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May 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is really interesting, a military analyst on Russian TV pointing out all the problems with general mobilization. Basically Russia would struggle to make modern equipment on its own. Would take far too long.
Btw, he’s speaking the truth completely from any impartial point of view. A general mobilization is a recipe for getting a mass of poorly trained conscripts into action with old equipment….unless they want to wait a long time.
I tried to address similar points about the difficulty of equipping a force from general mobilisation in this article that was published earlier today in @spectator spectator.co.uk/article/is-put…
And I wasn’t even thinking in terms of aircraft or naval vessels as I assume it would take far too long to make those under sanctions (few microchips,
etc) to be much of an issue.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 9
What rhetoric Putin used in his speech is immaterial. If he didn’t declare war, or a general mobilisation, that’s what important. Without concrete steps to build a new force, Russia can’t fight a long war, and the clock starts ticking on the failure of their army in Ukraine
Just read this translation of Putin’s speech. Reaction—that’s it? Completely out of ideas. Either doesn’t now understand the reality of the situation in Ukraine, or wilfully ignoring it. meduza.io/en/feature/202…
Other thing to take from it—no attempt to set the stage for escalation. No call for the Russian people to make great sacrifice. Nothing at all really.
Read 18 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 8
Ukraine war update, based on Russian losses (ukr claim). What might be happening and where its going. First, the big change over the last week has been the Ukrainians taking back territory around Kharkiv while Russians plod on in Donbas.
Here are @TheStudyofWar Kharkiv maps on April 30 and May 7. Russians being pushed back to Russian border north of Kharkiv and away to the east. Might be already out of artillery range of the city. ImageImage
Situation in the Donbas pocket. A few Russian small gains, but also signs of a Ukrainian counterattack to the west of Izyum. Again, you can look at the maps. If Ukrainian counterattack around Izyum does threaten Russian supplies into the pocket, that is a real problem for Russia. ImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 7
@EuromaidanPress has just released its daily report for day 73 of the war. Has a statement from Ukrainian military intelligence that either cant be right, or the Russian Army is in dire straits, cant fight for more than a few weeks before failure. euromaidanpress.com/2022/05/07/rus…
Basically Ukrainian intelligence is saying that the Russians are rushing recruits into action after only 4 days of training, and they might even be conscripts. Here is the screenshot.
I would be surprised if things were quite that bad--but if true, this Russian army is in worse shape than I had imagined. If anyone can find more stories on this, please share. Its certainly something to watch.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 7
To put Russian tank losses in 72 days of fighting in Ukraine into perspective--if Ukrainian claims are at all close to being accurate, the Russians have lost as many tanks as the Germans lost on the ENTIRE Eastern Front during the summer campaign of 1943. Including Kursk, et al.
Maybe a better way to put the Ukrainian claims of Russian losses in context. During the first 12 days of the Battle of Kursk, when German losses were running at their highest, estimated Germans tank losses were between 25-350 (I have the citation in How the War was Won, p 310.
Oops, added up APC losses. Ukrainian claims of Russian tank losses in Ukraine during the most recent 12 days of the Battle of the Donbas (22 April-4May) are 238. So either at or just below German losses during the most intense period of the Battle of Kursk.
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 7
This letter could be a very important development. First I’ve seen of members of congress, @tedlieu @AdamKinzinger @RepHoulahan that is well thought out and structured on AirPower. With all the focus on ground equipment, we can’t forget that the foundation of Ukrainian success…
Has been it’s ability to keep Russian AirPower at bay (much against expected wisdom). This has to continue for Ukraine to maintain its momentum, and yet it’s the one area where Ukraine seems to not be getting what it wants.
As the letter makes clear; Ukraine must get SAM systems of all types to keep the air war balanced. And, if you want to help Ukraine win, give it more offensive air assets such as fixed wing (F15 and F16), which it’s pilots can fly with training.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 7
@KyivIndependent has published its most detailed story so far about the Battle of the Donbas and it’s really thorough. What’s really interesting is they give more glimpses than we normally get of Ukrainian tactics and advantages.
Such as their mobile defense operations, (when they pulled back and why).
And really interestingly, they claim Ukraine is winning the UAV war both in their observation of the Russians and, crucially, in limiting Russian artillery observation of Ukrainian positions, thus limiting what should be one of Russias big advantages (lots of artillery)
Read 5 tweets

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