New @csep_org paper on India's electricity grid, w/ Aarushi Dave (@gridlerposts) & Utkarsh Dalal

We examine 2019 5-min data to study the mix of supply options and what might happen as RE scales.

TL/DR: Variability matters; avg. numbers are misleading

csep.org/working-paper/… @CSEP_Org @Gridlerposts Findings (1/2):
1) Coal does a lot more for balancing than gas (higher base)
2) More RE puts more strain on the grid
3) Focusing on Net Demand (Demand minus RE), it has a higher ramping than Demand. This is with <10% RE!
4) Hydro is a good peaker BUT some months is less flexible

India's #electricity grid set several record highs Tuesday - there's a heatwave going on.
Per @GridIndia1's MERIT data (via @CSEP_Org's carbontracker.in):
1) Record demand met: ~216 GW
2) Record #coal generation: over 166 GW

📢 3 issues going forward...(short 🧵) Issues:
1) This isn't over - typical annual peaks are in June(ish).
2) The peak was not AM any more, rather, closer to 3 PM
3) Coal's output has been steady near max, with long durations of highs.

These 3 pts have implications as expanded below.

How bad is India's coal-stockpile-based power crisis? NO ONE KNOWS!

The coping mechanism is brownouts ("load-shedding"), but these are not properly measured.

I've been suggesting & helping design proper feeder measurements since 2014-15.

A short 🧵 on what's happening vs. not. Govt. is putting out more data than ever before...but we are missing some key data.

Here, daily shortfall (GW) data (from grid operator @PosocoIndia) are based on a notional peak and "as reported" or estimated instead of "as measured".

As US convenes a Climate Summit, are developing regions a distraction from where the real action should be: emissions from HI emitters?

LDCs should focus on 1) electrification, regardless of fuel 2) slowing C growth & peaking lower 3) avoiding lock-ins.

hindustantimes.com/analysis/in-th… The real problem isn’t rising emissions from the poor, it’s lack of reductions from high-emitters (mostly the rich).

It’s worse than the graph shows. The High Emitters’ *share* is falling, but absolute emissions are still rising (0.79% annually till '19).

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Short thread on the real problems with power procurement in India, aka BIDDING DOESN'T SOLVE THE PROBLEM

New PPA after 5 years: Madhya Pradesh approves pact with Adani Power financialexpress.com/industry/new-p… via @FinancialXpress India doesn't bid for power, it bids for power plants.

You may get the cheapest coal plant, but not the cheapest power. RTC (“round the clock”) bids indicate trends but are also misleading. India needs Time of Day WHOLESALE pricing to improve generation portfolio signaling.

(1/n) #9pm9minutes PRELMINARY Analysis
carbontracker.in timestamps are limited!
Key points:
1)Total demand fall DUE TO EVENT was ?~29 GW.
2)Demand fall started before 9 pm
3)Most balancing was done by hydro [BIG TIME]
4)Grid rise (aka “recovery”) finished ~10:30 pm (2/n) Demand fall was not just due to lighting.

Too much fall, and some of load fall began as early as 8:45. All evenings “normally” decline 3.5-5.5 GW after peak ~7:30. Fall after 8:45 was measurably more than normal trend. See carbontracker.in for other days.

(1/n) Thread on 9 PM lights-out & candles-on plan by @narendramodi

TL/DR – it should *likely* not be a problem because (1) we can plan; (2) the lighting load is modest (maybe 10% of total grid at most. (3) We have enough fast acting supply options that can manage. (2/n) SCIENCE: 3 factors that matter; 1) how much switches off/on? 2) How fast does this happen? 3) What does the grid look like to be able to cope? Oversimiplification – we’ll only look macro level (means frequency, not voltage), and ignore transients.

(1/n) #SmartMeters are great, but not a panacea.

Short thread on what's real, what's not, & how to bridge the top-down push with state/discom ground realities (esp. preparedness).

My @htTweets OpEd:
hindustantimes.com/analysis/can-s…

cc: @NsgmIndia @MinOfPower @CEA_India @IndiaSmartGridF (2/n) [DISCLAIMER: I helped set up India's smart grid space. Am ~evangelist, but also a realist]
Discoms have high losses, partly due to theft/poor billing (and collection); other reason is tariffs < costs. A smart meter (esp. in prepaid mode) offers promise to cut down losses.

1/15: [THREAD] Unpacking the Headlines:
20 GW of #NuclearPower planned in India by 2030

2 ways to analyze:
1)Can it happen - and should it happen?
2)What’s nuclear’s role, and what’s special/different about India?

I combine both aspects in this thread 2/15: The plans tick many of the right boxes – standardized designs, fleets, etc. There is also talk of encouraging the private sector – but will they bite? Global private sector is even harder given #DifferencesOfOpinion on the nuclear liability bill.