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May 8 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Selbst Teile der deutschen Industrie-Lobby denken dass ein #Ölembargo in 6 bis 8 Monaten zu langsam ist!

"Ölembargo ist richtig, muss aber schneller kommen" sagt der Maschinenbau-Verband @VDMAonline

vdma.org/viewer/-/v2art…
"[Ein Ölembargo] ist überfällig und nötig. [...] Die geplante schrittweise Einführung bis zum Jahresende ist aber nicht ambitioniert genug. Wenn man die Einnahmequellen für Putins Kriegsmaschinerie effektiv treffen will, muss das Embargo wesentlich schneller greifen."
"Obwohl das Ölembargo auch den Maschinen- und Anlagenbau indirekt weiter belasten wird, sieht der VDMA angesichts des aggressiven und menschenverachtenden Verhaltens Russlands in der Ukraine keine Alternative zu einer weiteren Verschärfung der Sanktionen."
@n_roettgen @fuecks @KLeikert @ulrichspeck
Und Respekt an den @VDMAonline für die klaren Worte und die eindeutige Position!

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More from @ben_moll

Ben Moll Profile picture
May 9
.@tom_krebs on a gas import stop: 1.6%*5 = 8%.

Only the 1.6% is @tom_krebs own number. The factor of 5 is from a totally different study from a totally different context (Fukushima).

Even the authors of the Fukushima study themselves say they would not make this calculation.
Where does this "production multiplier" of 5 come from?

From an important paper on supply chain disruptions after Fukushima by Vasco Carvalho, Makoto Nirei, Yukiko Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi @QJEHarvard which indeed finds substantial amplification.

academic.oup.com/qje/article/13…
We asked Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi & Vasco Carvalho what they thought of the @tom_krebs_ calculation. Here is what they said:

"We ourselves would not use that Japan- and earthquake-specific number as a starting point for a quantitative assessment of energy disruptions in Europe."
Read 14 tweets
Ben Moll Profile picture
Apr 25
When people run out of arguments, they start saying things that aren't quite true.

Here is the Head of the Scholz Chancellery @W_Schmidt_ talking about our work on an import stop of Russian energy and this is exactly what happens

around min 26:00

1/
The @ZEITstiftung panel, also featuring @fromTGA @HalynaYanchenko @AbaziHaki & moderated by @AslanTV, is well worth watching

@fromTGA mentions our paper "It would cost a lot, maybe 2-3% of GDP, but it’s doable"

@W_Schmidt_ then says a few things we would like to react to.

2/
Some of these statements are either misleading or plainly wrong.

More importantly though @W_Schmidt_ simply dismisses a whole body of work that concludes: economic costs of an embargo would be substantial (eg jobs would be lost) but not catastrophic.



3/
Read 14 tweets
Ben Moll Profile picture
Apr 5
I finally got around to reading this.

There are some fair points, in particular some we explicitly acknowledge (missing aggregate demand amplification etc)

But I will react to the main criticism because it is quite far fetched: that there is no chemical industry in our model. Image
First, in its literal interpretation, the sentence "there is no German chemical industry" is demonstrably false.

Anyone can see for themselves by simply reading our paper and I'm sure @tom_krebs_ was aware of this.

1/ Image
Now if you read @tom_krebs_ article in more detail, that's not actually what he means.

Instead his criticism is that we use a common elasticity of substitution for household consumption ("turn down heating") and different sectors in industry ("cracking furnaces").

2/ Image
Read 15 tweets
Ben Moll Profile picture
Mar 28
Here is an English translation (without comment) of @Bundeskanzler last night @annewill on

(a) why gas & oil income is useless for Russia anyway

(b) economists

If you understand German, watch from min 18:00 daserste.ndr.de/annewill/video…. Transcript here benjaminmoll.com/Scholz/.

🧵
Will: Is [continuing to buy Russian energy] really your answer to people dying in Ukraine?

Scholz: Three answers. The first is: because of our precise sanctions, which are also aimed at the Russian central bank, Putin cannot do anything with the money he has in his accounts[...]
That is: we have made sure that the several hundred billion already stored in these accounts cannot be used at all, so it is very unlikely that this connection even exists, because this applies to any new income in just the same way as for income that has already been earned ...
Read 18 tweets
Ben Moll Profile picture
Mar 21
In our import stop paper we emphasize that it makes a big difference how much people and firms can substitute for Russian energy inputs.

How might such substitution work in concrete terms?

A new supplement to our paper has some more thoughts

benjaminmoll.com/RussianGas_Sub…

Thread:
First, some real-world examples showing how firms do find ways to substitute & sometimes even to their own surprise.

Particularly relevant: the Chinese embargo of rare earths exports to Japan and how Japanese producers adapted and substituted in response.

1/
Perhaps even more relevant for the discussion at hand: shutdown of the Druzhba pipeline due to contamination. Response: ship the oil instead.

This is example is borrowed straight from @jakluge's excellent thread



2/
Read 16 tweets
Ben Moll Profile picture
Mar 20
Thanks for the thread @ChristianKopf. But why would you deliberately ignore our main macro analysis using the @DBaqaee-Farhi model which addresses some of your criticisms and features exactly the types of production chains that people are worried about in popular debate?
Point of "beer mat model": provide intuition and model some worst-case scenarios in a simple & transparent way.



The main @DBaqaee-Farhi model gives smaller numbers even in very pessimistic scenarios. What can we say?
The criticism that we do not have nominal rigidities and ensuing Keynesian demand effects is fair. We are very clear about this in the paper.

These would need to be added on top of supply-side effects we model e.g. 0.5% or 3%.

It's important that they depend on policy though.
Read 5 tweets

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