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May 12 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Elementary Putinology for Western appeasers. It is striking how neither bleeding-heart liberals nor diehard realists understand the authoritarian kleptocrat Putin. Let us go through common misconceptions.
1. “Escalation:” What Putin always does until he has won or been defeated. We must not avoid escalation but make sure that Ukraine wins.
2. “We must not provoke Putin:” Putin has started this unprovoked war, but we must not provoke him? This is to call for Ukraine’s defeat.
3. “We must allow Putin to save face:” Really? Do you support crimes against humanity? Putin must be defeated.
4. “Off-ramp:” Does not exist in Putin’s terminology. He is only interested in victory.
5. “Ukraine must negotiate with Putin:” No, Putin has persistently refused to meet or negotiate with President Zelensky since December 2019. Putin has violated lots of Russia’s international agreements for the last decades, so why bother to conclude any agreement with him?
6. “Ukraine should declare itself neutral and promise not to join NATO:” Ukraine has been neutral all along and had no prospect of NATO membership. Therefore, Putin dared to attack Ukraine. The only credible security guarantee for Ukraine is NATO membership.
7. “Ceasefire:” Does not apply to Russia, only an opportunity to regroup.

8. “International law:” Does not apply to Russia, only to everybody else.

9. “Genocide:” Can only hurt Russians and cannot be carried out by Russians.
10. “Minsk accords:” Device to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty with the help of Germany and France while Russia gathered strength for a new assault on Ukraine.
11. “We should not box Putin into a corner:” Would you have said the same about yesterday’s Putin who was called Hitler?
12. “We must not destabilize Russia:” Putin is the main destabilizing factor in Russia and Europe. This is really an argument for the ouster of Putin.
The only conclusive outcome of Putin’s war against Ukraine is that Ukraine recovers all its territory from February 2014 and that Putin loses power in one way or the other. If Putin wins, he will proceed to other countries.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 13
Ukraine's head of military intelligence, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, says the war with Russia is going so well, that it will reach a turning point by mid-August and be over by the end of the year.
news.sky.com/story/ukraine-…
"Budanov also said a coup to remove Vladimir Putin is already under way in Russia and the Russian leader is seriously ill with cancer."
Budanov "said he was not surprised by Russia's setbacks in the war.
"We know everything about our enemy. We know about their plans almost as they're being made.
"We have been fighting Russia for eight years and we can say that this highly publicised Russian power is a myth."
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 13
Reading the US newspapers the last couple of days, I am as usual surprised by the parochialism of the US professional commentators.
1. Ukraine is winning the war against Russia. We (the West) must help them to do so as fast as possible but deliver all potent arms Ukraine needs.
2. Ukraine cleaned out the Russians around Kyiv & in northern Ukraine. Now they appear to be doing so around Kharkiv.
3. The next Ukrainian step should be to cut off the land bridge to Crimea around Kherson. For that Ukraine needs Western long-range howitzers.
4. Then comes the cleaning up of Donbas, where Ukraine is currently under pressure.
5. To judge from the daily Ukrainian assessments, Ukraine has incredibly taken out 2/3 of the Russian forces deployed to Ukraine. For how long can the Russians continue? Probably not long.
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 13
The US shortage of baby formula illustrates major general problems with the US food & drug industry.
1. As so many US industries, the baby formula industry is more monopolized than should be allowed.
cnn.com/2022/05/12/pol…
2. Big food & drug companies are very poorly inspected: "A former employee sent detailed allegations to the FDA that Abbott [Nutrition] was hiding safety issues months before formula was recalled."
3. Rather than fixing the problem, big companies tend to pressurize FDA: "Abbott said on Wednesday that it could restart production at the Michigan facility, pending US Food and Drug Administration approval, within two weeks."
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 11
Having just returned to Washington after a week in Europe, I am amazed to hear know-nothings calling for a negotiated solution with Russia, Ukrainian land sacrifices, face-saving devices for Putin & "off-ramps" for Putin. In what world do these people live? No real world...
Let us talk reality:
1. Putin has to be beaten. Otherwise, he will soon start another war.
2. Putin has violated every agreement he or Russia have ever concluded. Therefore, it is meaningless to try to conclude any agreement with him & harmful to do so.
3. Putin is probably the leading war criminal in the world. His face must not be saved. He must be defeated & preferably sentenced for crimes against humanity.
4. Putin lies all the time & seems to have no sense of reality. Why talk to such an idiot?
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 9
A brief, defensive & comparatively soft speech by Putin on "Victory Day."
Putin defines his aim as defensive: "Openly, preparations were underway for another punitive operation in the Donbass, for an invasion of our historical lands, including Crimea."
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Putin: "The NATO bloc began active military development of the territories adjacent to us.

Thus, a threat that was absolutely unacceptable to us was systematically created, moreover, directly at our borders."
Putin: "Everything indicated that a clash with neo-Nazis, Banderovtsy, on whom the United States and their younger partners staked, would be inevitable."
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
May 8
Observations on Russia's war in Ukraine.
1. In spite of 3 weeks of intense Russian attacks in Donbas, the front has barely moved since April 1. Russia has suffered big losses, but not as much as early on & the Ukrainians are holding up, though also at big costs from Ru artillery.
2. The main change seems to be that Ukraine has liberated the suburbs of Kharkiv & possibly cut off the supply line from Belgorod.
3. Russia continues to terror bomb the whole of Ukraine but less intensively than before.
4. A big change is frequent explosions & fires in Russia - close to the border (ammunition & fuel), around Moscow (strategic targets) & all over the country. Nobody takes responsibility but this looks like substantial Ukrainian sabotage activity.
Read 9 tweets

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