This map was direct messaged to me and was taken from a forum. It is a heat map of Russian SIM cards roaming Ukrainian cellphone networks. Logistics Thread🧵
This is symbolic of several things.
1. Why you have to take away cellphones from your troops before battle. 1/
2. What Ukraine knows about Russian troops movements.
3. The collapse of the good order and discipline of the Russian Army, because every single Russian soldier knows a cellphone collected by the Army is a cellphone stolen.
Especially when you stole it from Ukrainians 1st.
2/
It is that last fact which lead me to post this thread.
There is no possible Russian Army countermeasure because their army's discipline is gone.
This is the price Russia pays for bad logistics.
3/
When the Russian high command ordered their army to forage off of Ukraine March 11th 2022, because their logistics failed.
They made that heat map inevitable, exploitable and irrevocable.
4/End
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This Ukrainian road is raised above the countryside because the soil under the road had to be engineered/graded in several layers of rock, gravel & sand to support that road weight & not to melt into the countryside during a mud season.
2/
The destruction of over 4000 vehicles of all types primarily on Ukrainian roads makes each kilometer or mile of road travel effectively much longer because of the need to slow down and drive gingerly near such wrecks.
3/
If you are not watching developments in Sri Lanka. Start now.
This is what "food insecurity" really means.
This is why Russia's invasion of Ukraine has world wide effects, because losing Ukraine's grain exports prices food too high for poor folks less developed nations. 1/
It's traditional for the US voting public to burn in a wicker basket whomever is President & his party for bad economic times.
Given the poisonous nature of current US politics, running out of diesel on the East Coast while sending $40 billion of lend lease military supplies
2/
...to Ukraine will get blamed on Pres. Biden.
Plus it will splash heavily all over the Washington DC national security/foreign policy political consensus to help Ukraine after Nov 2022.
Pres. Biden, plus his Secretaries of Transportation, Commerce, & Energy need to be
3/
Pay close attention to the Rail line at the upper right on this map.🧵
Ukraine cutting it by occupation, or by artillery fire will, cause a huge "Stalingrad side-step" in terms of the Russian Army having to use more eastern rail lines to supply the Donbas offensive.
The Ukrainians are big believers in "Shaping Operations," that is, small military operations that open up options of further military operations later.
For example, the destruction of Moskva and it's S-300F long range surface to air missiles by a Neptun cruise missile strike
2/
...was a gambit to opened up Snake Island to Bayraktar TB2 drone raids.
With the Moskva gone, Ukrainian TB2's proceeded to destroy Russian SAM's on Snake Island.
The Russians reinforced with more SAM's & men on landing craft, which TB2's destroyed during the landing.
3/
This is going to be a long thread🧵 on Ukraine's unique 21st century fighting style based on Uber style C3I software, why Western intelligence is plug ignorant of it due to CROWDSTRIKE cybersecurity firm, & the implications of SpaceX's Starlink satcom for the future...
1/
...of warfare & politics. This is going to be a wild thread, so buckle up.
First we need to talk about Ukraine's "GIS Art for Artillery" software package written by Yaroslav Sherstyuk.
Sherstyuk's software package is reminiscent Uber or Lyft's taxi software in that assigns targets to the nearest gun, mortar, rocket launcher, Aerosvidzka drone or SF team.