Thread by @MarkHertling

What did Putin's "Victory Day" speech contain and what does it tell us?

There were some interesting take-aways, some good, some bad.

Here's what I saw in the film and the reports. A🧵 1/6

Many (me included) were wrong on predicting:
1. A declaration of victory (strategic, operation, or tactical).
2. A formal announcement of mobilization.

What wasn't said is important (especially #1) because intel said he had told his generals to produce a victory by 9 May. 2/

As a reminder, here what I thought were the early RU Strategic objectives:
-Execute regime change in Ukraine (replace Zelensky in Kyiv).
-Control Black/Azov Sea access
-Destroy Ukraine's army in the east
-Subjugate Ukraine's population
-Further Divide NATO & US 3/

And here are what I believe were the related initial Operational (military) Objectives:
-Main Effort (ME): Seize & secure Kyiv
-Secondary Effort (SE) 1: Attack to the East & West from Crimea; seize/secure Black/Azov Sea ports
-SE 2: Envelop/Annihilate UA in the Donbas 4/

Tactical Objectives:
-Seize Kyiv within 3 days
-Conduct large scale combined arms operations in N, E and S, with overwhelming land and air arms.
-Control Black/Azov Sea
-Secure all cities (then emplace govt supporting RU)
-Establish supply lines to support continued ops. 5/

Back to the speech.

It contained many of the old tropes/lies:
-NATO going to attack Crimea, Donbas, then Russia (a standard lie. I never heard a RU general ever say any of this...and it's counterfactual).
-Nazis are everywhere, but especially in Ukraine
-The west is weak 3/

What was NOT said, but observed:
-Troop & equipment parade seemed smaller
-No aircraft Z- pattern overflight ("bad weather;" skies were clear!); no "doomsday aircraft" (Putin's C2 bird)
-No GEN Gerasimov (rumored wounded at Izyum)
-Hammer & sickle flag behind Russian tricolor 4/

This is a unrefined analysis, but here's what I take from this:

1. Putin know he's losing: militarily, diplomatically, economically, informationally...it will get worse?
2. Putin can't spike the ball right now; he's looking for a way out?
3. RU domestic support teetering? 5/

The next few days are critical. Here's what I'm watching:

-Call for mob
-The NE Donbas fight, especially near Sieverondonestk/Popasna; the fight south of Izyum, & the fight over control of the Donets River bridges.
-The UA counterattack NE of Kharkiv
-Mariupol
-Logistics 6/6