Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Ukraine war update, based on Russian losses (ukr claim). What might be happening and where its going. First, the big change over the last week has been the Ukrainians taking back territory around Kharkiv while Russians plod on in Donbas.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1522729525062385665?s=20&t=L4OZPq6YMu4KI7g4jmK-rQ

Here are @TheStudyofWar Kharkiv maps on April 30 and May 7. Russians being pushed back to Russian border north of Kharkiv and away to the east. Might be already out of artillery range of the city.

Situation in the Donbas pocket. A few Russian small gains, but also signs of a Ukrainian counterattack to the west of Izyum. Again, you can look at the maps. If Ukrainian counterattack around Izyum does threaten Russian supplies into the pocket, that is a real problem for Russia.

No turning to Ukrainian claims of Russian losses. Btw, Im using these only as indications of how the war might be developing--Im not assuming they are exact. However Im assuming that if they are exaggerated, the rate of exaggeration is roughly equal.

Overall these claims indicate very intense combat since April 18 (when the battle started). Ive made a chart comparing daily loss rates to that point and after. What's important is even though the Russian Army is 1/4 to 1/3 smaller, loss claims are close to the same

In the case of tanks, even higher, raising from 14.3 before April 18 to 17.6 afterwards, a signifcant 25% increase in losses claimed from what would have to be a smaller force. Again, if these are indicators of combat intensity, such a pace cant be maintained for long.

Now breaking down by weapon types, particular focus on tanks and combined range weapons (Artiller/MLRS). They give an indication that the fighting has gone through a rather distinct progression.

In tank claims (now expressed in rolling 3-day averages with the date indicated the last day of the calculation, there was a very large increase in claimed losses up until 28 April and a steady decline since. Looks like extreme armor losses from April 25-30

These claims are double the average daily claim of the war, and considering that the Russian army is much smaller--indicates that this had to be some pretty intense, even close-quarter combat.

A very different pattern emerges for Ukr claims of range weapon destruction (Artillery and MLRS). That stays pretty stable until April 30, and then has a huge acceleration for 5 days (before tailing down).

Could indicate that the Russian armor forces burnt themselves out attacking in the Donbas, became more cautious (which fits with Pentagon intelligence) and the war turned more to range weaponry.

Also indicates, for a few days, an much greater effectiveness in Ukr abilities to take out Russian ranged weaponry. Could indicate proficiency in the new artillery and loitering munitions they are receiving. popularmechanics.com/military/weapo…

Interesting caveat to all of this, is that Russian APCs (and this includes all armored fighting vehicles) has remained remarkably constant. showing no distinct phases of combat.

Quick summation on looking at the claims.
1) Combat has been very intense since Apr 18 (really Apr 25) with very high losses claimed from a much smaller Russian forces.
2) There was a serious attempt by the Russians to advance from Apr 25 to May 1 if tank claims are considered.

3) After May 1, seems that the combat effort by the Ukrainians moved to employ ranged weapons to take out Russian ranged weapons.
4) Overall, this battle cant last much longer. These loss claims, even if reduced by one third, are not sustainable. The APC losses are also extreme.

Will try to update during the day.

To clarify on the averages, this is a daily average over the three days leading to that date, not the average over three days. For instance, Ukr claims of Russian tank losses on April 26-27-28 were 34-21-31. The daily avg over the three days was 28.6 (the peak avg)

Ukrainian claims for yesterday just appeared. Reinforces existing trends. Russian tank losses very low (8), and APCs also on the lower side (28), artillery/MLRS levelled off (7).

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status/1523216617877827584