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May 10, 2022 26 tweets 9 min read Read on X
A Thread on Blitzkrieg Myth

Popular histories of World War Two love to talk about a German strategy known as "Blitzkrieg" - supposedly an innovative, high speed, overwhelming attack, responsible for their early successes.

Only one problem: Blitzkrieg isn't real. (1) Image
"Blitzkrieg", which means "Lightning War", was never a term that the German military used to describe their approach to war. The term was invented by western journalists, mainly to try to explain why Germany was winning so easily. Germany only used the term in propaganda. (2) Image
The Germans themselves definitely did not think of Blitzkrieg as a real military concept. Hitler called it "a completely idiotic word." Nor did the Wehrmacht think of itself as pioneering some entirely new approach to warfare.

So what were the Germans actually doing? (3) Image
The Wehrmacht conceived of itself as simply applying a long established German approach to war - not Blitzkrieg, but what they called "Bewegungskrieg": the War of Movement.

Let's take a look at this centuries old German theory of warfighting. (4) Image
Let's go all the way back, to famous Prussia. Prussia was an interesting little state. Formally Brandenburg-Prussia, its geography did not suggest a great power in the making. It was small, with bad soil, a small population, and an exposed position in the heart of Europe. (5) Image
The Hohenzollern rulers of Prussia were ambitious. But how could a tiny state like this hope to compete in the geopolitical arena? The answer was clearly to devise a warfighting approach that could compensate for Prussia's weaknesses. (6)
Because Prussia was small, sparsely populated, and poor relative to its competitors, its leaders knew that it had no chance of surviving in protracted wars of attrition. It would simply be ground to dust by superior enemy resources. (7) Image
The solution was to prioritize battlefield aggression, so that the enemy could be brought to grips and defeated in a single decisive battle. This would create wars that were, as the Prussians put it, "kurz und vives" - Short and Lively! (8) Image
To this end, Prussian armies were drilled relentlessly. They were known for being able to deploy into formation faster than their enemies, and for the pace of their reloading. In an era where most armies could fire 2 or 3 musket volleys per minute, the Prussians could do 5. (9) Image
But Prussia's warfighting theories went beyond simply leveraging more firepower out of the infantry. They also greatly prized operational aggression: the movement of large units, with the intention of seeking a decisive engagement with the enemy. (10) Image
Prussian Generals were fanatical about seeking out decisive battle. The job of Prussian officer was simple: march at high speed towards the enemy, find him, and attack immediately. As Fredrick the Great famously said:

"The Prussian army always attacks." (11) Image
This extreme aggression was perhaps best personified in the Napoleonic era commander, Marshal Gebhard von Blücher. Nicknamed "Marshall Forward" by his men, he famously never asked about the enemy's strength or intentions. He only asked one question: "Where is the enemy?" (12) Image
To recap, we can identify three different aspects of Prussian war-making:

1) A focus on concentrated firepower
2) Bold maneuver of large formations with intent to operationally compromise the enemy
3) Commanders that were taught to prioritize aggression and the attack

(13) Image
The ultimate goal of all of this was to move the bulk of the army into an operationally valuable position (such as the enemy's flank, or rear area) and then attack with all possible force. Bewegungskrieg allowed Prussia to punch well above its weight class for centuries. (14) Image
Over time, as war became more complicated and armies became larger, the Prussian commander was paired with a highly educated staff officer. The commander still pursued aggressive maneuvers, while the staff officer advised and managed the technical, logistical concerns. (15) Image
In other words, the Commander wove his operational vision, while the staff officer implemented it in light of distances, topography, and logistics.

The combination of the action-oriented commander and the technical expertise of the staff officer was extremely effective. (16) Image
World War One brought an abrupt end to Prusso-German dreams of Bewegungskrieg. The defensive power of artillery, trenches, and barbed wire made operational maneuver nearly impossible. Instead of a war of movement, Germany was forced into their nightmare: a war of attrition. (17) Image
In the interwar period, however, the development of new weapons systems like tanks, aircraft, and motorized infantry allowed Germany to return to Bewegungskrieg. It was once again possible to effectively maneuver large units on the operational scale. (18) Image
Crucially, however, the Germans did not view themselves as inventing something new. Rather, they believed that modern technology had simply restored their traditional approach to war. They were practicing traditional Bewegungskrieg, not "Blitzkrieg." (19) Image
Many of the greatest commanders of the Wehrmacht, like Manstein, Kluge, and Guderian, were not just German, but specifically descendants of Prussian military families. They attended military academies that taught the historical Prussian approach to war. (20) ImageImageImage
Ultimately, Bewegungskrieg failed to win the war for Germany because of the Soviet Union's power to mobilize fresh units and remain in the field as a fighting force. The Wehrmacht aimed to destroy the Red Army's fighting power in decisive battle. This was impossible. (21) Image
Now, why is this relevant today?

We've seen many people over the last few months talk about Russia attempting their own "Blitzkrieg" in Ukraine. Right off the bat, you should know that anyone who says this isn't serious. Blitzkrieg is a nonsense term. (22)
Furthermore, Russia is clearly not attempting a Bewegungskrieg style penetration in depth in the Donbas; they are proceeding methodically, making full use of their advantages in firepower and mobility, and carefully shaping the battlefield. (23)
Ultimately, we must understand that armies fight wars on the basis of their own doctrines, which develop over time in response to specific challenges and experiences. Bewegungskrieg was the Prussian attempt to overcome specific Prussian problems. (24)
Learning to think intelligently about military theory and operational doctrines will allow us to view the situation in Ukraine more clearly, and avoid lazy, sloppy characterizations.

Please stop using the word Blitzkrieg. It's not real. (25)
Coda, as usual, to clarify the point: The lesson isn't that people need to say "Bewegungskrieg". Blitzkrieg rolls off the tongue better, and has common parlance in English. The point is to think about how warfighting doctrine evolves and incorporates technology.

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More from @witte_sergei

Dec 18
Thread: Verdun and the Lure of Attrition

This December 18th marks the 108th anniversary of the end of the Battle of Verdun - an infamously bloody episode of the First World War which killed over 700,000 French and German troops over nearly ten months of fighting. (1) Image
Verdun in many ways was the seminal First World War battle, in that it churned up dozens of divisions fighting for apparently meager gains of just a few kilometers. It appears at first brush to be entirely senseless, but the strategic conception deserves close scrutiny. (2) Image
By the end of 1915, German hopes for a quick resolution to the war had been firmly dashed. The initial command cadre had been replaced, and General Erich von Falkenhayn had taken command of the German general staff with an unenviable strategic position. (3) Image
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Drews basic argument is that the collapse of rich and stable late bronze age societies was due to the advent of new technical and tactical methodologies which made the aristocratic chariot armies of the day obsolete. (2)
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Oct 14
Maybe instead of arguing online about Columbus/Indigenous Peoples Day, you read this excellent book? This dismisses the myth of the helpless native and presents a coherent story of the European encounter with North America. Image
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Native Americans by and large did not see Europeans as alien intruders, but as a new chess piece in this power system. Europeans were integrated into the diplomatic web, and native tribes tried to leverage them against each other.
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So, the Russians hit Ukraine with one of the largest strike packages of the war - over 200 launches including drones and a wide spectrum of missiles. It looks like they mostly hit power generation and transmission, with a few military facilities sprinkled in. (1)
A few notable things that stand out against other strikes (besides the size) were hits on three separate 750kv substations in western Ukraine, including one in Vinnytsia. (2)
This is very important, because sufficient damage to transmission in the western oblasts will prevent Ukraine from importing European electricity to replace its own lost generation. They've relied heavily on imports to prop up their grid. (3)

kyivindependent.com/ukraine-import…
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To the extent that there is an over-arching strategic logic in Ukraine, I think they are trying to "prove" that NATO forces can enter into direct combat with Russia without a colossal escalation. This is the thread that links their more random strategic choices. (1)
"Look, we invaded Kursk and they didn't nuke us. We shot a missile at their early warning radar and they didn't nuke us. We launched a drone at the Kremlin and they didn't nuke us. It's all a bluff - feel free to deploy a French armored brigade to Kharkov." (2)
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Stalin was an ethnic Georgian from Gori. His mother was a devout Orthodox Christian who desperately wanted him to become a priest. His father was an alcoholic shoemaker. The big "secret" of Stalin is that he was a true believing communist with exceptional political skills.
The Soviet regime did perpetrate horrible crimes against the Orthodox church in Russia, but they did this because the church was a pillar of the parochial peasant civilization which they wanted to shatter, not because Stalin had a secret blood vendetta against Christians. Sorry.
I'm not like, some fan of Stalin, but you pretty much explain the guy via the fact that he was actually a communist who believed everything he said about Marxism-Leninism providing a solution to human want. He was a communist, and he was a peerless political operator. That's it.
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