Thread by @ulrichspeck

Ukrainian president Zelensky says Macron tried to push him to make "concessions on our sovereignty in order to help Putin save his face". uawire.org/zelensky-macro…

In his speech on May 9 he said: ""It is up to Ukraine alone to define the conditions for negotiations with Russia. But our duty is to stand with Ukraine to achieve the ceasefire, then build peace."

https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1525083227723124739

On the same day Macron warned twice against "humiliating" Russia.

The biggest question: is Macron freelancing, or is this agreed with:
- Germany?
- Brussels?
- Washington?

Macron was visiting Scholz on 9 May. On 11 May Scholz spoke with Selensky on the phone. Today Scholz talked to Putin and called for a ceasefire and "progress" in the search for a diplomatic solution.

We can assume that Macron and Scholz are on the same page -- more or less.

Zelensky probably went public with this information because he felt cornered.

All this pretty much echoes the Normandy format; Macron and Scholz seem to think that the end of this war will be some kind of Minsk III, just on a larger scale -- negotiated by France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia.

The foreign policy advisor of Scholz, Jens Plötner, was Frank-Walter Steinmeier's chief of staff and in that role deeply involved in the Minsk I and II negotiations.

US secretary defense also called for an "immediate ceasefire" -- like Scholz.

https://twitter.com/AntonLaGuardia/status/1525130760335904768

Does that mean that Macron's initiative was agreed with both, Berlin and Washington? If so, what kind of negotiation mandate was agreed? Did Macron perhaps overstep this by trying to push Zelensky into concessions?

Whatever happened, it failed. Zelensky felt pressured by Macron and went public -- probably to make sure that Macron understands that this won't fly.

But this episode tells us a lot about the emerging conflict between those who want the war to end quickly and those who think it must end with Ukraine not loosing much territory, or winning back some it has lost in 2014/15.

The longer this conflict drags on, the more the tensions between those camps are likely to rise.

My view is that when Russia is winning some or much territory, the ceasefire or peace won't be sustainable, because Russia will feel encouraged, with regards to its methods (war of aggression and conquest) and its goals (re-establishment of empire).

Russia's methods and goals must be frustrated, otherwise Russia will just use the break to prepare itself for the next, third round against Ukraine. We would be back at war rather earlier than later.