Thread by @DrTongia

How bad is India's coal-stockpile-based power crisis? NO ONE KNOWS!

The coping mechanism is brownouts ("load-shedding"), but these are not properly measured.

I've been suggesting & helping design proper feeder measurements since 2014-15.

A short 🧵 on what's happening vs. not.

Govt. is putting out more data than ever before...but we are missing some key data.

Here, daily shortfall (GW) data (from grid operator @PosocoIndia) are based on a notional peak and "as reported" or estimated instead of "as measured".

(usually) 11kV feeders are where load-shedding happens. These aren't fully instrumented (metered). Where metered, it's mostly for energy accounting purposes, & not real-time/compiled.

urjamitra.com/app/index.html shows real-time status, but only for a small subset of states/feeders.

@CEA_India's Load Generation Balancing Report (LGBR) has an even more fundamental problem than lack of measurement - supply and demand [and thus gaps] are calculated at different time periods! I wrote about that in 2014: brookings.edu/research/re-th…

Load-shedding may be a necessary evil to prevent a grid collapse, but it's expensive: back-up power and/or loss of productivity.

A #SmartGrid can help limit curtailment to prioritize minimum guaranteed lifelines and priority services (including those willing to pay).

India is in a crisis, so hard to do root-cause (systemic) change just now . But when it tides over, we need to:
1) instrument and measure the problem better
2) incentivize saving energy *at the right time*
3) Be willing to pay for a buffer - even more critical as wind/solar grow.

Growing RE will also help; displaces coal in the short/medium run. But in the long run, variable RE (VRE = intermittent) alone won't help meet "net demand"= demand - VRE. Net demand still peaks in the evening.

See @CSEP_Org's carbontracker.in for real-time supply by fuel.