ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
May 11, 2022 18 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Video of an apparent Ukrainian attack on a Russian tank on 6 May is getting much attention for the turret's attempt to go to the Moon. It should be getting a lot more attention, though, for where it happened and what this means for Russia. A short 🧵. /1
This attack wouldn't have been particularly remarkable if it had taken place on the front lines. It didn't. The site of the attack has been geolocated to near Novoazovsk, a town deep in the separatist "Donetsk People's Republic". /2 Image
The town has been under Russia/separatist control since 27 August 2014, when it was the scene of fighting (pictured below) during an attempted advance on Mariupol. It's 100 km inside separatist territory, and only 13 km from the Russian border. /3 Image
So how on earth did the Ukrainians blow up a tank this far inside separatist territory? It shows that Russia's worst nightmare in its occupied territory is coming true: a guerrilla war of roadside bombs, drones and loitering munitions - Iraq or Afghanistan on steroids. /4
It's not yet clear how this attack was carried out. Ukraine doesn't have any artillery that can reach that far, and there's no obvious sign in the video of incoming fire. Special forces were very likely involved. There are a few possible scenarios. /5
DRONES: Ukraine has been using octocopters (like the one pictured) to drop RKG-1600 grenades - anti-tank grenades of a 1950s design converted into aerial bombs by fitting 3D-printed fins. They can penetrate 200mm of armour, more than enough to destroy a tank. /6 Image
During testing, Ukrainian drone pilots were able to hit targets 1m wide from an altitude of 300m. This would certainly be accurate enough to destroy a tank, or as in this video, a BMP-3 (targeted with a drone-dropped mortar round). /7
IEDs: Improvised Explosive Devices were the bane of NATO forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, causing hundreds of deaths. Ukrainian troops served alongside NATO in both conflicts. They will certainly have learned how to defuse IEDs, and by extension how to make them (not too hard). /8
The Ukrainians have certainly used IEDs against Russian forces. In one notable incident, Ukrainian special forces used daisy-chained IEDs (probably using 152mm shells) to attack a Russian convoy, likely somewhere near Kyiv. /9
MINES: Landmines are easily transported and concealed on or off roads. Recently, Ukrainian forces have been using German-made PARM-1 off-road mines (pictured), compact but nasty weapons that sit in the bushes until a tank goes past. /10 Image
ATGMs: Ukraine has lots of anti-tank missiles, of course, but they need the operators to be quite close. I would be surprised if this was how it was done. /11
LOITERING MUNITIONS: Ukraine has recently taken delivery of US-made Switchblade 600 loitering munitions. These have a total range of 80 km. It's quite possible that Ukrainian units infiltrated Russian-held territory and used a Switchblade for a deep strike. /12 Image
So what does this all signify? Big trouble for Russia. The strip of territory it controls in southern Ukraine is only about 100 km wide. It's clearly vulnerable to infiltration, and the Russians are unpopular with the local people. It's ideal for insurgent tactics. /13 Image
Unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side. This makes them ideal for Ukraine, particularly given the already demonstrated weaknesses of the Russian occupiers. Ukrainian SOF have already shown themselves very proficient at this. /14
The attack at Novoazovsk is clearly a statement both of intent and capability: that Ukraine is capable of striking wherever it wants in occupied territory, and that it's willing to use insurgent tactics to do so. Western weapons will help with this. /15
Expect to see more attacks of this sort aimed at disrupting, demoralising and attriting Russian forces far behind the front lines. Ukraine clearly aims to show the Russians that they're not safe anywhere in the territory they hold. If I was the Russians, I'd be very worried. /end
Some people have been asking "how much does the turret weigh?" and "how high did it go?". Assuming it's a T-72, the turret plus gun weighs about 17 tons (the turret alone is 12 tons), and is about 7m (21 ft) long. I'd estimate it reached a height of at least 50m (~160 ft).

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with ChrisO_wiki

ChrisO_wiki Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ChrisO_wiki

Sep 2
1/ Russian warbloggers continue to be furious that, as one puts it, "our oil refineries continue to leave the chat". They are turning their anger on "oil barons" who, they suspect, are happy to see refineries exploding if it boosts their profits. ⬇️
2/ As the Russian government appears powerless to stop an intensive Ukrainian campaign against the country's refineries, warbloggers are now shifting to blaming the country's oil producers for failing to protect their own facilities.
3/ 'Veterans' Notes' comments:

"The enemy continues to systematically attack Russia's oil and gas infrastructure. According to experts, about 21% of all oil and gas refineries and stations have already been damaged or destroyed.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 1
1/ The Russian army has experienced a 20-fold increase in HIV cases compared to pre-war figures, according to Russian military doctors. Soldiers who have been infected with HIV and hepatitis C blame drug abuse and a widespread disregard for basic medical hygiene. ⬇️ Image
2/ An article in the Russian Ministry of Defence's Military Medical Journal reports a huge increase in the number of soldiers with detected cases of HIV, and the likelihood of a much larger number of undetected cases.
3/ The vast majority of infections have happened among contract servicemen (99.8% of the total), with 93.5% being regular soldiers and sailors (93.5%), and the rest comprised of officers (4.4%), warrant officers and midshipmen (1.8%), and cadets (0.1%).
Read 27 tweets
Sep 1
1/ An alleged kingpin of Russia's infamous cemetery mafia has been arrested. The Mayor of Vladimir is suspected of links to organised crime groups that have taken over Russia's funeral business, which is enjoying a boom due to the Ukraine war. ⬇️
2/ Organised crime gangs have used violence and arson to drive legitimate funeral firms out of business and take over cemeteries and even entire hospitals, often fleecing relatives for things that are supposed to be free, such as burial plots.
3/ This has been done in conjunction with corrupt officials in local administrations, ranging from clerks to mayors. The latter have typically provided 'krysha' ('cover') to the cemetery mafia, protecting them from investigation in exchange for a share of the profits.
Read 18 tweets
Sep 1
1/ As Moldova approaches a crucial parliamentary election, the Russian official responsible for election interference has reportedly been sacked and replaced. An investigation is said to have been opened into the theft of funds designated for vote-rigging. ⬇️ Image
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that Dmitry Milyutin, the deputy head of the Fifth Service of the FSB, has been removed "based on the results of an organisational inspection," but in reality for failing to rig the Moldovan presidential election in Russia's favour.
3/ The election, which was held in two rounds concluding on 3 November 2024, was won by incumbent Maia Sandu, with a pro-Russian candidate winning 44.65% of the votes.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 1
1/ The constant threat of Ukrainian drone strikes and tougher restrictions imposed by the Russian army on troop movements in the rear now mean that Russian soldiers in occupied Ukraine live "almost like [in] a penal colony", according to a serving Russian soldier. ⬇️ Image
2/ Recent moves by the Russian military administration in occupied parts of Ukraine (known as "the Zone") have drastically reduced the freedom of Russian soldiers serving there, with infractions being punished by sending offenders into suicidal assaults.
3/ The author of the 'Vault No. 8' Telegram channel writes about the current situation in the distant rear, closer to the Russian border:
Read 25 tweets
Aug 31
1/ At least 250 Russian soldiers a day are being declared missing or dead by the courts, equivalent to the declared daily losses of the Russian army at the front. Although at least 50,000 men are missing, the Russian government is doing little to help relatives. ⬇️ Image
2/ Mediazona and Meduza report that by the beginning of August 2025, families of missing soldiers had filed about 50,000 claims to declare their relatives dead, so that they can obtain compensation. The vast majority of the missing are indeed likely to be deceased.
3/ The number of missing is almost certainly far higher than 50,000, due to a number of factors highlighted by Russian warblogger Anastasia Kashevarova. She complains that even now, the Russian military does not have a proper system for tracking them:
Read 27 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(