ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
May 11, 2022 18 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Video of an apparent Ukrainian attack on a Russian tank on 6 May is getting much attention for the turret's attempt to go to the Moon. It should be getting a lot more attention, though, for where it happened and what this means for Russia. A short 🧵. /1
This attack wouldn't have been particularly remarkable if it had taken place on the front lines. It didn't. The site of the attack has been geolocated to near Novoazovsk, a town deep in the separatist "Donetsk People's Republic". /2 Image
The town has been under Russia/separatist control since 27 August 2014, when it was the scene of fighting (pictured below) during an attempted advance on Mariupol. It's 100 km inside separatist territory, and only 13 km from the Russian border. /3 Image
So how on earth did the Ukrainians blow up a tank this far inside separatist territory? It shows that Russia's worst nightmare in its occupied territory is coming true: a guerrilla war of roadside bombs, drones and loitering munitions - Iraq or Afghanistan on steroids. /4
It's not yet clear how this attack was carried out. Ukraine doesn't have any artillery that can reach that far, and there's no obvious sign in the video of incoming fire. Special forces were very likely involved. There are a few possible scenarios. /5
DRONES: Ukraine has been using octocopters (like the one pictured) to drop RKG-1600 grenades - anti-tank grenades of a 1950s design converted into aerial bombs by fitting 3D-printed fins. They can penetrate 200mm of armour, more than enough to destroy a tank. /6 Image
During testing, Ukrainian drone pilots were able to hit targets 1m wide from an altitude of 300m. This would certainly be accurate enough to destroy a tank, or as in this video, a BMP-3 (targeted with a drone-dropped mortar round). /7
IEDs: Improvised Explosive Devices were the bane of NATO forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, causing hundreds of deaths. Ukrainian troops served alongside NATO in both conflicts. They will certainly have learned how to defuse IEDs, and by extension how to make them (not too hard). /8
The Ukrainians have certainly used IEDs against Russian forces. In one notable incident, Ukrainian special forces used daisy-chained IEDs (probably using 152mm shells) to attack a Russian convoy, likely somewhere near Kyiv. /9
MINES: Landmines are easily transported and concealed on or off roads. Recently, Ukrainian forces have been using German-made PARM-1 off-road mines (pictured), compact but nasty weapons that sit in the bushes until a tank goes past. /10 Image
ATGMs: Ukraine has lots of anti-tank missiles, of course, but they need the operators to be quite close. I would be surprised if this was how it was done. /11
LOITERING MUNITIONS: Ukraine has recently taken delivery of US-made Switchblade 600 loitering munitions. These have a total range of 80 km. It's quite possible that Ukrainian units infiltrated Russian-held territory and used a Switchblade for a deep strike. /12 Image
So what does this all signify? Big trouble for Russia. The strip of territory it controls in southern Ukraine is only about 100 km wide. It's clearly vulnerable to infiltration, and the Russians are unpopular with the local people. It's ideal for insurgent tactics. /13 Image
Unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side. This makes them ideal for Ukraine, particularly given the already demonstrated weaknesses of the Russian occupiers. Ukrainian SOF have already shown themselves very proficient at this. /14
The attack at Novoazovsk is clearly a statement both of intent and capability: that Ukraine is capable of striking wherever it wants in occupied territory, and that it's willing to use insurgent tactics to do so. Western weapons will help with this. /15
Expect to see more attacks of this sort aimed at disrupting, demoralising and attriting Russian forces far behind the front lines. Ukraine clearly aims to show the Russians that they're not safe anywhere in the territory they hold. If I was the Russians, I'd be very worried. /end
Some people have been asking "how much does the turret weigh?" and "how high did it go?". Assuming it's a T-72, the turret plus gun weighs about 17 tons (the turret alone is 12 tons), and is about 7m (21 ft) long. I'd estimate it reached a height of at least 50m (~160 ft).

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

May 30
1/ Jimmy is absolutely correct about this, and I want to point out something that a lot of people don't seem to have addressed: what happens if the drone operator lets this guy go?
2/ He's not going to hang up his gun and go back to Russia to live the rest of his life in peace. Even if he wants to, his own side will imprison and torture him until he agrees to rejoin the assault squads. This is what will happen to him:
3/ Or his commanders might simply decide to execute ("zero out") him.

The only way this man is leaving the war is if he's dead or too badly injured to continue fighting - nothing less than the loss of a limb will do (and sometimes not even then).
Read 6 tweets
May 30
1/ Evidence reportedly from the scene of the assassination of the deputy mayor of Stavropol, former Russian army major Zaur Gurtsiev, suggests that the bomb which killed him and his companion Nikola Penkov was remotely detonated. ⬇️
2/ A circuit board, reportedly found at the scene by Russian police investigators, is shown in a photograph published by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. According to the channel: Image
3/ "The part is identical to those used in mechanisms for opening a barrier (by remote control or by phone). Batteries were also installed in the explosive device (fragments were found at the scene),...
Read 7 tweets
May 29
1/ The killer of the deputy mayor of Stavropol, former Russian army major Zaur Gurtsiev, is reported to have been a man whom he met on a gay dating website. The man, Nikita Penkov, may not have known he was carrying a bomb. ⬇️
2/ Apparent details from the police investigation have been reported by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. According to the channel, Gurtsiev met Penkov on a gay dating website. The two were said to have been meeting for the first time in a discreet nighttime rendezvous.
3/ "During the investigation, explicit correspondence was found, where they sent each other naked photos, etc.
Read 12 tweets
May 28
1/ This graph from @JonBruner tells an important story: America's current dominance in science only began after the mid-1930s, when persecuted scientists began fleeing universities in Germany and then elsewhere in occupied Europe. Image
2/ Note especially the complete lack of German Nobel Prizes in physics between around 1933 and the 1950s. Hitler specifically persecuted "Jewish physics", prompting Einstein and others to flee to the US (enabling the US to build the atomic bomb, so it was very consequential).
3/ The current anti-science movement in the US has a similar hatred of entire fields, especially climate science and medical science. The whole government-funded scientific enterprise is being systematically defunded, but those fields seem to be particularly singled out.
Read 6 tweets
May 26
1/ While the Ukrainians welcome home their exchanged prisoners of war, Russian warbloggers criticise their own POWs for not having died fighting and call for them to be interrogated and/or prosecuted for surrendering. ⬇️
2/ The exchange of 1000 Ukrainian POWs for 1000 Russians has prompted some remarkably sour reflections from Russian warbloggers, who appear to consider the released Russian POWs to be little more than deserters or traitors.
3/ 'Sladkov+' acknowledges the need to publicly show the return of POWs, but says that "there is no need for pomp. Captivity is not the primary act of valour during the Special Military Operation. The wounded can be greeted like this from hospitals."
Read 13 tweets
May 25
1/ An announcement that Russia's new BT-3F is entering testing has been met with hostility by Russian warbloggers, who accuse its makers of ignoring lessons from the Ukraine war. "Just copy the Bradley," one urges. ⬇️
2/ The BT-3F is meant to combine characteristics of the BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle with those of the airmobile BMD vehicles used by the Russian airborne forces. However, neither vehicle has performed particularly well in Ukraine, especially against drones.
3/ Its makers Rostec say that "the BT-3F floating armored personnel carrier, created on the basis of the BMP-3 , has entered the state testing stage."
Read 17 tweets

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