Thread by @YudinGreg

I have been traveling a lot across Europe recently. Everywhere it was obvious that there is a major war in Europe, with one exception: Moscow.
A🧵on how Moscow has changed over the last month and how what I call the “normalization party” is emerging 1/19

2/19 Visible impact of war on everyday life is still very limited. After the two weeks of initial panic, the economy cheered up. People who rushed to buy foreign currency and withdraw cash are now blaming themselves for not trusting enough in Putin 2/19 economist.com/finance-and-ec…

Some stores have already reopened, others promise to reopen soon. Customers don’t care about legal details 3/19
diyinternational.com/content/news/2…

Took a picture of a BP petrol station flying the flag of Soviet/Russian army 4/19

Curiously, I know people who were initially so scared as to expect NATO troops to appear on Kyiv highway near Moscow. When this didn’t happen, they regained belief that Putin will get away with this again. Depoliticization derails judgment and fuels unrealistic expectations 5/19

Parks and cafes are full of those enjoying first relatively warm days. However, it is easy to recognize that chatting often revolves around events in Ukraine. Sounds like there is not much enthusiasm left 6/19

Increasingly more people are asking if there will be a war – meaning if there will be something that would directly affect their security and everyday life. Many start changing their plans for holidays or big purchases. Denial gives way to anxiety 7/19

Old lady getting a haircut says her daughter is a VP at S7 Airlines and keeps calling her from London cursing Putin. "They're saying nonsense about Putin in🇬🇧!" (generation divide is deepening). However, she complains that she might not see her daughter for quite a while now 8/19

Friends from retail business are telling me their foreign suppliers are waiting for a ceasefire (not even peace) to return to Russia immediately. Big capital wants this to end no matter how. Since Putin is not going to concede anyway, it would be better if he wins asap 9/19

The demand for coming back to normal is significant. It is very likely that among the Russian leadership there is a “normalization party” that resists further fascization of society, expecting to lose from it. It certainly includes Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin 10/19

Very importantly, the eve of Victory Day was not used in Moscow to raise military hysteria. This year, military symbols are present, but less prominent and less aggressive than usual. This promo guy using military outfit is an exception 11/19

Even more importantly: no symbolic connection is established in Moscow between the VD and the current war. Z-symbols are almost absent from the VD decoration. The decoration itself is limited 12/19

The chances are far higher to stumble upon an anti-war slogan than a car with Z-signs 13/19

Outside of Moscow situation changes. Local government promotes the Z, even changing the road signs (FYI: letter Z is absent from Cyrillic alphabet). All public transport vehicles have Z painted on them. This, however, isn’t supported by private car owners 14/19

Literally everyday people approach me on the streets just to say “thank you”, which to me is also a sudden indication that opposition to war is considerable 15/19

However, everyone is very skeptical about the chances to stop Putin. Hopelessness is overwhelming. “You cannot stop him anyway, isn’t worth even trying”. This assumption often makes people support Putin even stronger in hope that he destroys Ukraine soon and ends the war 16/19

I have met people who initially opposed the war but later consciously chose to accept Putin’s claim that “we had no choice” – admitting openly that otherwise life would have become absolutely unbearable for them 17/19

It is likely that demand for normalization + military failures will drive Putin to seek ceasefire to rearm. This could be a significant test for the united West, for financial elites will be lobbying for ceding Ukrainian territory, lifting sanctions, and returning to normal 18/19

A lot will depend on whether at this point both Russians and investors will see Putin as a guarantor or impediment to normality. Finding a convincing answer to the question “What would Russia’s future without Putin look like?” becomes crucial for ending this war 19/19