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May 11, 2022 18 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Video of an apparent Ukrainian attack on a Russian tank on 6 May is getting much attention for the turret's attempt to go to the Moon. It should be getting a lot more attention, though, for where it happened and what this means for Russia. A short 🧵. /1
This attack wouldn't have been particularly remarkable if it had taken place on the front lines. It didn't. The site of the attack has been geolocated to near Novoazovsk, a town deep in the separatist "Donetsk People's Republic". /2 Image
The town has been under Russia/separatist control since 27 August 2014, when it was the scene of fighting (pictured below) during an attempted advance on Mariupol. It's 100 km inside separatist territory, and only 13 km from the Russian border. /3 Image
So how on earth did the Ukrainians blow up a tank this far inside separatist territory? It shows that Russia's worst nightmare in its occupied territory is coming true: a guerrilla war of roadside bombs, drones and loitering munitions - Iraq or Afghanistan on steroids. /4
It's not yet clear how this attack was carried out. Ukraine doesn't have any artillery that can reach that far, and there's no obvious sign in the video of incoming fire. Special forces were very likely involved. There are a few possible scenarios. /5
DRONES: Ukraine has been using octocopters (like the one pictured) to drop RKG-1600 grenades - anti-tank grenades of a 1950s design converted into aerial bombs by fitting 3D-printed fins. They can penetrate 200mm of armour, more than enough to destroy a tank. /6 Image
During testing, Ukrainian drone pilots were able to hit targets 1m wide from an altitude of 300m. This would certainly be accurate enough to destroy a tank, or as in this video, a BMP-3 (targeted with a drone-dropped mortar round). /7
IEDs: Improvised Explosive Devices were the bane of NATO forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, causing hundreds of deaths. Ukrainian troops served alongside NATO in both conflicts. They will certainly have learned how to defuse IEDs, and by extension how to make them (not too hard). /8
The Ukrainians have certainly used IEDs against Russian forces. In one notable incident, Ukrainian special forces used daisy-chained IEDs (probably using 152mm shells) to attack a Russian convoy, likely somewhere near Kyiv. /9
MINES: Landmines are easily transported and concealed on or off roads. Recently, Ukrainian forces have been using German-made PARM-1 off-road mines (pictured), compact but nasty weapons that sit in the bushes until a tank goes past. /10 Image
ATGMs: Ukraine has lots of anti-tank missiles, of course, but they need the operators to be quite close. I would be surprised if this was how it was done. /11
LOITERING MUNITIONS: Ukraine has recently taken delivery of US-made Switchblade 600 loitering munitions. These have a total range of 80 km. It's quite possible that Ukrainian units infiltrated Russian-held territory and used a Switchblade for a deep strike. /12 Image
So what does this all signify? Big trouble for Russia. The strip of territory it controls in southern Ukraine is only about 100 km wide. It's clearly vulnerable to infiltration, and the Russians are unpopular with the local people. It's ideal for insurgent tactics. /13 Image
Unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side. This makes them ideal for Ukraine, particularly given the already demonstrated weaknesses of the Russian occupiers. Ukrainian SOF have already shown themselves very proficient at this. /14
The attack at Novoazovsk is clearly a statement both of intent and capability: that Ukraine is capable of striking wherever it wants in occupied territory, and that it's willing to use insurgent tactics to do so. Western weapons will help with this. /15
Expect to see more attacks of this sort aimed at disrupting, demoralising and attriting Russian forces far behind the front lines. Ukraine clearly aims to show the Russians that they're not safe anywhere in the territory they hold. If I was the Russians, I'd be very worried. /end
Some people have been asking "how much does the turret weigh?" and "how high did it go?". Assuming it's a T-72, the turret plus gun weighs about 17 tons (the turret alone is 12 tons), and is about 7m (21 ft) long. I'd estimate it reached a height of at least 50m (~160 ft).

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Sep 27
1/ Russian self-propelled artillery has become increasingly rare on the front lines, due to its vulnerability to longer-ranged Western artillery systems and Ukrainian drone strikes. The gunners have reportedly been transferred to the infantry. ⬇️
2/ Russian war correspondent Maxim Kalashnikov reports:

"I met some guys from a neighboring company. Mobilised, they'd been at the front for over three years. They were in self-propelled artillery. They'd studied the vehicles thoroughly."
3/ "They started firing their obsolete and outdated guns more or less reliably. After all, each of these "pieces of iron" has its own peculiarities that must be taken into account for accurate shooting. So what? Now they're all in the infantry.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 27
1/ Russian soldiers and volunteers bringing 'humanitarian aid' are being systematically robbed at military checkpoints, according to Russian warbloggers. The culprits are the infamously corrupt military police (VP), who confiscate equipment for their own use or to resell. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Reserve Pioneer' writes of the situation at the checkpoints between Crimea and the occupied southern part of the Kherson region:
3/ "There are a lot of checkpoints on the Kherson border toward the spits, immediately after crossing the border. Deep in the rear (more than 200 km from the line of contact), there are military police, military commandant's offices, or riot police.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 26
1/ A Russian soldier has spoken of hellish conditions on the front line in Ukraine, with no evacuations of the wounded, rotting bodies lying around, no food or water for anybody, no pay, constant Ukrainian drone and mortar attacks, and suicidal orders from corrupt commanders. ⬇️


2/ Vladimir Anatolyevich Oskolkov from the 36th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade (military unit 06705) has recorded four videos from the front line, somewhere around Oleksandrohrad in the Donetsk region. The videos were recorded around 7 August after a failed attack.
3/ He says that his entire platoon was killed, but nobody was evacuating the frontline injured. "They are simply being sent to their deaths. If you get sick or something, they just send you to hell. Our prosecutor's office is completely inactive [regarding appeals for help]."
Read 20 tweets
Sep 26
1/ The Russian authorities reportedly believe that a collision this morning between a fuel train and a truck, which caused a massive fire, may have been sabotage. If so, Ukraine's campaign against Russian fuel supplies may be going beyond drone strikes. ⬇️
2/ The crash happened at 07:26 when an 18-car freight train collided with a truck on the R-120 federal highway at kilometer 439 of the Rudnya-Golynki section of the Moscow Railway in the Rudnyansky District of the Smolensk Region. 16 of the cars overturned and caught fire. Image
Image
3/ The truck was reported to have crossed the tracks against a red light. The as yet unidentified truck driver died, while the train driver and his assistant were injured but refused hospitalisation. The train was carrying fuel and lubricants, apparently from Belarus.
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Sep 26
1/ Tired, depressed, and angry Russian soldiers mobilised in 2022 have been reflecting on their three years at war. "I feel like I'm in The Hunger Games", one remarks. Others speculate that the Russian government wants to exterminate ethnic Russians. ⬇️
2/ Many soldiers don't understand why the war has dragged on for so long and have turned to conspiracy theories to try to explain it. Some blame the Ukrainians, others blame the Russian government, or the West, or Muslim immigrants from Central Asia.
3/ One asks: "With whom are we negotiating peace? With mercenaries? With those who smash markets and civilian homes with HIMARS? Or perhaps with those who glorify the swastika and the ideas of the Third Reich?"
Read 25 tweets
Sep 26
1/ Russia appears to be running out of surface-to-air missiles, with air defence crews having to be reassigned to the infantry because they have nothing to fire. ⬇️
2/ The Russian military correspondent Maxim Kalashnikov writes that he recently met air defence specialists who had been sent to fight in the infantry after spending the last two years crewing the Soviet-era Buk air defence system.
3/ "Professional air defence specialists in the infantry. Not convicts, not drunks, not ‘Sochi boys’. In other words, not deserters from the army. But in the infantry! Someone has to serve in the infantry too.
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