Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 9, 2022 41 tweets 13 min read Read on X
This is going to be a long thread🧵 on Ukraine's unique 21st century fighting style based on Uber style C3I software, why Western intelligence is plug ignorant of it due to CROWDSTRIKE cybersecurity firm, & the implications of SpaceX's Starlink satcom for the future...

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...of warfare & politics. This is going to be a wild thread, so buckle up.

First we need to talk about Ukraine's "GIS Art for Artillery" software package written by Yaroslav Sherstyuk.

web.archive.org/web/2020110811…
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Sherstyuk's software package is reminiscent Uber or Lyft's taxi software in that assigns targets to the nearest gun, mortar, rocket launcher, Aerosvidzka drone or SF team.

This is nothing like the US Military's Tactical Fire Direction System (TACFIRE)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
3/ 'GIS Art for Artillery' app...'GIS Art for Artillery' app...'GIS Art for Artillery' app...TACFIRE Infographic
...or Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data System (AFATDS).

The 2009 AFATDS transitioned from a Sun Microsystems SPARC computer running the Linux kernel to a version based on laptop computers running the Microsoft Windows operating system.

4/ ImageAFTADS windows laptop computer
GIS Art for Artillery, or "GIS Art" for short, isn't the 1950's "Star" style Mainframe-terminal (TACFIRE) or Mainframe-Minicomputer-terminal (AFTADS) ported over to laptops.

It is a true distributed software environment that reduced request for fire to trigger pull from
5/ 'GIS Art for Artillery' app...'GIS Art for Artillery' app...'GIS Art for Artillery' app...'GIS Art for Artillery' app...
...20 minutes to 30 seconds.

By comparison, the US Army did that call to trigger pull in 5 minutes in WW2, 15 minutes in Vietnam and one hour currently.

No, that isn't a typo.

6/
The increased US Army time 'from call to trigger pull' has to do trying to prevent friendly fire plus the inclusion of JAG officers in Division artillery fire control centers doing rules of engagement/collateral damage vetting of calls for fire.

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In 2006, when US Army Special Forces task force hunting high value targets was given direct access to an MLRS battery with GMLRS rockets - without a JAG officer poisoned chain of command - got it back down to Vietnam 15-minute levels in Iraq, thanks to the Blue Force Tracker.
8/ Blue Force Tracker terminal...Infantry Blue Force Tracker...Blue Force Tracker infographic
This didn't last long with the Obama Administration thanks to Taliban high value targets using their own kids as human shields followed by cellphone photos of dead kids.

Then everything went back to the JAG officer game & the Special Forces started buying loitering drones.

9/ Switchblade 300 Lointerin M...
Returning to the "GIS Arta" app, (GIS meaning geospatial) it has evolved into a multi-profile command and control system that can process data from drones, smartphones, rangefinders and commercial satellite images.

This has a lot of implications.



10/
The biggest being that with a good SATCOM link Ukrainian high command could nominate targets in the the "GIS Arta" app to the nearest fire support, drone or convoy hunter killer teams throughout the entire Ukrainian battle space without tipping local units

11/
...to intelligence sources & methods.

Western Intelligence is either ignorant or discounts the "GIS Arta" app because of a CROWDSTRIKE cybersecurity firm December 22, 2016 article claiming the Russians hacked "GIS Arta."
12/
docs.voanews.eu/en-US/2017/03/…
And that the "Fancy Bear" group used the same hacking method to to get into the DNC.

The problem is that hacking of the "GIS Arta" app CROWDSTRIKE claimed never happened.

The VOA did a takedown here:
voanews.com/a/crowdstrike-…
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I knew that CrowdStrike co-founder Dimiti Alperovitc was lying at the time because of a summer 2015 OSINT investigation I did of the strange Ukrainian artillery concentrations hitting DNR forces in Donbas.

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The Ukrainian Army seemed to be using older Soviet-era ground surveillance radars to guide its deep artillery strikes.

Russian video's sent by the Donbas War list-admin showed a UA artillery strike missing a Russian convoy in a classic centroid error of an older radar
15/ 1RL-239 ARK-1 "Rys&quo...1RL-239 ARK-1 "Rys&quo...
...that has two targets close together at extreme range and sees them as a single target.

The video showed a large convoy on the right and UA artillery strikes to the left of them.

[Note: The infographic shows chaff pulling a 'radar centroid' off of a jet]

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The video then pans a little and shows a second road further left with a convoy of vehicles on it.

Both roads seemed to be approaching a fork out of camera view.

17/
I asked the list-admin about it & specifically if a ARK-1 RICE BAG radar could pull that off.

I was told 'No, the most likely Ukrainian sensor directing the artillery fire was a Su-24MR FENCER E M-101 Shtik side looking aerial radar (SLAR)'

18/ Image
The radar centroid error I described was spot-on for 1985 Soviet era kit.

The Su-24MR FENCER E had long range air to ground data links, but directing artillery with it implied some distinctly non-Soviet era command and control doctrine.

There was also the fact the barrage
19/
...looked wrong. And by looked wrong I mean it was all landing in one spot with explosions indicating shells from radically different azimuths.

It was kinda, sorta, a time on target (TOT) from lots of individual guns.
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Usually Russian doctrine artillery batteries fire a "battery solution" and the barrage lands in the pattern of the ground formation of the firing guns.

A TOT from several Russian gun batteries would cover a significant area.

So the Ukrainians were doing something else.

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I systematically searched through Donbas artillery videos of UA artillery strikes & photos of UA artillery positions (single guns).

The thing that stood out was the timing of the barrages, the tightness of the barrages and the variability of the shell bursts.
22/
UA artillery were not firing as batteries. They were firing as individual guns and launchers, then displacing immediately.

Multiple individual guns & mortars of different calibers were shooting dispersed across a large area at the same target in the TOT manner.

23/
Given the following:

1. A radar or laser range finder equipped forward observer with a GPS unit,

2. A gun with a digital radio, digital artillery fire control computer and a GPS unit, and

3. A digital internet data link radio communications tying them together.
24/
It then becomes relatively easy to program a multi-gun, multi-ammunition caliber time on target from whatever guns are in range. You can even call down multiple TOT barrages in a short amount of time using different guns for each barrage-strike on the same target.

25/
That meant Russian counter-battery radars were not seeing battery shoots.

They were seeing lots of individual guns across the front, with multiple trajectories, shooting less than three shells, at the same or different targets, across a whole front.

26/
That was why the Russians were not killing a lot of UA towed artillery with counter-battery in the Summer of 2015 onward.

Russian counter-battery radars were not seeing "worthwhile" battery sized targets for MLRS shoots.

27/
It also made Russian airpower much less effective in the counterbattery role when it showed up.

What cost Ukraine it's towed 122mm guns wasn't destruction by counter battery. It was abandonment when the Debaltsevo pocket fell.

radiosvoboda.org/a/27555492.html

28/
The Ukrainians had multiple dug in positions per 122mm towed gun. They didn't have the resources to do the same with their truck prime movers.

They could camouflage them, but not get them into cover.

The sheer weight of fragmentation damage over time disabled them

29/
...beyond the local ability to repair the day the Debaltsevo pull out came.

The Ukrainian Army chose to save its troops over its heavy weapons and disabled heavy weapons as best they could at short notice.

30/
A lot of DNR & LNR 122mm guns firing at Ukrainians today came from the fall of the Debaltsevo pocket.

The other thing that informed me CROWDSTRIKE was lying happened in the first couple of days post-invasion.

31/
Russia opened the war with a "Zero-day exploit"aimed like a dagger at GIS Art for Artillery app.

Russia took down all of Ukraine's SATCOM terminals and quite a few in Europe besides.

32/
This is where @elonmusk SpaceX Starlink constellation comes in.

Ukraine turned to @elonmusk to replace it's pre-war SATCOM links for 'GIS Art for Artillery' with Starlink.

To date, not only have those SATCOM been replaced, SpaceX has impressed

33/
cnet.com/science/space/…
...the DoD and Western three letter intelligence agencies generally.

SpaceX has handily defeated the strongest cyber & jamming attacks the Russian Federation can assemble.

34/
In addition, one of the lesser known features of SpaceX's Starlink internet service, point to point email service for Starlink users encrypted and not using any ground infrastructure whatsoever, has aided Ukrainian military units behind Russian lines to communicate

35/
...with minimal electronic signature for Russian direction finding to exploit.

Effectively Starlink gave Ukraine the military space telecommunications bandwidth of the United States with zero investment in satellite infrastructure before the war.

36/
Ukraine's 'GIS Art for Artillery' app combined with Starlink actually gives the Ukrainian military measurably better than US Military standard artillery command and control.

The Ukraine War is the first Starlink War & the side with Starlink is beating the side without.
37/
There are a lot of implications in that thought.

Now comes the kicker. When the lasercom equipped SpaceX Gen 1.5 & 2.0 satellites come on-line.
38/
The ability to move huge amounts of bandwidth with zero ground based infrastructure will utterly subvert the ability of national governments & corporations to block or surveil Starlink communications.

39/
The only way the US Government will be able to monitor Starlink communications is with @elonmusk active cooperation.

The power shift involved in that fact is...profound...and something for another thread

40/
Meanwhile, a whole lot of very powerful people are going to have to rethink their place in the world as the Starlink juggernaut remakes the world by helping Ukraine win "The 1st Starlink War."

41/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 17
The thing that has deeply bothered me about this RuAF Tsar-shed tank with jammer and the earlier "Pallet Jammer" tank is the complete lack in any public analysis of the mention of Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC).

You can't throw radio-electronic systems together and expect them to work properly.

EMC🧵
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I have spend too many hours on too many days outside an Anechoic RF chamber with EMC test procedures and fiddly oscilloscopes to miss the fact that the drone jamming systems the Russians have deployed on tanks in Ukraine are missing such testing.

Corrugated steel doesn't an effective R/F ground plane make.🙄

2/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroma…Image
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Ukrainian reports claim four FPV drones were stopped by the "Pallet Jammer" tank while the fifth managed to immobilize the tank for later capture and analysis.

There were some claims that this 5th drone was immune from jamming

Color me skeptical.

3/
mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrain…
Read 8 tweets
Apr 16
While the primary historical mission of the Section 22 special interest group in mapping military history archives is over.

The secondary mission to 'spread the historical wealth' on Japanese radar capabilities in WW2 marks a major achievement.

Daniel Schaefer just successfully defended his doctoral thesis.⬇️

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The thesis of newly minted History PhD Daniel Schaefer goes into detail showing how many US Navy carrier planes were lost over Tanapag Harbor at Saipan - due to a Mark 4 Model 3 gun fire-control radar overlooking it -

2/
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...will certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons in terms of the demolishing the "Standard WW2 Japanese Radar Narrative."

Just one Japanese gunfire control radar cost the USN 12 carrier planes confirmed destroyed over Tanapag Harbor between 11 June & 9 July 1944.

Japanese radar was effective in combat and far more so than the US Joint Chiefs of Staff wanted to admit for post-war budget reasons.

3/3Image
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Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
Iran had hard limits in the number of competent launch crews.

The shut down and reopening of Iranian air space was likely Iran discovering how badly their planning was dancing with Miss Rosey Scenario as far as time on target drone & missile launches were concerned.

1/
The additional 24 to 36 hours was the competent IRGC crews checking the work of the noobs and proxies for this strike in progress.

Senator Rubio was briefed on all the additional drone launch sites that radio traffic associated with the competent crews revealed.

2/
The intelligence on this seems to have gone down something like R V Jones book 'Secret Wars" where he described chasing down V-1 testing sites by locating the two best Nazi radar tracking units with SIGINT and ELINT in 1943.

WW2 military history is always relevant.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Apr 7
English Translation:

"Today, the RussiaNoContext channel published a video from the phone of the Russian military, who filmed the first consequences after the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP and rejoiced at this act of ecocide against Ukraine.

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We will remind that the terrorist attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP was carried out by the Russian occupying forces, the military of the Russian Federation from the 205th Infantry Brigade, around 2:50 a.m. on June 6, 2023.

2/
As a result of this war crime, a large-scale ecological disaster occurred."

Short form:

No Ukrainian missile was involved in the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP.

Russia did it.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 24
Regarding this:

>>no significant damage to the ships is visible.

Fragmentation damage is rarely visible from satellite photos.

The photo intelligence analysts in WW2 hated the use of aerial fragmentation munitions for exactly that reason.

Limits of photo BDA🧵
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Aerial bomb fragmentation damage could only be really be captured immediately after detonation...

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...or on ground that allows high contrast fragment impact marks.

3/

Read 6 tweets
Mar 23
We are seeing a lot of posts and articles on X about Ukraine's OWA drone strategic bombing campaign against Russian refineries .

People, including Jake Sullivan over at the Biden Adm. NSC think this is about AFU cutting off Russian oil.

They're wrong. It's about explosives.
1/
The Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are less about POL than reduction of nitrogen,ammonia and methanol feed stocks for Russian explosives and propellants for it's artillery and missile production.

2/
Ukrainian OWA drones are engaged in strategic counter battery fire against the Russian artillery supply chain providing the explosive fillings & propellent for shells, rockets and missiles.

[This also has knock on effects for Russian fertilizer production.]

3/
Image
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Read 19 tweets

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