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Nathan Ruser Profile picture
@Nrg8000
May 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Several days ago Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv launched a counter-offensive towards the strategic city of Izyum. Satellite imagery from Yesterday shows dozens of fires (likely from shelling) approaching Izyum from the west. The closest is 600m from the city. apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo… ImageImage
Both Yesterday and the day before lower resolution satellite imagery showed fighting closer to the city, and I've been mapping it accordingly, but I'm still shocked at the apparent ferocity of the fighting around Izyum and how close it has gotten to the city.
What is also interesting is that these fires are not just to the West of Izyum but also to the East, suggesting Ukraine is pushing from multiple directions. ImageImage
Also, note there's no evidence of any bridgehead under firm Ukrainian control, so there's no 'blue' on my map in the areas with fighting. This is because the units there are likely highly mobile, ambush and harassment units. However, I assess that Russia has lost firm control.

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More from @Nrg8000

Nathan Ruser Profile picture
Jul 25
🧵A detailed timeline on escalations in the lead-up to yesterday's clashes between Thailand and Cambodia.
Much of the escalation seems to stem from Cambodia, with their troops fortifying many sectors before the May 28 clashes and surging strategic assets immediately after.
🗺️ - heatmap of Cambodian military developments prior to July 24th.Image
2025-02-13. The immediate tensions seem to originate from an incident on February 13, when a group of Cambodian soldiers escorted civilians to visit an ancient temple. The group reportedly sang the Cambodian national anthem and was later stopped by Thai security officials. Image
2025-02-17. Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai expressed concern over the recent provocative incident involving Cambodian troops in Ta Muen Thom, stating that he does not want the incident to escalate into a conflict.
Read 49 tweets
Nathan Ruser Profile picture
Jun 10
The craziest thing is that the LA protests are remarkably normal, dare I say pedestrian. Theres no significant or widespread destruction, barely any meaningful resistance to law enforcement.

It's so transparently obvious that the Trump admin wants to fabricate a crisis.
There is absolutely zero tactical or strategic need for any federal support to control what we've seen this weekend. Yet the admin has been able to completely dominate and distort the conversation with barely any pushback from the democratic establishment or even the media.
By the way, when I say 'barely any meaningful resistance' I don't mean no skirmishes, I mean that at NO point have the police not been able to quickly and effectively perform whatever crowd control action they deem necessary.
Which is absolutely credit to the protesters.
Read 12 tweets
Nathan Ruser Profile picture
May 7
🧵Geolocations of ALL sites that the Indian Army has claimed to have hit in Pakistan and Kashmir.
1. Masjid Syedna Bilal/Hazrat Bilal
34.385846°N 73.456974°E
It appears to have been a direct hit, according to after-strike ground photos.
google.com/maps/place/34%…Image
Image
2. Reported training camp in Gulpur, Kotli
33.402328°N 73.876957°E
No post-strike imagery yet.
google.com/maps/place/33%…Image
3. Masjid Ahl-e-Hadis in Barnala, Bhimber.
32.867802°N 74.256469°E

Quadcopter-dropped munition appear to miss the target building and strike a courtyard around 50m away. google.com/maps/place/32%…Image
Image
Read 14 tweets
Nathan Ruser Profile picture
Mar 8
There's a horrendous amount of violence happening over the past few days in Syria, and a tremendous amount of uncertainty in numbers, details & actors. Yet it's astounding just how few people (including mainstream journalists) are engaging with these incidents in any good faith.
So many people are visibly giddy at the idea that the new Syrian government is committing atrocities. And as a result, absolutely misrepresenting the violence that is occurring. It's pulling in the pro-SDF crowd (biji!biji!) the Assadist crowd (counter-revolution!), the pro-Israel crowd (only the IDF can protect minorities!), the idiot Westerners (Assad was the thin blue line!) and even mainstream journalism (finally some spice to report).

And as a result, its the most counter-productive information environment I've seen around Syria since the chemical attack information ops.
It's imperative we find the details of these atrocities, who is involved and hold them accountable. It's crucial this is prevented from becoming a wider sectarian conflict.
And it's wild that most reporting and commentary is acting as a barrier to this, not a help.
Read 4 tweets
Nathan Ruser Profile picture
Dec 11, 2024
🧵Look towards the light.
As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed.
Read my analysis here
& read onaspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at-t…Image
Image
There are three pillars to why the Regime collapsed so suddenly and drastically:
1. Complete lack of foreign firepower and air support
2. Increased professionalism and good governance in Opposition territory
3. Economic stagnation and the collapse of Assad's social contract. Image
I'm sure lots will be written on that first pillar, @azelin recently wrote a detailed and helpful article on the 2nd (warontherocks.com/2024/12/the-pa…), and @E_of_Justice's thread here is helpful too x.com/E_of_Justice/s…
Read 26 tweets
Nathan Ruser Profile picture
Nov 6, 2024
I think the rest of the world just has to realise the US we thought we all knew probably just doesn't exist and hasn't for a while. We need to shift our assumptions and look at the US in the same way we look at India.
Harris didn't lose this race, and post mortems are useless. America made an informed and considered choice and picked the man they did. There's probably not much a reasonable democratic campaign could've done to change that. America saw Trump. And they liked him.
This also isn't a slight on India, it's a remarkable (and deeply flawed) country that we work with productively and well, it's just an entirely different ballgame (and sense of exceptionalism), and honestly the lens we will need to look at the States through imo.
Read 4 tweets

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