rounds 3-6.
Before we answer that, here is some data to help put fantasy points into perspective.
#fantasyfootball #nfl

Here is the average from each positional group (2011-2021) in their respective categories. Unlike the rest of this thread, I got this average by taking the top 1-5 of the position, the top 6-12 of the position, and the top 13-24 of the position and averaged it.

From our points averages above, a top 5 RB is our goal, and the answer is RB-RB. Let’s look closer and tell you why.

Clearly, a top 5 WR vs. a top 5 RB are suprisingly close. What we do notice with each category above is that WR is averaging much higher. Not only that, but we see how much of a gap is between the top 5 RB compared to a top 24 RB.

This should mean that landing a top 5 RB is our main priority. We also notice that RB 13-24 is our weakest category, and we want to try to avoid this at all costs.

The average drop-off from the top 5 RBs to RB6-12 is 80 points. It is about 130 pts from a top 5 RB to RB13-24. Interestingly RB6-12 averages only 18 more points than WR13-24.

After round 2, your chances of drafting a top 5 RB drops drastically from 21% to 3%. Your chances of drafting a top 12 RB drops from 47% to 25%. These are the rounds to snag WRs.

In all four rounds, you have a better chance of landing a top 5, top 12, or top 24 WR than you would if you were drafting an RB here. Yes, you can say the same thing about round 1, but the drop-off for RB is much steeper as shown in this data. #fantasyfootball #nfl #fantasydraft

In rd 3, you have a 13% chance to land a top 5 WR compared to a 3% chance at a top 5 RB, and a 38% chance to land a top 12 WR compared to a 25% chance to land a top 12 RB. As noted above, a top 12 WR averages about 30 more points than a top 12 RB and 75 more pts than a RB13-24.

We want our best chances at landing a top tier RB in rds 1-2 because the stronger opportunity of landing a top 12 WR in rds 3 and 4 which presents higher fantasy points than RB 6-24. And again, even if we land a WR13-24 that is still only an 18 pt difference from RB 6-12.

As always, be fluid in your draft selection. Some guys will drop so far that it makes sense to take them where they are at - value is important!! This just gives you an outline of how we will be approaching our drafts this season.

An interesting note: RBs in rds 7 through undrafted have slightly higher success rate than our WRs. My speculation is that this is largely where handcuffs are drafted or picked up in FA.

The probability of success is much larger for an RB coming into a full role - compared to a WR who is competing with targets from a TE and other WRs.

Please like and follow if you like data like this! Always willing to take suggestions to look into more data regarding anything you’re looking for. #fantasyfootball #nfl #fantasydraft #RB #WR