Peter English #FBPE Profile picture
May 8 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Short 🧵 on #Beergate.

It's something of a cliché that many news organisations, asked if it's raining, will ask "experts" to come and give opposing opinions, when a proper journalist would open the window.
2/ Throughout #Beergate, many news organisations are piling in, speculating about the potential consequences for Labour/Starner. Generating enough hot air to ward off the energy problems for weeks.
3/ Yet, only on Twitter, have I seen people who understand what the rules were at the relevant points in time, and looked to see whether Starmer/Labour and Johnson/Conservatives were compliant with the rules applicable at the time.
4/ Why can't journalists say "we've looked into the details of the rules that applied, and… [conclusions]". Are they so frightened of accusations of partiality if the police make a contrary decision?
5/ I am sick to the back teeth of all this speculation without any attempt to work out the answers, other than to say that only the Durham police can decide.
6/ Let's hope that, if it becomes clear that Starmer/Labour were compliant with the rules that applied at the time, the mischief-makers are punished one way or another.

And that includes news organisations.

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More from @petermbenglish

May 7
1/ "Investigation continues into mysterious rise in cases of hepatitis in children"

Adenovirus is common and often trivial or asymptomatic.

You would expect a proportion ("E") of children in any random sample to test positive for it.

f7td5.app.goo.gl/Rqsjia
2/ What proportion of the children with hepatitis are observed ("O") to test positive?

Unless O/E>1, there's no reason to suspect an association, let alone a causal association.
OK, I've now skimmed through the UKHSA report assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… and read this short BMJ article emails.bmj.com/c/1sxiFtzLvaNw…

I cannot find any mention of the how or whether the rate of adenovirus found in the children with hepatitis differs from the background rate.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 27
1/ So, the governments policies re discharge to care homes was unlawful.

BBC News - Covid: Discharging hospital patients to care homes 'unlawful'
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…

No surprise there, then.
2/ What about the policies that were clearly designed to ensure all children were infected in school?
3/ What about the insistence (to PHE staff, who were not permitted to use their expertise to provide best public health advice), as well as to the public, that asymptomatic transmission was impossible? Until incontrovertible evidence to the contrary had accumulated?
Read 6 tweets
Mar 31
1/ How worried am I about the ending of free mass testing for Covid-19 in England from April Fools' Day?

(Is there a clue in the date?!)

What are we trying to achieve? I think we are trying to do several things:
2/ A) To assess the incidence, in order to know eg how likely it is that you will be exposed to infection when out and about; and to assess the likelihood of becoming infected if exposed, and the severity of illness (from asymptomatic to seriously ill), and to link this with…
3/ …the number and timing of vaccinations.

B) To identify new variants, especially those which are significant through eg being more infectious, better able to escape immunity from vaccination or prior infection with different previous variants, and/or more virulent.
Read 20 tweets
Feb 22
1/ UKHSA will lead on future pandemic planning… gov.uk/government/new…

Let's hope they'll also consider the lessons to be learned about airborne infections: the value of masks, PAPR, ventilation etc; and the importance of lockdown rules and their communication.
2/ Some of the rules during the lockdowns were unnecessary. Outdoors is relatively safe; police arresting people for sitting down outdoors or going for walks was excessive.

But rules were inconsistent and dreadfully communicated, as @garius explained:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1289127…
3/ We need to plan for future lockdowns:
* what rules are needed for what sort of transmission;
* how to convert these into recommendations and/or laws
* how to ensure they will be understood and work in the real world
* how to communicate them…
Read 10 tweets
Feb 10
1/ Triggle @nicktriggleon asked "Is ending the last Covid rule 'brave or stupid'?" bbc.co.uk/news/health-60…

See also bmj.com/content/376/bm…

I know which answer most public health scientists would give.
2/ The change is about allowing - even encouraging - people who are infectious and who, in many/most cases, will know they are infectious to freely engage in society.

To do so creates risk for others. For some this risk will be tolerable; for others it will not.
3/ People will be infected and come to avoidable harm as a result.

Some of the people who bear the harm will be in groups who will have taken all reasonable means to protect themselves by being vaccinated.
Read 37 tweets
Feb 8
It's OK that MPs aren't allowed to state the truth - when another MP is a liar.

But when there's a proven lie, the MP should be banned from the House until they agree to apologise and retract.

Maybe the speaker can't be expected to recognise all lies and enforce this…
…The speaker may not be able to recognise and enforce this with all lies (although some are constantly repeated and s/he should be alert to these and require immediate retraction and apology on pain of exclusion); and other lies…
…Other lies should be flagged up to the speaker's office, and there should be a process for adjudicating whether they are lies (or "misleading"); and any adjudged to be so should require the MP who lied/ misled to retract and apologise at the first opportunity, or be excluded.
Read 4 tweets

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