Ukraine has almost expelled Russian forces on the east side of Kharkiv City from northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukraine's General Staff confirmed reports that Ukrainian forces are in Ternova, less than 2 miles from the international border. A thread on map updates for @TheStudyofWar.
1. We extended Ukrainian counteroffensives to Petrivka and Ternova in Kharkiv Oblast given the Ukrainian General Staff report of 1800 May 13 stated that Russian forces fired on Ukrainian positions in these areas. (Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…)
This is the first official claim we've observed to substantiate previous reports that Ukrainian forces retook Ternova and Petrivka.
2. We recessed Russian assessed control of terrain in north Kharkiv Oblast given the new confirmed Ukrainian positions in Petrivka and Ternova. We recessed it to Vesele in Kharkiv Oblast given the Ukrainian general Staff report of 0600 May 13 stated that Russian forces did not...
conduct offensive operations in the direction of Kharkiv City but focused main efforts on preventing Ukrainian advances toward Vesele. (Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…)
It's worth noting that Russian positions inside Vesele are outside of the 25 kilometer effective range for Russian tube artillery to strike Kharkiv City.
3. We expanded assessed Russian advance to the outskirts of Zolote and Hirske in Luhansk Oblast given Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces attempted attack these settlements. (Sources: t.me/luhanskaVTSA/2…; t.me/luhanskaVTSA/2…)
4. We expanded assessed Russian advance in Neskuchne in Donetsk Oblast after social media users geolocating Russian forces there. (S/o to @GeoConfirmed) (Source:
5. We slightly expanded assessed Russian advances and control in Mariupol north of the Azovstal factory after social media users geolocated Russian forces there. Sources:
Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces entered Verbove on September 22 & continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24.
Russian sources also indicate that Ukrainian forces are operating north of Verbove.
Tactical report thread w/ sources.🧵
A Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) -affiliated source reported that Ukrainian forces entered Verbove for the first time on September 22 and continued pushing east.
In our newest special edition for @TheStudyofWar, our team assesses that Ukraine's defensive and counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area since summer 2022 are an operationally sound undertaking.
Ukraine's sustained operations in Bakhmut have fixed a large amount of Russian combat power that would otherwise have been available to reinforce Russian defenses in southern Ukraine.
This significant Ukrainian achievement has helped prevent Russia from creating a large mobile VDV operational reserve that could have been used to stop the main Ukrainian counteroffensive effort in Zaporizhia Oblast.
Ukrainian forces are making tactical gains NW of Verbove.
Ukrainian forces likely pinched off / are pinching off a tactical salient that they made NW of Verbove where Russian fortifications are notably less developed & not as well connected to communications.
Geolocated footage posted on September 7 shows Russian forces striking a new Ukrainian position in a treeline northwest of Verbove, indicating Ukrainian advances.
Satellite imagery collected on September 6 shows fires in a tree line ~ 1km northwest of the confirmed Ukrainian advance from the footage posted on September 6. This imagery indicates that either Ukrainian forces either advanced into here and were struck by Russians or that...
The new geolocated footage (h/t @moklasen) shows Ukrainian foot-mobile infantry of the 82nd Brigade, likely reconnaissance elements, operating just west of Verbove.
The new footage shows no evidence that these forces have heavy equipment behind the trench or dragon's teeth.
The absence of heavy equipment suggests infiltration, not a breach. The 82nd may have breached it, but that confirmation will come when we see larger units or heavy equipment beyond a small unit of foot mobiles.
Russian sources also claim that there has been no breach yet.
Ukrainian forces may be attempting to breach the Russian tank ditch between Verbove and Robotyne.
Quick Thread.
NASA's VIIRS sensor picked up heat anomalies next to a segment of the tank ditch on August 27 near 35.9136801°E 47.4222758°N.
(Imagery here shows August 25 vs 28)
Imagery collected on August 28 shows extensive brush burns marks near the tank ditch and even some burns between the ditch and the dragon's teeth (circled in red).
An alternative hypothesis is that these observed burns could be from Ukrainian indirect fire against Russian forces in the area, but I think that's unlikely given Russian forces are deployed in the hedgerows and fighting positions largely separate of the tank ditches.
Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine and are making some tactical gains, including the liberation of Staromayorske in Donetsk Oblast.
A short thread on today's map changes for @TheStudyofWar.
1. Ukrainian forces liberated Staromayorske on July 27. The Russian positions in Urozhane are precariously held by a river bank. I suspect Russian forces will retrograde from or be beaten out of the Urozhane in the near future.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Mayar stated on July 27 that Ukrainian forces captured Staromayorske. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on July 27 that Ukrainian forces...