Read the Pentagon briefing from yesterday (transcript available), some interesting details provided, particularly on how the Ukrainian and Russian armies are behaving in the Donbas. Here’s the whole transcript. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
Russians are falling back on their ‘doctrine’, which is to blast an area with artillery before sending in artillery. Ukrainians, however, still have mobility, and now much more long range capability, and basically the Russians can’t advance much at all because of these.
The ability of the Ukrainians to maintain mobility right in front of the main Russian line of attack is exactly the thing that @edwardstrngr and I were talking about in this @TheAtlantic article. It’s why their ability to blunt Russian air power is so important.
Ukrainian ranged capabilities should step up notch in the coming days/weeks as more trained personnel with the new equipment reach the battle area. Nice comment that the stress now is also on training personnel on maintaining the new howitzers as Ukraine now has so many.
Also some detail (a little) on Russian soldiers refusing to follow orders. It’s anecdotal, but interestingly the stress was on officers and specifically those fighting in the Donbas. Sounds like signs of battle fatigue creeping in.
Overall summation of Russian progress in the Donbas, incremental and ‘anemic’. It can be measured in a kilometre here and a kilometre there. Basically the Ukrainians making the Russians suffer for every village.
Basically no meaningful change in well over a week, except the Ukrainians are about to get stronger.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
A clip that shows just how the Russian government's message is in chaos, from propagandist in chief Vladimir Solovyov. A number of fascinating things and worth watching.
First, the claim that the special military operation is now a 'turbo' military operation is rhetoric to cover a basic policy continuation. Soon we might have a super-duper turbo charged operation...and it wont make a difference. When it comes to mobilization--still off the table
Its near the end--but boy he wants to emphasize that mobilization is off the table. Hard to imagine that this message is not being scripted from the very top.
Returning to the Ukrainain General Staff claim yesterday that there was a significant shift in Russian force posture to going on the defensive on much of the front, early indications are they might be correct.
Thread on the Pentagon intelligence briefing yesterday, a few things stand out on force calculation, air power,
Here is the whole transcript. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
One very interesting point. Pentagon seems to be abandoning its system for calculating surviving Russian combat strength in Ukraine (prob about time). Drops the 75% figure that was used before, now says 'a majority' of Russian strength remains. May not update again.
Maybe not a bad thing as the earlier calculation seemed strange, and stayed unchanging for long periods when losses were clearly being suffered.
What rhetoric Putin used in his speech is immaterial. If he didn’t declare war, or a general mobilisation, that’s what important. Without concrete steps to build a new force, Russia can’t fight a long war, and the clock starts ticking on the failure of their army in Ukraine
Just read this translation of Putin’s speech. Reaction—that’s it? Completely out of ideas. Either doesn’t now understand the reality of the situation in Ukraine, or wilfully ignoring it. meduza.io/en/feature/202…
Other thing to take from it—no attempt to set the stage for escalation. No call for the Russian people to make great sacrifice. Nothing at all really.
Ukraine war update, based on Russian losses (ukr claim). What might be happening and where its going. First, the big change over the last week has been the Ukrainians taking back territory around Kharkiv while Russians plod on in Donbas.
Here are @TheStudyofWar Kharkiv maps on April 30 and May 7. Russians being pushed back to Russian border north of Kharkiv and away to the east. Might be already out of artillery range of the city.
Situation in the Donbas pocket. A few Russian small gains, but also signs of a Ukrainian counterattack to the west of Izyum. Again, you can look at the maps. If Ukrainian counterattack around Izyum does threaten Russian supplies into the pocket, that is a real problem for Russia.
This is really interesting, a military analyst on Russian TV pointing out all the problems with general mobilization. Basically Russia would struggle to make modern equipment on its own. Would take far too long.
Btw, he’s speaking the truth completely from any impartial point of view. A general mobilization is a recipe for getting a mass of poorly trained conscripts into action with old equipment….unless they want to wait a long time.
I tried to address similar points about the difficulty of equipping a force from general mobilisation in this article that was published earlier today in @spectatorspectator.co.uk/article/is-put…